Most of the time, wins feel like wins. Sometimes a loss can feel like a win. No. 19 Ohio State women’s basketball lost to the No. 4 UCLA Bruins on Sunday, but the game went down to the wire. A seven-point defeat felt more like a sign of positive things to come than a rebuilding moment for a Buckeye squad with eight of 11 players either a sophomore or younger.
Now, Ohio State heads to West Lafayette, Indiana for an early New Year’s Eve matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers. Because of the strong play against UCLA, there is one lingering question within the Ohio State roster. Also, does Purdue have the veteran leadership to turn a high note for Ohio State into an upset for the Boilermakers?
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Who Starts for the Buckeyes?
Since the start of the 2021-22 season, head coach Kevin McGuff has not made any changes to the starting five, unless an injury or COVID was involved. Sometimes those lineup changes stick beyond the return to health for the injured player and maybe the injuries become an easy scapegoat to substitution, but Sunday McGuff made a matchup-based change.
Center Elsa Lemmilä started the first three games of the season but looked like a shell of the big who excelled in her freshman season for the Buckeyes. To the Finnish center’s credit, Lemmilä was also still recovering from two offseason surgeries that cut off the big’s preseason conditioning.
Instead of going with two bigs and three guards, McGuff slid forward Kylee Kitts into the No. 5 role and added senior transfer guard T’Yana Todd to the starting five. Todd stayed in the starting lineup for the next nine games, until McGuff put Lemmilä back in the lineup against 6’7” UCLA center Lauren Betts and a Bruins team that was taller than Ohio State at nearly every position.
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The problem now is that both Lemmilä and Todd had great performances against the Bruins.
Lemmilä had a career conference game with 13 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks. The sophomore played 32 minutes, the most in regulation in her young career and played composed basketball. Lemmilä went a perfect 5-of-5 from the floor and 1-of-2 from three-point range. That lone shot from deep was the one and only three-point shot that Ohio State made in the entire first half.
For Todd, she carried the three-point shooting in the second half. The former Boston College Eagle went 4-of-7 from beyond the arc in the second half and scored 14 of her 16 points in the third and fourth quarters. Each time Ohio State cut into the visiting Bruins’ lead with a multi-basket run, Todd was part of the action.
Where do the Buckeyes go on Wednesday is an interesting piece to watch.
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Matchup-wise, a four-guard system matches up well against the Boilermakers. Purdue normally starts a four-guard system, with only one of the four standing at least 6’ tall. At forward is 6’4’ sophomore Lana McCarthy who is a physical big who would give Ohio State’s Kitts trouble in the paint but the Buckeyes just came off the court against Betts, so any other paint presence player will be closer to a walk in the park in the process.
However, the starting lineup was the group that McGuff hoped to have at the start of the season. Does Todd slide back into a bench role and stay in games if she is a hot hand?
The Boilermakers
In the 22-23 season, Purdue went 19-11, the team’s best record since the 13-14 season when the Boilermakers went 22-9. That 19-11 record was in the second season of head coach Katie Gearlds run as head of the women’s basketball program, but since then Purdue is slipping.
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The Boilermakers had 15 wins the next season and 10 last year. Now, this year does not follow the same downward trend, so far. Purdue welcomes the Buckeyes with an 8-5 record, although two of those losses came against midmajor sides from the Horizon League and MAC.
Purdue has been an enigma of sorts over the last two years. Maybe it is lack of investment in the roster, NIL issues or a combination of countless things, but one sign of confidence in the Boilermakers are guards Tara Daye and Madison Layden-Zay.
Daye joined Purdue for her final season of eligibility after two seasons with St. John’s. Gearlds trusted Daye from the start of the season and started the 5’7” forward in all 13 games for the Boilermakers and Day’s rewarded that trust. Daye has a team-leading 12.2 points per game and four double-doubles. The guard is aggressive on offense and will make surprise plays on defense. While Daye only averages 1.4 attempts from deep per game, the senior will get to the basket or pull up for a midrange jumper, similar shooting to Ohio State point guard Jaloni Cambridge, without the speed.
Layden-Zay is an example of someone who wants to play for Gearlds, something that a coach who has lost the confidence of the locker room will have at their disposal. Layden-Zay stepped away from college basketball with one year remaining and got married. Eventually, Layden-Zay decided to use that final year of eligibility and put her name in the transfer portal but removed it to finish her time with the Boilermakers.
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The graduate senior brings needed leadership for Gearlds. Purdue’s starting lineup likely features only one returning Boilermaker from last season. Layden-Zay has the most experience on the team playing with Gearlds and is key for players like Daye and guard Kiki Smith who each joined from the transfer portal and freshman sharpshooting guard Hila Karsh.
Even so, that is a lot of new pieces put into the lineup and Ohio State is a team that makes it difficult to hold onto possession if a team is not on the same page. On Sunday, the Buckeyes forced 15 turnovers from a senior-heavy Bruins program while Purdue enters Wednesday with 15.4 turnovers per game.
Three-Point Shooting
There are a lot of “what if” moments in a basketball game and the big one for the Buckeyes to start conference play was shooting from deep. Ohio State shot 23.3 percent from beyond the arc against the Bruins on Sunday and this season the team shoots a conference low 27.7% per game.
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If Ohio State shot even the median three-point percentage in the Big Ten, or around 33%, the Buckeyes have two more three-point shots against UCLA and its a one-point game with McGuff’s side holding onto the final possession.
“I told them, just make sure we continue to take good shots and get some balance, get around the rim, get to the free throw line, and then take open threes,” McGuff told reporters on Sunday. “It’s frustrating because I’m not trying to get us to do anything that we’re not capable of doing, but just more shoot to our capabilities.”
In previous press availability, players talk about how the team hits them consistently in practice, then the game comes and they do not fall. They are not normally contested looks either. Is it a situation where the flood gates need opened or is there a bigger issue within the shot selection for the Buckeyes?
Purdue is 14th in the 18-team Big Ten conference at 30.7% shooting efficiency for opponents from deep, so there is a chance for Ohio State to get those opportunities. Getting opportunities is not the problem, it is making them.
