Wednesday’s Cure Bowl featuring Old Dominion (9-3) and South Florida (9-3) is set to be a grind-it-out game. Both schools are missing their starting quarterbacks (portal) and USF is without their Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator. Alex Golesh (HC) and Joel Gordon (OC) have departed for Auburn.
The biggest variables are under center. As noted, the regular season starting signal-callers have entered the portal for these schools leaving freshman Quinn Henicle under center for ODU and USF starting journeyman Gaston Moore.
Lets dive into each of these schools and see what we can apply to the betting markets.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Old Dominion vs. USF
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Date: Wednesday, December 17, 2025
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Site: Camping World Stadium
Game Odds: Old Dominion vs. USF
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
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Moneyline: Old Dominion Monarchs (+130), USF Bulls (-166)
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Lets dive into each team and take a look at both their offenses and defenses.
Old Dominion
Head Coach: Ricky Rahne
2025 Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Offense Ranking: 40
Defense Ranking: 53
Strength of Schedule: 96
Old Dominion delivered a rock-solid 9–3 season that matched its underlying metrics almost perfectly, finishing with 9.0 second-order wins and an SP+ ranking of 48, firmly placing the Monarchs in the upper tier of the Sun Belt. Ricky Rahne’s team paired an efficient, explosive offense (SP+ offense rank 40, 6.87 yards per play, Top 20 explosiveness rates) with a consistently sturdy defense that ranked Top 20 nationally in EPA/play allowed and yards per drive. The Monarchs’ résumé was built on dominant wins over Virginia Tech, Coastal Carolina, Troy, and Georgia Southern, regularly outperforming SP+ projections and finishing +5.4 points per game better than expected. Two of their losses came against Top 25-caliber opponents Indiana and James Madison, underscoring how competitive Old Dominion was even when stepping up in class. With a +13.4 actual scoring margin and a Top 10 adjusted scoring margin nationally, this season stands as the most analytically sound and dominant campaign of the Rahne era.
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The ODU Offense
Old Dominion’s offense finished as one of the more impressive units in the Sun Belt, ranking 40th in Offensive SP+ while averaging 6.87 yards per play and 36.9 yards per drive. The Monarchs were especially dangerous when plays stayed on schedule, posting a Top 20 rushing efficiency profile (6.1 yards per carry, Top 10 yards after contact) and a Top 15 success rate on passing downs. Explosiveness defined the passing attack, with a Top 5 national ranking in yards per successful dropback and a heavy emphasis on intermediate and vertical throws that consistently flipped the field. While red-zone and goal-to-go execution lagged behind the unit’s between-the-20s production, Old Dominion still produced 2.50 points per drive and routinely exceeded scoring projections against Sun Belt Conference competition.
The ODU Defense
Old Dominion’s defense was a vital part of its 9–3 season, finishing 53rd in Defensive SP+ while ranking Top 20 nationally in EPA per play allowed, yards per drive (25.1), and points per drive (1.38). The Monarchs consistently suffocated opponents with a disruptive front, posting a Top 20 Havoc rate and an 11th-ranked sack rate per dropback, while holding foes to just 4.79 yards per play. Opposing passing games struggled to generate explosive gains, as Old Dominion ranked Top 15 in passing success rate allowed and Top 10 in limiting completions of 20+ yards. Even with some situational leaks on early downs and third-and-short, the defense repeatedly flipped games with pressure, negative plays, and field-tilting efficiency.
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USF Bulls
Head Coach: Kevin Patrick (interim)
2025 Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Offense Ranking: 9
Defense Ranking: 60
Strength of Schedule: 66
USF put together one of the AAC’s most analytically sound campaigns, finishing 9–3 with 9.6 second-order wins and an SP+ ranking of 23, signaling that the Bulls’ record slightly undersold their true performance. Departed HC Alex Golesh’s offense was the clear driver, ranking ninth nationally in Offensive SP+ while averaging 7.19 yards per play and 3.16 points per drive, with elite explosiveness and a Top 10 EPA/play profile. It needs to be noted that Golesh and most of his offensive staff will not be coaching in the bowl game. The Bulls stacked dominant wins over Boise State, North Texas, UTSA, and Rice, routinely exceeding SP+ expectations and finishing a nation-best +13.0 points per game above projected scoring margin. Defensively, USF was more volatile but opportunistic, pairing a middling SP+ rank (60) with strong turnover margins and enough Havoc to complement the offense’s tempo and scoring pressure. With a +19.7 actual scoring margin, 66.7% ATS cover rate, this season marked a definitive statement that USF has re-emerged as a top-tier AAC contender.
The USF Offense
USF’s offense was the clear driver of its AAC resurgence, finishing ninth nationally in Offensive SP+ (9th) while averaging 7.19 yards per play (5th) and 3.16 points per drive (10th). The Bulls paired efficiency with explosiveness, ranking Top 10 in EPA per play (9th) and big-play rate (20+ yards on 9.1% of snaps, 9th) while ripping off 6.2 yards per rush (6th). Protection was elite, with the offensive line allowing pressure on just 1.8% of dropbacks (12th), enabling consistent downfield stress. Once inside the 20, USF routinely finished drives, posting a red-zone touchdown rate of 73.9% (9th) that kept scoreboards tilting rapidly.
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The USF Defense
USF’s defense played a complementary but effective role, finishing 60th in Defensive SP+ (60th) while allowing 5.16 yards per play (37th) and 1.83 points per drive (45th). The Bulls were strongest against the run, holding opponents to a 37.9% rushing success rate (24th) and limiting early-down efficiency on standard downs (43.4% allowed, 24th). Explosive plays cropped up at times (5.8% of plays allowed gaining 20+ yards, 47th), but their active pass rush helped offset the volatility with a 37.2% pressure rate (29th). That opportunistic approach showed up in the takeaway numbers, as USF finished with a +9 turnover margin (12th), consistently handing extra possessions to its fast-scoring offense.
USF and ODU: Team Stats and Betting Trends
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Old Dominion is 7-5 ATS this season
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USF is 8-3-1 ATS this season
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The OVER has cashed in just 4 of ODU’s 12 games this season (4-8)
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The OVER has cashed in 7 of USF’s 12 games this season (7-5)
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Old Dominion +3.5 ATS
The majority of USF’s offensive staff and both teams’ starting quarterbacks will not be participating, leaving much conjecture as to how effective each offense will be. The books are absolutely petrified of this game from a player props angle, as they had only listed ODU RB Devin Roche at 77.5 Rushing Yards on the parlay markets, which has been taken down at time of print. I think the motivation and talent factors favor ODU, as USF is missing a few key defensive players in addition to QB Byrum Brown and the majority of their offensive staff. I’ll be keeping an eye on QB Quinn Henicle’s rushing props as he’s a dynamic runner in space, but in the meantime I’m taking the +3.5 points and rolling with the Monarchs to win outright.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
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Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best Bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Old Dominion and USF
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Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Old Dominion on the Moneyline.
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Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on Old Dominion at +3
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Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 53.5
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