PHILADELPHIA — For their past few postseason runs, the Phillies’ starting rotation has been anchored by veteran right-handers Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
By itself, that is by no means unusual. But the Phillies may also then roll out a left-handed starter in Game 2 — and potentially another one in Game 3.
That’s where it goes from unusual to almost unprecedented.
Though Phillies manager Rob Thomson wouldn’t reveal his rotation beyond starting Sánchez for Game 1, it’s very likely that fellow left-handers Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo — in some order — will start Games 2 and 3.
While that may not seem like a big deal, consider this: No team has used a left-handed starter (excluding openers) in each of its first three games to begin a postseason run since … the 2009 Phillies. That ’09 club — which started Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ in the first three games of the NLDS — is the only team since 2000 to open a postseason with three straight lefty starters.
While part of that is obviously there are far more righties than lefties, the general idea is that teams don’t like to give opponents the same look three games in a row — regardless of whether it’s a right-hander or left-hander.
“Luzardo is more of a power guy and Ranger is more of the finesse guy,” Thomson said. “I think it’s kind of two different guys, so it’s not like we’re pitching the same guy back to back. I’m comfortable with that.”
Thomson quickly added: “If that’s what we do.”
Assuming that is, indeed, what the Phillies will do, let’s take a closer look at how exactly that would look from each side.
Why it could work for the Phillies
As Thomson alluded to, the similarities between Sánchez, Suárez and Luzardo pretty much begin and end with being left-handed.
Sánchez has a power sinker that averages 95.4 mph and touches 98 mph — and he plays off it by throwing arguably the best changeup in the game. Per Statcast’s run value metric, Sánchez’s changeup has accounted for an MLB-best run value of 35 since the start of last season.
While Luzardo is another hard thrower — his four-seamer averages 96.5 mph and maxed out at 99.6 this season — his best pitch this year was his sweeper. Opponents hit just .178 with a .264 slugging percentage and a 43.7% whiff rate against it. Going back to that run value metric, Luzardo’s sweeper grades out at 15, tied with Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet for the best sweeper in the Majors.
And then there’s Suárez, a soft-tossing throwback to a different era. With a sinker that averages just 90.1 mph, Suárez instead relies on pinpoint location, minimizing hard contact and keeping hitters off balance with a diverse pitch mix that features a sinker, changeup, curveball, cutter and four-seamer.
“I think our lefties are pretty drastically different in the way they pitch and the stuff [they have],” said Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto. “They all use different pitches. They all throw different velos. I know they’re three lefties, but we’ll be attacking their hitters all differently with all three of them. I don’t think that’s a challenge.”
Why it could work for the Dodgers
On the surface, it may appear that going lefty-heavy could be a way to neutralize a Dodgers team whose two best hitters — Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman — both hit from the left side.
But it’s not that simple.
After all, Ohtani and Freeman rank third and fourth, respectively, in OPS by left-handed hitters against left-handed pitchers. They trail only Cody Bellinger and Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, who set the MLB single-season record for most home runs by a left-handed hitter against a left-handed pitcher.
Ohtani slashed .279/.344/.554 (.898 OPS) against lefties, while Freeman slashed .285/.349/.506 (.855 OPS). That said, Ohtani had a 1.076 OPS against righties this season, second-best in MLB behind only Aaron Judge. Meanwhile, Freeman’s career OPS is 130 points higher vs. righties (.937) than it is against lefties (.807).
“Obviously, two of their best hitters are left-handed,” Realmuto said. “And they’re very good against lefties, but they’re elite — elite — against right-handed pitching.”
With Ohtani and Freeman both more than holding their own against lefties, that helped make the Dodgers one of the most productive teams against left-handed pitching this season.
As a team, the Dodgers hit 70 home runs off southpaws this season, tied with the Yankees for the most in the Majors. Los Angeles’ .446 slugging percentage vs. lefties ranked second in MLB and its .764 OPS ranked third (both were best in the NL).
“Our lefties do a good job of being able to use the whole field, to be able to handle the spin, fight off the velocity,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “So yeah, I think that we’re really equipped to handle left-handed pitching or right-handed pitching. We’ve got a really talented lineup, too.”
