The Orioles have been among the biggest disappointments in the Majors this season. With their nightmarish 2025 season nearing its completion, where do they go from here?
After winning the American League East in 2023 and earning a Wild Card berth in 2024, Baltimore came into 2025 with high expectations, looking to become the first Orioles club since 1969-71 to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons. Instead, the O’s are headed for a last-place finish, sending general manager Mike Elias into a crucial offseason as they try to get back on the winning track.
“The Orioles are still in great shape organizationally,” a National League executive said. “They have talent at the Major League level and a deep farm system. They do need to improve their defense and continue to stockpile pitching depth; if they can do that, they should be right back in postseason contention next year.”
Elias traded nine players from the big league roster before the Trade Deadline — the majority of whom were on expiring contracts — in exchange for 15 prospects, though the bulk of them are still at least two or three years away from the Majors.
COMPLETE ORIOLES PROSPECT COVERAGE
But with a young core that remains largely under control through at least 2027, Baltimore should be able to address some holes this winter to continue building around that foundation.
“They have too much talent to punt on this group,” said another NL executive. “I would be shocked if they don’t look to make some changes, but ultimately to continue doing everything they can to win a championship while this group is still young and affordable. They had a tough year, but I think we’ve seen over the last few weeks that they can still play.”
Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano are the club’s two most prominent free agents (Gary Sánchez is the other), creating holes in an already-thin rotation.
Trevor Rogers, who was acquired from the Marlins for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby at the 2024 Deadline, has been outstanding since joining the Orioles rotation in mid-June, going 8-2 with a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts this season. He’s entering his final year of arbitration and should be a key piece for Baltimore in 2026, while Kyle Bradish (who recently returned from Tommy John surgery) should also have a spot in the rotation.
Ideally, Grayson Rodriguez (elbow debridement surgery in August) would also be part of that group, though his injury history could make it difficult to rely on him. Dean Kremer is under control for two more seasons, but his track record suggests he should fill a spot in the back end of the rotation. Tyler Wells could also be a rotation option.
“They need some pitching,” an AL executive said. “Although if they get 200-300 innings from Bradish and Grayson, that’s a good start.”
Will the Orioles acquire a frontline starter this winter to lead the group? Elias did that in 2024 with a trade for Corbin Burnes, only to watch the ace depart as a free agent last winter. Framber Valdez, Michael King, Dylan Cease and Ranger Suárez are among the top starters on the free-agent market this offseason, but the Orioles haven’t been aggressive in free agency under Elias – or during the past two decades, for that matter — so it remains to be seen whether the new ownership group will green-light such a signing or if Elias will have to use some of his prospect capital to land an arm.
“They have to spend on pitching,” an AL executive said. “No other alternative.”
“I think they have to contemplate how good those young players are and determine who is going to be with them for the long haul,” an AL executive said. “Utilizing some of that capital to prioritize pitching that they have struggled to develop would be my focus, or leveraging free-agent dollars to fortify the pitching.”
One AL executive theorized that Basallo’s arrival could make Adley Rutschman a potential chip if they choose to look to the trade market to add an arm.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see them move Adley to add some pitching,” mused an NL executive.
In addition to a top starter, the Orioles must rebuild their bullpen this winter after losing Félix Bautista to shoulder surgery and trading Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez, Andrew Kittredge and Bryan Baker this summer. The only returning relievers that figure to have prominent spots in the bullpen are Yennier Cano, Keegan Akin and Albert Suárez, though Wells could fit into that equation if he’s not in the starting rotation.
Contractually, the Orioles are in a good place entering the winter. Eflin, Sugano and Sanchez are the team’s only free agents, while the O’s have a $5.5 million club option on Jorge Mateo. Every other player is either arbitration-eligible or still in their pre-arb years.
Rutschman, Kremer, Bautista and Emmanuel Rivera each have two years of arbitration remaining, though Bautista — who will miss most or all of 2026 following shoulder surgery — could be a non-tender candidate.
Gunnar Henderson, Bradish, Rodriguez, Suárez and Alex Jackson are all arbitration-eligible for three more years, while Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Cade Povich and Heston Kjerstad haven’t even reached arbitration yet.
“They’re still talented, but getting more expensive as guys work through arbitration,” an AL executive said. “That division remains a monster, maybe better than ever. It feels like the window closed quickly for Baltimore, but it could reopen for a bit more. I think they can be good next year.”
While the Orioles will have some heavy lifting to do in the pitching department this offseason, their everyday lineup is mostly set. Mountcastle is arbitration-eligible for the final time, though it’s possible that the Orioles look to trade him or even non-tender him, opening first base for Basallo and/or Coby Mayo. Rutschman, Holliday, Henderson and Westburg round out the infield, while Cowser, Dylan Beavers and Tyler O’Neill should constitute the outfield unless Baltimore prefers to play Cowser in a corner spot and brings in a new center fielder.
Getting more production from youngsters such as Holliday, Mayo and Cowser — all of whom carry an OPS+ below 100 this season — will be important for the 2026 Orioles, because those players make up a large part of the current core.
“Henderson, Westburg and Rutschman still appear to be core pieces, but the rest of the young offense still hasn’t come together yet,” an NL executive said. “If Holliday, Beavers, Basallo, etc., develop, they will still be in a good spot. But time is starting to run out on some of the younger ones [regarding cost control].”
With the rotation, bullpen and potentially center field making up Elias’ to-do list this winter, it will be interesting to see if he goes outside of his comfort zone to attack the free-agent market or continues to operate the way he has in recent years. Having turned a 110-loss team into a 101-win contender in only two years, Elias could stay the course and continue building the club the way he has since taking the job prior to the 2019 season.
“I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they didn’t overreact to a Murphy’s Law year, stuck true to their past ideals and took a similar approach as they have in previous offseasons,” an AL executive said. “Staying with a good process in the face of poor outcomes is hard to do, but that’s a group that has the fortitude to separate the baby from the bathwater. They still have tons of talent on the roster, so they’re starting from a high floor and I still think they’ll be very competitive next year.”
