They say you can’t predict baseball — and it’s true. Unless you have a crystal ball, no one knows exactly how each season will unfold. Still, it’s always interesting to see how the various projection systems view things before the start of each year.
While the two sources largely agree on many teams, they don’t see eye to eye on everything. After reviewing PECOTA’s projections and comparing them with FanGraphs’, here are five key questions we have for the upcoming season.
1. Are the Dodgers just a very good team or a juggernaut?
Winning back-to-back titles clearly hasn’t slowed the Dodgers’ ambition. Instead of resting on its laurels, Los Angeles remained aggressive during the offseason, signing both Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz — widely considered to be the top overall player and best closer, respectively, available in free agency.
With all the talent at their disposal, it’s no surprise that both PECOTA and FanGraphs project them to be baseball’s best team. What remains to be seen is just how dominant they’ll be.
While FanGraphs projects the Dodgers for around 99 wins — certainly excellent, but not otherworldly — PECOTA’s projection of 105 wins suggests something more historic may be attainable for this roster.
Though 105 wins isn’t unprecedented, it’s rarer than you might think. Only 15 teams have won at least 105 games since both leagues adopted a 162-game schedule in 1962, and no defending champion in that timeframe had more wins than the 2021 Dodgers with 106.
The fact that 105 wins is the median outcome for the Dodgers across thousands of simulated seasons — not to mention 12 wins better than the next closest team — underscores just how formidable PECOTA expects them to be as they chase a third straight ring.
2. Who has the upper hand in the AL Central?
Both FanGraphs and PECOTA project the Guardians to tumble down the standings following last year’s historic comeback to win the AL Central, though they disagree on whether it’s going to be the Royals or the Tigers taking Cleveland’s place atop the division.
PECOTA gives a slight edge to the Royals, who missed the playoffs with an 82-80 record in 2025. While Kansas City supplemented its roster around the edges during the offseason, the biggest gains could come from within. Improved health across the rotation will be key after Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Kris Bubic combined for just 59 starts in 2025. The club also will be looking for young hitters Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen to deliver on their promise.
FanGraphs sees things quite differently, tabbing Detroit as the clear AL Central favorite after the team added Framber Valdez to a roster that won 87 games last season.
3. Are the Red Sox lagging behind the pack in the AL East?
What’s unclear, though, is whether Boston has done enough to become a true contender in the AL East. The projections are split on the club’s chances.
PECOTA puts the Yankees and Blue Jays on a pedestal above the other teams in the division, followed by the Orioles. Boston is projected to finish fourth, closer to the fifth-place Rays than the third-place O’s. FanGraphs, on the other hand, has the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Orioles in a tight cluster. The playoff odds for all four range from 53.6% to 68.5%, with Boston in third at 58.5%.
4. Just how large is the Cubs’ edge in the NL Central?
Milwaukee has ruled over the NL Central in recent years, winning three of the past four division crowns and consistently outperforming preseason expectations. Even after shipping out ace Freddy Peralta, the Brewers should remain a threat — they did, after all, post baseball’s best record in 2025. Still, the division crown looks to be there for the taking, and the Cubs could be poised to capitalize.
Fresh off a 92-win season, Chicago has added Bregman and Edward Cabrera to the mix, easing the sting of Tucker’s exit and giving the team what appears to be the most well-rounded roster in the NL Central.
Both PECOTA and FanGraphs have the Cubs winning the division, though they differ on a couple of notable points. PECOTA is more bullish on their chances, projecting them to be 10 wins better than the next closest NL Central team, the Brewers. FanGraphs not only sees it as a much tighter race but also points to another team as Chicago’s biggest challenger — the Pirates, who spent the offseason bringing in veteran bats to complement a young rotation led by reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes.
5. Are the Astros a real threat in the AL?
The Astros find themselves at a crossroads after missing the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016. The foundation of the team that made eight straight playoff appearances from 2017-24 and won two championships has steadily eroded, and while the Astros have proven adept at retooling, ’25 may have been a warning sign.
Or maybe it was just a one-year blip. After all, they managed to win 87 games despite Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes all missing considerable time. If the club’s lineup experiences better health and its rotation additions — Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss — help make up for the loss of Valdez, Houston could find itself right back in the postseason mix.
PECOTA considers the latter scenario to be a distinct possibility, projecting the Astros for the fourth-best winning percentage (.528) in the AL behind the Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners. FanGraphs is more pessimistic, tabbing Houston as the AL’s seventh-best team with a projected win percentage of .500.
