Alonso said he will opt out of the final year and $24 million of the two-year, $54 million contract he signed in February.
Given the numbers Alonso posted in 2025 – 38 home runs, 126 RBIs (second in the National League to Kyle Schwarber), 41 doubles (tied for the NL lead with Matt Olson), an .871 OPS and a career-high .272 average in 162 games – it’s hardly a surprise that he will give free agency another try.
“Alonso has put himself in a superior position relative to last offseason, that much is clear,” said an NL executive. “To what extent is the more intriguing question.”
There are two key factors to consider when assessing Alonso’s value compared to a year ago. First, his performance this season was superior to 2024, when he hit 34 home runs with 88 RBIs, 31 doubles and a .788 OPS over 162 games.
His power numbers on Statcast this season were dominant, as he ranked in the top five percent of the league in average exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage, taking big leaps in all three categories from the prior year.
Perhaps more important than his on-field performance, Alonso is not eligible to receive a qualifying offer this offseason, so he won’t have any draft-pick compensation attached to him as he seeks the long-term contract that evaded him last winter.
“Not having the qualifying offer will be huge for him,” an American League executive said. “Teams that might not have considered him last year may think differently now.”
While Alonso’s offense rebounded this season, his defense remains an issue, as he posted -9 outs above average for the second straight season. Alonso will also turn 31 in December, an age at which long-term deals can be tough to find.
“I think he’ll beat the one-year, $24 million [that he’s opting out of], but I don’t know if it’s a slam dunk,” an NL executive said. “Probably similar medium money on short-term offers and he’ll keep getting himself opt-outs. He obviously still brings the premium power, but I don’t know if you can count on that average again and it seems like his defense is going in the wrong direction.”
Unlike last year, when the free-agent market included star hitters including Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander and Willy Adames, this year’s class is led by Kyle Tucker, Schwarber and Bo Bichette (and potentially Bregman again if he chooses to opt out of his deal with the Red Sox), leaving fewer pure power threats to compete with.
“I think it’ll be similar to last year, but there are also fewer big-bat options available this winter than there were last winter, so there may be more teams willing and able to give him what he wants,” an NL executive said. “It’s interesting because he is a year older, but also a year deeper in his career and he has continued to produce – so that could cut either way. I think he ends up doing better than last winter, at the end of the day. But it’s hard to say how much better.”
