Luka Doncic went on NBC’s Today show Thursday and played dumb. Host Craig Melvin asked, “Big decision on Saturday… whether you sign that contract extension. Any message for fans?”
“I don’t know what you’re talking about,” Doncic responded with a smile. “I can’t discuss anything yet.”
Saturday, Aug. 2, six months from the day they traded for him in a deal that shook the league, the Lakers can offer a contract extension to Doncic. Los Angeles’ offer cannot come close to the five-year, $346 million supermax contract (35% of the salary cap) that Dallas could have offered, but Nico Harrison and Dallas ownership balked at paying that number (because of doubts about Doncic’s conditioning, which appear to have motivated Doncic). The max the Lakers can offer is 30% of the salary cap under the terms of the CBA.
Doncic is going to sign the contract. The Lakers have clearly started to build around him as the future (leaving LeBron James in a spot he has not been in before in his career). Doncic has seen what L.A. is doing, and not only has he spoken highly of the Lakers organization since the trade, but also this summer he helped recruit Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart to join him.
The only question is the form of the extension he signs. There are a few options.
Four-year max
The Lakers’ biggest offer is four years, $224.9 million and Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka will put that on the table Saturday. (Note: That number is lower than the $229 million often reported as the max because the NBA salary cap is projected to rise just 7% next season and not the previously projected 10%, lowering the total.)
This new deal includes the $49.9 million Doncic is guaranteed to make next season (that is locked in no matter what he chooses), then he would opt out of the final year of his current contract and sign a four-year extension, which likely would be structured as three guaranteed seasons plus a player option. There have been some reports out of Europe that Doncic has agreed to this four-year max contract. While it is possible, that seems unlikely, unless there are player options after two years.
Three-year max
This is more likely the deal Doncic signs: three years, $160.8 million (two years plus a player option in the final year, and this is lower than the previously reported $165 million because of the smaller expected rise in the salary cap).
The reason to sign for the three years is money — after playing three more seasons, Doncic will have reached 10 years of service in the league, at which point he is eligible for 35% of the salary cap (up from the 30% L.A. can offer now). With the three-year deal, when that ends he can sign a five-year max contract with the Lakers or a four-year one with another team, depending on how he feels about his situation at the time. This is the option that gets him the most money and flexibility.
There are other options. In theory, Doncic could sign a two-year deal (one guaranteed plus a player option) to keep some leverage over the Lakers, but the more likely option is to lock in max money until he gets to 10 years of service, then go from there.
One way or another, Doncic will sign with the Lakers. He is currently in the United States on a Jordan Brand shoe tour and is expected to sign the deal this weekend. By Aug. 4 he is expected to be in Slovenia, preparing for the EuroBasket with his national team. If he doesn’t sign the deal before heading back to Europe, it likely is into September before the deal is formally inked. But it will be.
