The Phoenix Mercury locked up a playoff spot, but their seeding remains uncertain with two games left in the season.
The Mercury are 27-15 on the season and are fourth in the WNBA. They sit one game behind the Atlanta Dream (28-14), but the Dream hold the tiebreaker if the two teams finish with the same record.
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With how high the stakes are for the Los Angeles Sparks (20-22), the Mercury won’t catch any breaks in their final regular-season game at PHX Arena on Sept. 9 at 7 p.m.
The Sparks are one-and-a-half games behind the Seattle Storm for the final remaining playoff spot. The Sparks nearly saw their season end on Sept. 7 against the Dallas Wings, but turned the game around to stay alive. Los Angeles holds the tiebreaker over the Storm, which makes the race even tighter.
The Storm will play the playoff-bound Golden State Valkyries at the same time as the Mercury’s contest. The Storm need the Sparks to lose, while the Sparks need to win to continue.
The Mercury have a 3-0 edge over the Sparks and are 8-0 in the last eight meetings. In the previous matchup on Aug. 26, in Los Angeles, Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas broke her own WNBA record with her seventh triple-double of 12 points, 16 rebounds and 15 assists.
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With post players Dearica Hamby and Azura Stevens crowding the paint, the Sparks have given the Mercury a lot of trouble inside. Across the three meetings, the Sparks have posted 37.3 paint points. With Cameron Brink back from her ACL injury, the Sparks hit their highest total with 46 paint points in the last meeting.
Hamby has been leading the Sparks’ fight for the playoffs, averaging a double-double of 21.8 points and 9.4 rebounds in the last five games. Stevens has done a great job on the boards with 9.0 rebounds in that span.
In the backcourt, the Mercury also need to guard Kelsey Plum, who is prone to providing late 3-pointers. Across the last five games, Plum has averaged 16.4 points and 5.2 assists in her last five games. Julie Allemand has also done a great job of distributing the ball, averaging 4.6 assists.
Who can the Mercury play in the playoffs?
The Mercury have secured home court advantage for the first round, but they don’t know their seeding or opponent just yet.
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However, the loss against the Connecticut Sun on Sept. 6 might make it harder for the Mercury to advance higher than the fourth seed. But it’s not set in stone yet.
The Mercury could potentially move up as high as the second seed, but the Dream and Las Vegas Aces need to lose their final two games, and the Mercury need to win their final two games against the Sparks and the Dallas Wings.
If the Dream lose both games to the Sun, then the Mercury will take the third seed.
The third seed is currently matched up against the Golden State Valkyries for the first round.
The Aces hold the tiebreaker over both the Mercury and the Dream, but if Las Vegas falls to the Chicago Sky and the Sparks, along with the Dream losing out, then the Mercury could take the second seed.
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The second seed is currently matched up against the Indiana Fever, who have several notable injuries, including Caitlin Clark.
A loss by the Mercury against the Sparks would more than likely secure the Mercury at the fourth seed and would have them face the defending WNBA champion New York Liberty in the first round.
The Sept. 9 game against the Sparks will be shown locally on Arizona’s Family Sports.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Phoenix Mercury can impact WNBA playoff seeding vs Los Angeles Sparks
