This column is a lot more fun to write after Purdue wins games. That three game losing streak that knocked us from the top 5 and out of first in the Big Ten put a real damper on what was supposed to be a very special season. Fortunately, it still can be. Barring an absolute collapse Purdue will make the NCAA Tournament for the 11th straight season (a new school record, BTW). That means no matter what, it will have a chance at reaching another Final Four.
Before we get into the non-conference opponents’ update, let’s take a look at Braden Smith’s pursuit of the NCAA assists record. He has fallen off the pace a bit. Despite having 12 assists in the loss to Illinois he has been held to six or less in four of the past five games. At minimum, he has 11 games left, and with 954 career assists he would need to average just over 11 per game if Purdue loses in the first round of the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments. Assuming Purdue plays at least two games in each (a fair assumption), the average drops to 9.38, which is much closer to his season average of 8.8.
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Another interesting factor is Purdue’s current position in the Big Ten. Should Purdue finish outside the top four of the regular season standings (possible with Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, and Nebraska doing so well) it would receive only a double bye to the Big Ten Tournament, not a triple bye (all 18 teams are invited this year so we can have a riveting Oregon vs. Rutgers game on Tuesday night three full days before the real teams even need to show up). That means he could pick up an extra game, giving him a maximum of 19 left should Purdue be a 5-8 seed in Chicago, reach the Big Ten tourney final, and still reach the NCAA final.
Braden is currently tied for 9th place all-time with Kansas’ Aaron Myers. Right now he could potentially become just the fifth player ever with 1,000 assists against Indiana on February 20th or Michigan State February 26th. On Saturday against Oregon he can pass Tony Miller of Marquette (956) and Sherman Douglas of Syracuse (960) to move into 7th place. Personally, I think Purdue needs at least five postseason games for him to have a real shot at the record, but that is very possible, if not likely. Say Purdue gets the five seed in the Big Ten Tournament and that extra game in Chicago. Right now that would mean a Thursday game against Indiana or Washington, one that Purdue would really need to win before facing one of the big four at the top. It would then need to reach at least the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament, where he would be close. He should easily get to No. 2 (North Carolina State’s Chris Corchiani, 1,038) by the end of the regular season.
Now, onto Purdue’s profile. The win at Alabama is still solid, but has lost a little luster as the Tide has fallen to 14-7. The wins over Texas Tech and Auburn still have value, while Akron continues to be a surprisingly strong win.
There are also plenty of chances left climb back to the top seed line. The Boilermakers still have games left against Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska as top 15 teams. In fact, depending on what Indiana does (they are currently at 32 in the NET) seven of Purdue’s last nine games would be Tier 1 NET wins. The only ones not on tier 1 would be Oregon and Wisconsin (at home. The road win would still easily be tier 1). More importantly, all four losses are safely tier 1 losses and are very likely to stay that way. The only “bad” loss Purdue can now take is Saturday at home vs. Oregon.
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If Purdue gets back to the top line it will earn it, likely as Big Ten Champion too.
Purdue Boilermakers Profile
Record: 18-4, 8-3 Big Ten
NET: 8 (up three from last week)
KenPom: 9 (Down 1 from last week
Bracket Matrix Consensus Seed: 3
Tier 1 Wins (KenPom) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 19 Iowa (Home), 21 Alabama (Away), 22 Texas Tech (neutral), 26 Auburn (neutral), 39 Wisconsin (away), 48 USC (Away)
Tier 2 Wins (KenPom): Home 31-75 Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 46 Washington (Home), 52 Akron (Home)
Tier 1 Wins (NET) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 20 Texas Tech (Neutral), 22 Alabama (Away), 21 Iowa (Home), 29 Auburn (Neutral), 42 Wisconsin (Away), 47 USC (Away)
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Tier 2: Home 31-75 (NET) Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 53 Akron (Home), 48 Washington (Home)
Bad Losses (Sub-100 NET or KenPom): None
Evansville Purple Aces (5-18, 1-11 MVC) – NET 296, KenPom 302 – Not much to say here. Evansville’s lone conference win is over Indiana State on January 10th and in the last week they lost at home to the Trees 84-63, at Northern Iowa 71-55, and at Drake 82-78. They head to Valpo Friday night.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (14-10, 10-3 Horizon) – NET 119, KenPom 117 – Oakland did beat Purdue… Fort Wayne 74-65 and Northern Kentucky 76-65 and they sit a half game behind Wright State in the Horizon League. They will be favorites in every game until the league tourney, where they hope to get a third shot at Wright State.
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Alabama Crimson Tide (14-7, 4-4 SEC) – NET 22, KenPom 21 – Alabama got blown out at Florida on Sunday 100-77 and they are now at .500 in the SEC before facing league leader Texas A&M tonight.
Akron Zips (19-4, 10-1 MAC) – NET 53, KenPom 52 – Akron has now won nine straight after beating Kent State 69-52 and Eastern Michigan 66-64. The best case scenario for the MAC right now is Miami running the table before losing to Akron in the conference title game, thus giving the conference two bids.
Memphis Tigers (10-11, 5-4 American) – NET 111, KenPom 103 – After a split this past week Memphis is inching close to that 100 line, which would make them a tier 2 win if they can get over it. They beat Florida Atlantic 92-65 on Thursday but lost at home to Tulane 78-76 Sunday.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (16-6, 6-3 Big 12) – NET 20, KenPom 22 – The value of this win has cooled slightly as the Red Raiders have lost two in a row to Central Florida (88-80) and Kansas (64-61). It is still Purdue’s best non-con win of the year.
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Eastern Illinois Panthers (9-14, 5-7 Ohio Valley) – NET 316, KenPom 322 – Losses to Tennessee-Martin (76-68) and SE Missouri (77-59) have the Panthers well off the pace in the OVC.
Iowa State Cyclones (20-2, 7-2 Big 12) – NET 4, KenPom 4 – Iowa State has now won four in a row after beating Colorado 97-67 and Kansas State 95-61 since the last update.
Marquette Golden Eagles (8-15, 3-9 Big East) – NET 127, KenPom 112 – Marquette has to be one of the more disappointing teams in America. Their 69-64 loss at Seton Hall on Saturday has them at just 3-9 and utterly lost in the Big East.
Auburn Tigers (14-8, 5-4 SEC) – NET 29, KenPom 26 – Auburn picked up an 88-82 win over Camden Heide and Texas last week, but lost at Tennessee 77-69. This weekend we get round one of the Iron Basketbowl.
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Kent State Golden Flashes (17-6, 8-3 MAC) – NET 139, KenPom 140 – The above mentioned loss to Akron has Kent State solidly in third place in the MAC, especially after a 75-72 win over Toledo. This is still a pretty good team that took Miami (OH) to overtime before losing a few weeks ago.
Likely NCAA Teams: Alabama, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Auburn
Possible NCAA teams (Could win Autobids): Akron, Kent State, Oakland
Could play to the Bubble: Akron
