Highlights
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All four On3 recruiting experts predict that No. 1 overall 2026 prospect Tyran Stokes will commit to Kentucky.
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Stokes’ finalists are Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville, Oregon and USC, but analysts say the Wildcats and Jayhawks are the top two contenders.
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A recent Nike deal and strong NIL opportunities make Kentucky the heavy favorite to land its first No. 1 recruit since Anthony Davis in 2011.
The race for five-star small forward Tyran Stokes, the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2026 recruiting class, appears to be tightening. According to multiple recruiting analysts at On3, Kentucky has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to land the Louisville native.
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Stokes, who has narrowed his list of schools to Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Oregon and USC, has been relatively quiet publicly throughout his recruitment. But behind the scenes, most experts believe Mark Pope’s Wildcats are leading the chase.
Four On3 and Rivals recruiting insiders — Jamie Shaw, Joe Tipton, Jack Pilgrim and Shay Wildeboor — each predicted Friday that Stokes will ultimately choose Kentucky.
Shaw, a senior national basketball recruiting analyst, said he continues to hear the most buzz around Kentucky and Kansas, though the Wildcats hold a clear edge.
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“Most sources I’m talking with think it’s Kentucky,” Shaw wrote. “But they’re keeping eyes firmly planted on Kansas.”
Tipton echoed that sentiment, noting that Kentucky has held steady as the perceived frontrunner despite a recent push from Kansas.
“If I was forced to make a prediction, it would be Kentucky,” Tipton wrote, agreeing that Bill Self’s Jayhawks remain the Wildcats’ biggest competition.
Meanwhile, Kentucky Sports Radio’s Pilgrim pointed to the combination of role, brand and NIL opportunities as decisive factors.
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“Too much is pointing toward Kentucky getting this thing over the finish line,” Pilgrim wrote. “The combination of role, brand and money is too good for Stokes to turn down.”
Meanwhile, Wildeboor of Jayhawk Slant also acknowledged Kentucky’s dominant position, saying the Wildcats are “the team to beat” barring a last-minute shift.
Notre Dame High School (CA) forward Tyran Stokes (4).© Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Stokes has taken official visits to all five finalists, beginning with Louisville in 2024, followed by Kansas, Kentucky, USC and Oregon this year. His recent Nike endorsement has also fueled speculation that he will commit to another Nike-affiliated program, further strengthening Kentucky’s position.
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If the Wildcats do secure his commitment, Stokes would become Kentucky’s first No. 1 overall recruit since Anthony Davis in 2011, marking a potential milestone as Pope looks to restore the program’s recruiting dominance in his second season.
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Oct 17, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
