This was supposed to be the year that Penn State finally overachieved. They brought back nearly all their elite personnel from last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal appearance and looked to be a serious contender for not just their first Big Ten title in almost a decade, but their first national title since the middle stages of the Joe Paterno era. Those dreams were quickly washed away after their cross-country journey to visit a seemingly lifeless UCLA Bruins squad ended with a stunning loss. While it is not entirely implausible for Penn State to run the table and put itself in the CFP conversation, the road ahead now looks much tougher. And the stats are certainly not in their favor anymore.
According to SP+ projections, the Nittany Lions are more likely projected to end up going 7-5 than going 10-2, with SP+ giving them a minuscule 1.6% chance of achieving that now lofty goal. With having to travel to Columbus to face the top team in the nation and then welcoming No. 7 Indiana to Beaver Stadium over the next week, Penn State fans should be glad that SP+ does not project a worse outcome to their season.
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That’s not all. Not only are SP+ projections giving up hope on them in the CFP race, but they have dropped in the Big Ten title odds projections. After starting the season with the third-best odds, Penn State now has the 11th-best, behind both Iowa and Maryland. To put that in perspective, the Nittany Lions had +230 odds coming into the season, while Iowa was +3400 and Maryland was a whopping +30000 to win the Big Ten. Ouch.
The most damning aspect of this whole charade was that Penn State’s offense didn’t even play poorly against the Bruins. Allar had perhaps his best game this season. They were successful in sustaining drives and moving the football. UCLA just dictated the tempo of the game better. By the time the Nittany Lions got the ball, they were down 10-0 and had to play catch-up. And when they found themselves down 27-7 at the half, the uphill battle only grew. It is crazy to think that only five teams have put up 430 yards on James Franklin’s teams in his tenure. UCLA is the most puzzling one now on the list. This was a team that had put up a measly 220 yards the previous week and had fired their coach. The Nittany Lions made them look like world beaters this week.
To top it all off, this drops Franklin’s record as a favorite of 14 or more points to a still impressive 56-3. But when you lose a game that is entirely unacceptable to lose, how good does that record really make you feel?
This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: What Penn State’s latest loss means on larger scale
