Notre Dame’s chance of making the College Football Playoff doesn’t look great according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).
But there are a bunch of caveats here. For example, the Fighting Irish are currently listed at 32 percent, but the Miami (FL) team that beat them, which was a top-10 team before kickoff, is only at 46.7 percent.
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Only seven teams are above 50 percent, and one is Notre Dame rival USC — a team that isn’t even ranked in the USA Today Coaches Poll.
So, perhaps the small sample size of one game is playing some havoc here. After all, there were three Top 10 matchups in Week One, meaning three top 10 teams would have to lose.
Here’s how ESPN defines the FPI: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”
Ohio State and Georgia are the only two teams above 80 percent, with the Buckeyes at 81.6 and the Bulldogs at 80.6. Texas, which lost to Ohio State 14-7, is at 69.7 percent.
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It should be noted that Notre Dame is ranked 9th in the FPI index, which matches its spot in both major polls.
Fighting Irish fans shouldn’t sweat too much; other projections still have Notre Dame in the CFP field. And a loss on the road to a top-10 team isn’t nearly as bad as dropping a home tilt to an unranked Northern Illinois team, as the Irish did last year. The margin for error is slimmer, but the road to the playoff is still accessible.
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This article originally appeared on Fighting Irish Wire: Notre Dame’s playoff chances look low via ESPN FPI
