Everything is stacking up for the Texas Longhorns to have a great year. UT coach Steve Sarkisian has been building his program to peak in 2025. But, while Texas doesn’t have the hardest schedule in college football, there are still some huge landmines on the Longhorns slate.
The Longhorns open at Ohio State. In fact, Texas has three road games against ranked opponents. That doesn’t count the Red River Shootout against what should be a much better Sooners team in Dallas.
Advertisement
Texas’ biggest weakness could be its offensive line. The offense has been getting pushed around in fall camp, and while Texas starting quarterback Arch Manning is more mobile that his predecessor Quinn Ewers, you still want him to have time to make plays.
A bad offensive line can completely sink a season. Remember how Georgia pushed around the O-line last year? That could be nothing compared to this season.
To win the national title, a lot of things must bounce the right way. Just look at UT’s last national title in 2005. What if Limas Sweed’s catch from Vince Young against Ohio State in 2005 was ruled “no catch?” (as it would be now) We might never have had that magic moment vs. USC. Only one team can win it all, even in an expanded playoff. If your typical expectations are national title or bust, more often than not, things will go wrong.
AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 19: Head coach Steve Sarkisian of the Texas Longhorns reacts during the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on October 19, 2024 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
Several wins in the 2024 season could have gone the other way. Vanderbilt could have easily won the game in Nashville against Texas. UT had a hard time shaking Kentucky and Arkansas and Texas A&M. Suddenly, an SEC Championship Game berth is a trip to the Las Vegas bowl.
Advertisement
There are a lot of games, and not just against ranked opponents, where the margins for victory are small. Sometimes too small to get the win at all.
This is not a prediction. This is a look at the worst-case scenario for the upcoming Longhorns season.
Aug. 31: Texas Longhorns at Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeye head coach Ryan Day.
Debbie Downer: Remember what happened the last time these teams played? Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
For all the excitement Texas fans about this game, we all know it could go south. The Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio is one of the toughest places to play in America. Manning will be totally thrown to the fire in his first game. Not even Colt McCoy could beat the Buckeyes in his second start.
Advertisement
Pessimistic Prediction: 28-24 Loss
Pessimistic Record: 0-1
Sept. 6: San Jose State Spartans at Texas Longhorns
Nov 29, 2024; San Jose, California, USA; San Jose State Spartans head coach Ken Niumatalolo looks on against the Stanford Cardinal in the second quarter at CEFCU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images
Debbie Downer: Remember the 300? The Spartans didn’t make it. Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
Not even a pessimist can project a loss by Texas to San Jose State in Austin.
Pessimistic Prediction: 38-7 Win
Pessimistic Record: 1-1
Sept. 13: UTEP Miners at Texas Longhorns
Scotty Walden, UTEP head coach, celebrates the first win of the season with his team against FIU at the Sun Bowl on Oct. 16, 2024, in El Paso, Texas.
Debbie Downer: Miners should always send a canary in first to see if it’s safe. Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
UTEP will probably be one of the worst teams in college football this year. Texas will look like the best team in the world against the Miners.
Advertisement
Pessimistic Prediction: 55-0 Win
Pessimistic Record: 2-1
Sept. 20: Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Longhorns
Wisconsin Badgers offensive Coordinator Phil Longo answers questions during Wisconsin Badgers football media day at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison on Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023.
Debbie Downer: Sam Houston won’t win this Texas Revolution! Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
Texas beat the final cupcake on the schedule with ease. Longhorn fans are feeling sky high heading into the SEC schedule.
Pessimistic Prediction: 48-10 Win
Pessimistic Record: 3-1
Florida coach Billy Napier talks with quarterback DJ Lagway (2) during the first half of the team’s game against Central Florida at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla., on Saturday, October 5, 2024.
Debbie Downer: You know what drowns in a swamp? Everything but alligators! Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
As we’ve discussed, Texas doesn’t have a single road game in October. The start of that stretch is at Florida. The Gators should be resurgent this year behind potential Heisman Trophy candidate DJ Lagway, whose running and throwing ability make him dangerous against even the best defenses.
Advertisement
Pessimistic Prediction: 24-20 Loss
Pessimistic Record: 3-2
Oct. 11: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (in Dallas)
Oklahoma’s John Mateer throws a pass during football practice for the University of Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, Okla., Wednesday, Aug., 6, 2025.
Debbie Downer: What if the Sooners actually had a good offenses? Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
Indeed, the OU offense should be much better with the transfer portal addition of former Washington State QB John Mateer. There’s a chance Mateer is very good. Very good.
Pessimistic Prediction: 31-28 Loss
Pessimistic Record: 3-3
Sep 28, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops reacts after defeating the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Debbie Downer: Mark Stoops always gets one big upset every year. Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
What will the Longhorns mental state be after two straight losses? Kentucky fans will smell blood in the water, especially if this turns out being a night game. The Wildcats played Texas tough last year in Austin. This could be a lot like last year’s Vanderbilt game that followed a loss to Georgia.
Advertisement
Pessimistic Prediction: 27-24 Win
Pessimistic Record: 4-3
Nov 23, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby reacts to a play during the second quarter of the game against the Missouri Tigers at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-Imagn Images
Debbie Downer: I had to take my bulldogs to the Vet. Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
Hail State is the worst team in the conference. Texas gets back to blowing teams out again.
Pessimistic Prediction: 34-14 Win
Pessimistic Record: 5-3
Nov. 1: Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns
Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea talks with his players during practice at FirstBank Stadium Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn.
Debbie Downer: Can a Commodore sink a steer’s season? Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
Vandy came close to pulling off the upset of Texas last year. What if Texas had lost that game right after losing to Georgia? The season would have been different. Returning QB Diego Pavia gets his revenge in a game that dumps the UT season chaos.
Advertisement
Pessimistic Prediction: 28-27 Loss
Pessimistic Record: 5-4
Sep 7, 2024; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart shown on the field during pregame warmup prior to the game against the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Debbie Downer: Only Tom Herman can beat Georgia! Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
Georgia beat Texas twice last season and the Bulldogs didn’t even get UT in Athens.
Pessimistic Prediction: 34-17 Loss
Pessimistic Record: 5-5
Dec 27, 2024; Memphis, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) passes the ball during warm ups prior to the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Debbie Downer: Liz Honey is going to be singing about this game for years! Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
Hungover from a season defining loss to Georgia, Texas throws out its flattest performance of the year against a fired up rival. Even worse, a rival that hates you way more than you hate them.
Advertisement
Pessimistic Prediction: 28-10 Loss
Pessimistic Record: 5-6
Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko during warm ups before Auburn Tigers take on Texas A&M Aggies at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024.
Debbie Downer: I was born with my horns down. Wahhhh, Waaaahhhhh!
After waiting for over a decade, Texas’ biggest rival finally gets some semblance of revenge. The Aggies knock Texas out of a bowl game and a very tough offseason starts for Steve Sarkisian.
Pessimistic Prediction: 20-17 Loss
Pessimistic Record: 5-7
Final Debbie Downer Pessimistic Record: 5-7
Nov 25, 2022; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns matching band during the Bevo Parade before the game against the Baylor Bears at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
The sad trombone’s season ends 5-7. Everything that could have gone wrong did. In this exercise at least.
Again, this isn’t a prediction. This is a VERY pessimistic view. This is a look at how hard it is to win all of these games. If certain moments go against you, things can go downhill and snowball. Even the bottom of the SEC can be dangerous.
Advertisement
Let’s hope in five months this is just a humorous alternate history.
Follow us on X/Twitter at @LonghornsWire.
This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Pessimistic look at worst-case scenario for Texas Longhorns schedule
