The calendar is just days away from reading ‘August,’ which means it’s time for final preparation before the 2025 college football season.
One notable milestone in that preparation is Big Ten media days, which are currently taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada. Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell and player representatives quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., cornerback Ricardo Hallman and center Jake Renfro all spoke on Wednesday. Here is further coverage of their comments.
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Another important stage of the season countdown is updates to various power ratings and projection models. One leader in that regard is Parker Fleming (@statsowar on X), who released his model’s projected win totals for every Football Bowl Subdivision team on Monday.
Wisconsin’s projected win total: 5.2.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s Big Ten schedule includes games against Ohio State (10.1 projected wins), Oregon (10), Indiana (8.6), Michigan (8.4), Illinois (7.6), Washington (7.3), Iowa (7.2) and Minnesota (6.2). Of course, each team’s schedule heavily weighs into their projected final record. But in Fleming’s model, eight of Wisconsin’s nine Big Ten opponents are projected bowl teams, with three potentially representing the conference in the College Football Playoff.
Wisconsin’s projection of 5.2 wins falls in line with the consensus. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects 5.6 wins for the Badgers, while most sportsbooks hold their line at 5 1/2. We at Badgers Wire are a bit more optimistic — we picked a 6-6 record for Luke Fickell’s team with wins over Miami (Ohio), Middle Tennessee, Maryland, Iowa, Washington and Indiana, and losses to Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois and Minnesota.
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College football’s current structure creates a significant discrepancy between five and six wins. If Fleming’s projection comes true, Wisconsin would miss a bowl game for the second straight season and risk falling even further in the Big Ten pecking order. 6-6 finish to the regular season, meanwhile, would represent a step in the right direction and build tangible momentum entering 2026.
The Badgers begin their quest for a return trip to the postseason with a Week 1 matchup against Miami (OH).
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This article originally appeared on Badgers Wire: Wisconsin football win total projection from notable analytics leader
