The NHL paused its season on Feb. 6 to allow its players to compete in the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. Some of them return as newly minted gold medalists. Some return as bitter runners-up. Many will return worn down from an epic best-on-best tournament — a few return having been injured during those intense games.
Around 143 players saw action in the Olympic men’s hockey tournament. Of course, that means most NHL players didn’t participate, getting a multiweek break from the action before the games resume on Wednesday.
That includes all the Russian-born stars who would have played in the Olympics were it not for their country being banned from competing by the IOC and IIHF. Players such as Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning (third in scoring), Kirill Kaprizov of the Minnesota Wild (seventh) and Artemi Panarin, who was traded to the Los Angeles Kings before the break, all had a chance to rest up while their peers battled for gold.
What’s the state of the NHL playoff races as the season restarts? What kind of impact will the Olympics have on teams and players?
The NHL Bubble Watch is our monthly check-in on the Stanley Cup playoff races using playoff probabilities from The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, Stathletes and Money Puck for all 32 teams. We utilize stats from the NHL, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
But first, a look at the playoff bracket as the NHL regular season resumes:
Current playoff bracket
A1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. WC2 Boston Bruins
A2 Montreal Canadiens vs. A3 Detroit Red Wings
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Buffalo Sabres
M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 New York Islanders
C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Anaheim Ducks
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Dallas Stars
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Seattle Kraken
ATLANTIC DIVISION
The lock
Record: 37-14-4, 78 points
Playoff chances: 99%
The Lightning hit the Olympic break on a five-game winning streak and some decent separation in the division. Overall, they’re 14-1-1 in their past 16 games. The Russians couldn’t take part in the Olympic tournament, which means the two primary reasons for the Lightning’s surge to the top of the standings got a breather: Nikita Kucherov, whose 91 points in 51 games are 31 points better than second-leading scorer Jake Guentzel; and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has 27 wins in 37 games with a .920 save percentage.
Olympic aftermath: Health is the primary concern. Forwards Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli were both too injured to compete in Italy after having been named to Team Canada. Defenseman Victor Hedman dressed for Sweden’s quarterfinal loss against Team USA but didn’t play after suffering an injury in warmups. Meanwhile, coach Jon Cooper and winger Brandon Hagel have to handle the emotional toll of an Olympic final loss. Note to Jake Guentzel: Maybe leave the gold medal at home.
PICK YOUR SPOT JAKE GUENTZEL. 😤 #WinterOlympics pic.twitter.com/bQvPjsa5kq
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 14, 2026
Work to do
Record: 32-17-8, 72 points
Playoff chances: 86.5%
The Habs have had the eighth-best points percentage in the NHL since the start of 2026 (.667), fueled by the sixth-best offense in that span (3.83 goals per game). If they keep getting goaltending, Montreal is poised to make the postseason cut. Since Jan. 1, they’re eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage. Jakub Dobes has won six of his past seven starts, but with a .886 save percentage.
Olympic aftermath: Juraj Slafkovsky was once again an absolute star for Slovakia and has scored 11 goals in 13 career Olympic games. But here’s the thing: He has been playing on an Olympic level for the past 33 games for the Canadiens, scoring 14 goals and tallying 32 points. If they’re going to make the cut, they need that level of dominance from the burgeoning star.
Record: 33-19-6, 72 points
Playoff chances: 72.7%
The Red Wings have started overcoming some of the secondary scoring challenges that plagued them earlier this season. Since Jan. 1, there have been 13 players to record at least a goal for Detroit, including 14 points in 17 games from veteran James van Riemsdyk. Detroit has a .618 points percentage in that span, just outside of the top 10 in the NHL.
Olympic aftermath: Dylan Larkin returns triumphant, having played a key role in the U.S. winning Olympic gold. Lucas Raymond returns, having been one of Sweden’s offensive leaders, with nine points in five games including eight assists. Moritz Seider returns … well, pretty tired one imagines, as he averaged 26:16 in ice time during Germany’s five Olympic games, slightly higher than his NHL average this season (25:40).
Record: 32-19-6, 70 points
Playoff chances: 70.1%
There might not be a team in the NHL that disliked the Olympic break more than the Sabres, and not just because of the wear and tear on some of their players.
(They have probably exhaled after Tage Thompson left that semifinal game for Team USA but played in the gold medal match.)
Buffalo had won 21 of 28 games since Dec. 9 to catapult itself into the playoff race. It was the third-best team offensively in that span (3.79 goals per game) and, thanks to some outstanding goaltending, the fourth-best defensive team (2.61 goals-against average). We’ve seen streaky Buffalo teams fall short of the playoffs before, and there are some underlying numbers that cause concern. But this one feels different.
Olympic aftermath: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was 7-2-1 in 11 games during that stretch of success mentioned above. He missed the Olympics for Finland with a lower-body injury but is expected to return for Buffalo this week. The health of Luukkonen and Alex Lyon is paramount for the Sabres in their playoff push.
BLINK AND YOU’LL MISS IT.
Tage Thompson extends the USA’s lead. pic.twitter.com/6CQUSRxdYA
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 20, 2026
Record: 32-20-5, 69 points
Playoff chances: 52.9%
The Bruins remain one of the surprises of the division, a team carried by two offensive players, a do-everything defenseman and one of the NHL’s best goaltenders. David Pastrnak (71 points in 52 games) and Morgan Geekie (32 goals in 56 games) have been the team’s top scorers, with Pavel Zacha (37 points in 54 games) and Elias Lindholm (37 in 44 games) offering support. Charlie McAvoy is their third-leading scorer (39 points) and skates a team-high 24:10 per game.
Olympic aftermath: Is Jeremy Swayman OK? He has been great this season with a .903 save percentage and a 22-12-3 record, while being fourth in goals saved above expected (16.2). But he didn’t have the best Olympics, famously giving up a goal from center ice in his only start of the tournament, against Denmark. But hey, he’s got a gold medal now. That’s a good way to move on from such unpleasantness.
Record: 28-22-7, 63 points
Playoff chances: 49.9%
The average for the Senators is skewed a bit here because Stathletes has them at 63.7% to make the playoff cut while the other two sources have them lower than 45%. Ottawa is 10-7-2 since Jan. 1 with a plus-6 in goal differential. The Senators are expected to be buyers at the trade deadline to bolster this group, but really the whole ballgame is their goaltending.
The return of Linus Ullmark should be a stabilizing force for a group that has been one of the NHL’s most mediocre collectives this season. If that happens, the Sens could contend.
Olympic aftermath: Brady Tkachuk returns in a rather awkward way. The Senators captain won Olympic gold with the United States, and talked about the “hatred” that exists between the hockey nations. Ottawa, of course, being the capital of one of those hockey nations …
Long shots at best
Record: 29-25-3, 61 points
Playoff chances: 18.8%
The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions are eight points out of the final wild-card spot as they return from the Olympic break. The Athletic gives them a 30% chance of making the playoffs. Stathletes has then with a 10.8% chance. Reinforcements are on the way, as defenseman Dmitry Kulikov (out since Oct. 9) and forward Tomas Nosek, who hasn’t played this season, are both close to returning.
But the biggest names missing are also working their way back: captain Aleksander Barkov and defenseman Seth Jones, the latter of whom was named to Team USA but had to pull out due to injury. If the Panthers are at full capacity, is there enough time to make the playoff cut?
Olympic aftermath: The Panthers had 10 players appear in the Olympics and saw six of them play for a medal. Players like Brad Marchand battled through injuries to represent their country in the Olympics, as the Panthers star appeared in four of Canada’s six games. What shape are all of these players going to be in with every game mattering so much for Florida? They’ve all played a lot of hockey over the past three seasons.
Record: 27-21-9, 63 points
Playoff chances: 12%
The Athletic is the outlier here, giving Toronto a 21% chance of making the playoffs. The Leafs have a lot of ground to make up in the East and haven’t exactly been world-beaters since Jan. 1, with a .583 points percentage and the 26th-best team defense in that 18-game span. The potential return of injured veteran defenseman Chris Tanev could help turn that number around, but what Toronto really needs is a continued uptick in quality from its goaltenders like Joseph Woll, who had two strong starts before the break.
Olympic aftermath: One of the most fascinating postgame moments after Team USA’s gold medal win saw the Hughes brothers come to defense of Auston Matthews, the team captain. As usual, he was asked what this win meant for his legacy or confidence or, essentially, the Maple Leafs. Jack Hughes said it doesn’t matter what anyone says because “Auston Matthews is a winner” after the gold medal game. Said Quinn Hughes: “That’s what the media in Toronto should be talking about. Auston led us to a championship.”
Well, that’ll certainly quiet everyone down.
A two-piece combo for Auston Matthews. ✌️#WinterOlympics pic.twitter.com/vkQzJrWfJb
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 15, 2026
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
The lock
Record: 36-15-6, 78 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Hurricanes don’t have Jake Guentzel or Mikko Rantanen or Artemi Panarin on this roster, but they might have their deepest offensive team under Rod Brind’Amour. Their 3.39 goals per game average is just ahead of their average in 2021-22 and 2023-24, previously the best offensive seasons of the Brind’Amour era, which started in 2018-19. Carolina has nine players in double digits in goals, with Seth Jarvis (25 in 49 games) leading the way.
Olympic aftermath: Jaccob Slavin was an absolute rock for the Americans and a big reason they won gold, but Hurricanes star Sebastian Aho had a special tournament with six points in six games — including four goals — to lead the Finns to bronze. Without Aleksander Barkov there, he stepped up in the middle.
Work to do
Record: 29-15-12, 70 points
Playoff chances: 81.2%
When Evgeni Malkin plays, good things happen. The Penguins are 23-10-8 when Malkin is in the lineup, as he has been limited to 41 games this season due to an upper-body injury. He’s their second-leading scorer with 44 points and has the highest points-per-game average (1.07) on the team. Pittsburgh was second in the Metro heading into that break, winning seven of nine games …
Olympic aftermath: … and then they watched Sidney Crosby get injured against Czechia and be unable to take the ice in Team Canada’s semifinal and gold medal games.
The good news is that Crosby said he was “pretty close” to playing in that game with a lower-body injury, and all reports were that his injury wasn’t as severe as it might have been. But as Pittsburgh’s leading scoring and undeniable leader, the Penguins need him healthy and ready to roll for the stretch run.
Record: 32-21-5, 69 points
Playoff chances: 52.3%
With Ilya Sorokin, all things are possible. The Islanders goalie is 13-5-0 in his past 18 games with a .928 save percentage and a 2.22 goals-against average with four shutouts. Unsurprisingly, the Islanders are the third-best defensive team in that span (2.59 goals against per game). The problem for all the teams chasing the Islanders, who are third in the Metro, is that Sorokin will only allow them to slip so far down the standings before busting any slump — presuming he remains healthy.
Olympic aftermath: With that injury to Josh Morrissey and just one goal generated in the gold medal game, could Team Canada have needed a little Matthew Schaefer magic in the Olympics — and did it make a mistake leaving him home?
Record: 29-20-7, 65 points
Playoff chances: 52%
The Blue Jackets were another team that probably didn’t want this break to arrive. They were 10-1-0 under new head coach Rick Bowness, scoring much more (3.91 goals per game) and preventing much less (2.18 goals per game) in an admittedly small sample size. They’ve got solid scoring depth but could always seek more at the trade deadline. The key remains the defensive end, where they’ve been the second-best 5-on-5 team in the NHL during Bowness’ 11-game start.
Olympic aftermath: Sometimes players get an Olympic bump. Think about Ryan Miller winning the Vezina Trophy after backstopping Team USA to the gold medal game in Vancouver. Zach Werenski could be in line for a similar bump as he seeks his first Norris Trophy. He’s the Jackets’ leading scorer (62 points in 52 games) and plays 26:22 per night on average. He also was outstanding in Milan and made the key steal-and-pass to set up Jack Hughes‘ golden goal.
1:13
Dylan Larkin and Auston Matthews react to winning gold
Emily Kaplan captures a post game reaction from USA Men’s Hockey’s Dylan Larkin and Auston Matthews.
Record: 29-23-7, 65 points
Playoff chances: 38.5%
The Athletic model gives the Capitals essentially a coin toss chance of making the playoff cut, although the other models are more skeptical. While they’re four points out of a postseason seed, Washington got a huge lift with the return of center Pierre-Luc Dubois, who missed 47 games with an injury. Washington was 22-18-7 in that span.
His return is a serious boost to their center depth and balance at forward for a team ranked 16th in goals per game. If Logan Thompson can continue his dominant season and the Caps get a bit more scoring punch, a third straight trip to the playoffs under Spencer Carbery isn’t out of the question.
Olympic aftermath: How many Tom Wilson skeptics had their eyes opened by the way he played in the Olympics? Sure, Wilson fulfilled his “player most likely to have a Gordie Howe Hat Trick in Milan” destiny, but he also hung with the best offensive players in the world before settling into a more defensive role on a line with Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand. Capitals fans have seen this for years, and now the rest of the hockey world has too.
Long shots at best
Record: 25-20-11, 61 points
Playoff chances: 10.9%
Coach Rick Tocchet’s relationship with young scoring star Matvei Michkov has basically overshadowed the Flyers’ season. Tocchet has been critical of Michkov’s conditioning on several occasions and hasn’t given him the minutes that he played last season. Michkov’s scoring averages have dropped across the board. GM Daniel Briere has had to manage the situation as best he can, assuring everyone that Tocchet has Michkov’s best intentions in mind.
All of this is playing out while the Flyers are trying to stay within striking distance of a playoff spot and are currently eight points out.
Olympic aftermath: The Flyers had just three Olympians. One of them was goalie Dan Vladar, who appeared in one game and gave up three goals on 12 shots in Czechia’s win over France. He has played a much more vital role for Philly, with eight goals saved above expected in 33 games; he has arguably been the Flyers’ MVP.
Lottery-bound
Record: 28-27-2, 58 points
Playoff chances: 3%
The Devils continued their “one step forward, four stumbles back” run this season before the Olympic break. Since an eight-game winning streak to start the season, New Jersey won three games in a row just once. The team all but fell out of the playoff race by losing 14 of 22 games — most of them with Jack Hughes in the lineup — including two devastating division losses to Columbus and the Islanders before the break.
Olympic aftermath: Olympic hero Jack Hughes didn’t play in the Devils’ last games before the Olympic break, nursing a lower-body injury and ensuring it wasn’t worsened to risk a spot in Italy. For that, a nation sends its thanks. But seriously, what a journey for Hughes: The lackluster 4 Nations Face-Off performance, more injuries for the Devils this season, a spot on the fourth line in Milan, becoming their best forward in the tournament and then scoring the golden goal. Incredible stuff.
While he didn’t score a golden goal, Jacob Markstrom prevented a bunch of them. He was great in three games for Sweden, with a .935 save percentage and backstopping a near-upset of Team USA.
JACK HUGHES DELIVERS AMERICA’S GOLDEN MOMENT IN OVERTIME. pic.twitter.com/4foFDOri53
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 22, 2026
Record: 22-29-6, 50 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
Since our last Bubble Watch, the Rangers sent out their second letter to fans declaring a retool in the span of eight seasons. Again, the Rangers don’t rebuild! In 2018, they “reshaped” the roster. “This will not be a rebuild,” said GM Chris Drury in 2026. “This will be a retool built around our core players and prospects.”
Whatever they call it, this declaration already led to the trade of Artemi Panarin to the Los Angeles Kings ahead of more deals. Which is how a team ends up having a zero-point-zero chance of making the playoffs.
Olympic aftermath: There were plenty of critics about the way GM Bill Guerin constructed the Team USA roster, leaving highly skilled players like Cole Caufield home in favor of veteran grinders like Vincent Trocheck and J.T. Miller of the Rangers. Well, the team’s grinders were vital to its gold medal win, helping the Americans go 18-for-18 on the penalty kill.
As Trocheck told the New York Post: “We heard all the talk, that we shouldn’t be here. … We were able to come here and we had a job to do, and it was to be good penalty kill guys, faceoff guys, character guys. We took that role and we ran with it.”
That hard work and hustle might look really good on another team after the trade deadline …
CENTRAL DIVISION
The locks
Record: 37-9-9, 83 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
At one point, the Avalanche looked like they would threaten the Boston Bruins‘ 2022-23 regular-season record of 135 points. Having gone 7-7-2 since the start of 2026, they’d have to pick up the pace again to finish with that kind of total. Then again, they might have to pick up the pace to ward off the teams on their tail in the Central. Colorado is still the best offensive and defensive team in the league and will certainly dabble in getting even better at the deadline.
Olympic aftermath: Is Nathan MacKinnon OK? He took some maintenance time away from Team Canada practice in Milan, and wasn’t completely on his game against the Americans. He’s second in the NHL in points (93 in 55 games) and has a six-goal lead over Connor McDavid for the league lead. One lingering question from the Olympics: What happened to the stuffed animal the IOC gave him?
Record: 34-14-9, 77 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Stars have also regressed a bit from their early-season pace, going 9-6-2 in their past 17 games. One problem has been their scoring, which was down (3.06 goals per game) in that span from their season average (3.41) from before Jan. 1. Jason Robertson (1.18) and Mikko Rantanen (1.00) were the only scorers to average over a point per game in that span.
That said, Dallas remains one of the elite teams in the NHL this season, and a serious contender to finally break through the conference final ceiling to play for a Stanley Cup.
Olympic aftermath: Rantanen was another example of an NHL star dealing with an injury suffered at the Olympic. The Team Finland star has a lower-body injury that Dallas coach Glen Gulutzan said might keep him out for the first two games after the Olympic break.
Record: 34-14-10, 78 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
On Dec. 12, the date of the Quinn Hughes trade, the Avalanche had a 22-2-7 record and a 12-point lead over the Wild. Bolstered by their new star defenseman, the Wild went 17-5-5 and have now closed the gap with the Avs to just five points — although Colorado does have three games in hand. But the possibility of climbing out of that 2-vs-3 series in the Central is certainly on the table for the Wild if their defense can improve a bit, as Minnesota is 18th in expected goals against at 5-on-5.
Olympic aftermath: Obviously, the goal Jack Hughes scored is going to overshadow every other offensive moment for Team USA in the gold medal game. But let’s not allow Matt Boldy‘s absurd puck-juggling goal to put the Americans up 1-0 become lost to time — not only in his stick-handling skills but in splitting Canada’s top defensive pairing. Boldy might be one of the most underrated goal scorers in the NHL, with 59 goals over the past two seasons. Perhaps now that’ll be better appreciated.
ABSOLUTE CINEMA 🏒 Matt Boldy locks in an EARLY Team USA lead in the #WinterOlympics gold medal game! pic.twitter.com/4cEydZe5ju
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 22, 2026
Work to do
Record: 30-23-4, 64 points
Playoff chances: 86%
The Mammoth were very close to being considered a lock in the Western Conference based on the probabilities. But the reality is that they’re only four points up on the Kings for the wild card, and likely don’t have the ability to finish in the top three in their own division.
But the Mammoth have been one of the best teams in the NHL since Jan. 1, with a .735 points percentage and a 2.41 goals-against average, which was the second best in the NHL during that span. Even better news: Standout center Logan Cooley is expected back soon from a lower-body injury that has limited him to just 29 games this season.
Olympic aftermath: While Clayton Keller was limited to just 19:05 of ice time across six games in winning a gold medal with Team USA, JJ Peterka played over 104 minutes in helping Germany to the quarterfinals. He had a goal and three assists in five games.
Record: 26-24-7, 59 points
Playoff chances: 20.3%
Depending on the week, the Predators are a team that could push its way into a wild-card spot — or a team that should inspire the front office to discuss trade plans with the veteran core. Take the last eight games before the Olympic break: Nashville picked up nine out of 16 points, but that included three overtime losses where they left points on the table. The Predators have done an admirable job in turning what looked like a lost season around, but to what end?
Olympic aftermath: One theory about Juuse Saros ahead of the Olympics was that he could use his time with Team Finland to get on track for the final weeks of the NHL season. He had an .892 save percentage in 44 starts with Nashville. With Finland, he had a .940 save percentage in six games, winning a bronze medal for his nation and giving Canada a scare before that. Will that translate to a renewed swagger for the Preds? They certainly hope so.
Long shots at best
Record: 22-26-8, 52 points
Playoff chances: 8.2%
If there’s a path to playoff contention for the Jets, it’s on the back of goalie Connor Hellebuyck. He has been limited to 36 games this season due to missing time after surgery, and his numbers this season (.900 save percentage) aren’t up to the usual standards of the reigning Vezina and Hart winner.
The Jets are 11 points out of a playoff spot, with no real chance of breaking into the top three of the Central. We’d say this is an impossible mission for Winnipeg, but then we just saw Hellebuyck lead Team USA to its first gold medal in 46 years. Through him all things are possible.
Olympic aftermath: Defenseman Josh Morrissey played only 7:10 in the Olympics before leaving the Canadian lineup due to injury — and the team certainly missed having the accomplished puck-moving defenseman on its blue line. So will the Jets, as it’s expected Morrissey will miss some time after the Olympic break. He has 42 points in 56 games for Winnipeg, averaging. 24:37 per game.
THAT WAS ONE HELLE-BUYCK OF A STOP. 😳 pic.twitter.com/N3wCimdBGw
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 22, 2026
Lottery-bound
Record: 22-26-9, 52 points
Playoff chances: 0.3%
The Blackhawks looked to be competitive for a minute this season, but are 11-17-4 over their past 32 games and 3-7-2 in the 12 games leading up to the Olympic break. But while the playoffs are likely out of reach, it’ll be interesting to see if the break helps continue to reignite Connor Bedard‘s game, as he had goals in three of four games before the NHL pause.
Olympic aftermath: Chicago had just one Olympian in Teuvo Teravainen, who had one point in six games for Finland. Expect the Blackhawks to have a few more by the time the 2030 Games arrive.
Record: 20-28-9, 49 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%
The Blues are in a lost season, sitting 14 points out of a playoff seed and skating to a minus-56 goal differential. The question isn’t which players might be on the way out as St. Louis retools; the question is which players can they move considering their trade protection? Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou both have full no-trade clauses, while players like Brayden Schenn and Justin Faulk have limited no-trade clauses. GM Doug Armstrong has said he’s not making trades for the sake of making them, however.
Olympic aftermath: Here’s how well Jordan Binnington played for Team Canada in Milan: the Canadians lost in the gold medal game and hardly anyone is blaming their goaltending. Binnington was seen a potential liability by some entering the tournament, mostly because he has had a horrific season with the Blues (8-17-6 record, minus-24.9 goals saved above expected). But outside of a handful of goals, Binnington was solid and gave Canada a chance to win gold, further cementing his reputation as a big-game goalie.
PACIFIC DIVISION
The lock
Record: 27-16-14, 68 points
Playoff chances: 97%
Vegas is 10-6-3 since Jan. 1, cranking up the offense (3.79 goals per game, seventh in the NHL) thanks to a torrid run from Mark Stone (29 points in 19 games) and Jack Eichel (27 points) on the team’s top line. The goaltending is another story, as only Akira Schmid is playing slightly above expected, according to Money Puck. Adin Hill is minus-10.6 goals saved above expected in his 12 games this season. Carter Hart is out long term and wasn’t doing much before sustaining a lower-body injury on Jan. 8.
Olympic aftermath: While Eichel and Noah Hanifin come back to the desert with Olympic gold, it’s Mitch Marner who might have had the most transformative experience in Milan. He had a goal and four assists in six games for Canada, but that goal was an overtime game winner against Czechia in the quarterfinals that ended one of the tournament’s biggest upset bids. For a guy who has constantly been criticized for not scoring when it counts in the postseason, that was a big moment for Marner and his critics.
MITCH MARNER CALLS GAME IN OT. 🇨🇦💥#WinterOlympics pic.twitter.com/8nCO7eg2fa
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 18, 2026
Work to do
Record: 28-22-8, 64 points
Playoff chances: 80.1%
Since Dec. 1, Connor McDavid has 60 points (23 goals, 37 assists) in 32 games. That’s astounding. In that span, the Oilers are 17-12-3 for a .578 points percentage. That’s confounding.
Part of the problem is the supporting cast surrounding McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Part of it, as usual, is the goaltending: Tristan Jarry, acquired to address the issues, went 6-4-1 with a .870 save percentage in 11 games with the Oilers. He’s part of a larger defensive problem for the Oilers but hasn’t been the same goalie after a lower-body injury. Hopefully the Olympic break provided the rest and reset he needed.
Olympic aftermath: As if he needed any more motivation (or external pressure), McDavid has been singled out for Canada not winning the gold medal even though he had 13 points in six games and was named tournament MVP.
“McDavid tried in the end to win the game by himself, which he is capable of doing, but that’s not necessarily how hockey works,” wrote the Toronto Sun. Add in a pair of losses in the Stanley Cup Final, and the Canadian media is ginning up a “Connor can’t win the big one” narrative, 4 Nations Face-Off apparently notwithstanding.
Record: 30-23-3, 63 points
Playoff chances: 75.6%
A nine-game losing streak to start 2026 made it appear the Ducks had finally regressed to also-ran status in the Western Conference. Winning nine of 11 games heading into the Olympic break showed that Anaheim is in this race for the long haul … and that teams with young star players can undoubtedly be a little streaky.
Speaking of which, rookie Beckett Sennecke was Anaheim’s leading scorer in that 11-game span with 10 points. He’s second to Montreal’s Ivan Demidov (46 points) in the rookie scoring race, with 44 points.
Olympic aftermath: The biggest Anaheim-related impact on the Olympics was Leo Carlsson not being available to Team Sweden due to injury, which severely impacted the effectiveness of the team’s center depth. Hopefully he’s back soon. Goalie Lukas Dostal, meanwhile, had the misfortune of playing Canada twice … but he nearly pulled the upset of the tournament off in the quarterfinal rematch, stopping 37 shots before losing in overtime.
Record: 23-19-14, 60 points
Playoff chances: 66.2%
There’s a wide swath of playoff probabilities for the Kings. The Athletic has them at 80% while Money Puck has them at 55.1%. What we know: The Kings are one of the NHL’s better defensive teams (2.77 goals against per game) in front of starting goalie and Olympic spectator Darcy Kuemper. What we don’t know: how the addition of Artemi Panarin in a big trade before the Olympic break, and the loss of Kevin Fiala at the Olympics, will impact the Kings’ moribund offense, which is 30th in the NHL (2.54 goals per game).
Olympic aftermath: Fiala’s injury with Team Switzerland is every general manager’s worst nightmare at the Olympics. He’s likely done for the season after breaking his leg against Team Canada, getting wheeled off the ice facedown with an air cast on. He’s second on Los Angeles in points (40) and goals (22). Once he’s on long-term IR, the Kings can use his $7.875 million in cap space to bolster their lineup. They’d probably prefer to have Fiala.
Long shots at best
Record: 27-20-9, 63 points
Playoff chances: 41.2%
Who to believe? The Athletic has the Kraken with an 18% probability to make the playoffs. Money Puck puts it at 68.2%. On the season, Seattle has given up three more goals than it has scored, but since Jan. 1 the Kraken are a plus-12 in goal differential thanks to an uptick in offense, getting 10 goals each from Jared McCann and Matty Beniers. Meanwhile, their goaltending continues to thrive with Philipp Grubauer (.916 save percentage since Jan. 1) and Joey Daccord (.902).
Olympic aftermath: Kaapo Kakko has six goals in 40 games for the Kraken this season. He had three goals in six games in helping Team Finland win bronze in Milan, with 15 shots on goal. More of that Kaapo Kakko, please.
Record: 27-24-4, 58 points
Playoff chances: 23.4%
The Sharks entered the Olympic break five points outside of a playoff spot, which is not an insurmountable gap. But after being one of the NHL’s most surprising contenders, the Sharks are a .500 points percentage teams since Jan. 1 (7-7-1) with a minus-7 goal differential. They’re a team that will go as far as Macklin Celebrini can drag them, and he has shown he can drag them quite far. The second-year sensation has 81 points in 55 games. If the Sharks somehow end up in a playoff spot, he could win league MVP.
Olympic aftermath: Celebrini was one of the stories of the tournament for Team Canada. The team took a chance on the 19-year-old thanks to his outstanding play and the endorsement from players like Sidney Crosby. He didn’t disappoint, with five goals and five assists in six games, skating next to Connor McDavid. But he couldn’t convert on a few golden opportunities against the United States, which will certainly be a learning experience for the 2030 Games.
MACKLIN CELEBRINI GOAL. CALE MAKAR ASSIST.
Team Canada grabs their first goal of the Winter Olympics! pic.twitter.com/Y9g95czCNp
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 12, 2026
Lottery-bound
Record: 23-27-6, 52 points
Playoff chances: 1.1%
The Flames are one of the NHL’s most talked-about teams, but unfortunately not for their playoff chances, sitting 11 points out of the last wild-card spot. Will they move centers Nazem Kadri and Blake Coleman to contenders? Will defenseman MacKenzie Weegar be on the move, with five years left on this contract? Will these players and others waive their trade protection to make moves happen? Such are the questions for a team already looking toward next season.
Olympic aftermath: The Flames will be one of the most well-rested teams in the league after the Olympic break. They had just one player in the tournament, with forward Martin Pospisil playing four games for Slovakia, notching one point.
Record: 18-33-6, 42 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
The Canucks have tanked hard this season, going into the Olympic break with a .368 points percentage for worst in the NHL. Vancouver is 7-16-3 since trading Quinn Hughes to the Minnesota Wild, averaging 2.31 goals per game for second worst in the NHL. The worst team offensively after the Quinn Hughes trade? That would be New Jersey (2.04), which famously couldn’t close a deal for the star defenseman.
Olympic aftermath: There was a lot of attention around how Elias Pettersson would fare on Sweden and away from the mess that is the Canucks. He scored two goals against Slovakia in group play, but that was it for the Vancouver star. He ended up being outscored by Czech teammates Filip Hronek (five points in five games) and David Kampf (three points) at the Olympics.
