Chase Elliott muscled his way to a second 2025 victory on Sunday at Kansas Speedway, clinching a NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 8 bid in the process. With his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson a near-lock to advance to the Round of 8, No. 5 will likely be joining him — but which one will be riding the wave of momentum?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs contenders after the Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN Bet at Kansas Speedway and before Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
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Analysis: Elliott led just 24 laps in a race dominated by Denny Hamlin, but — as alluded to in last week’s Turning Point — Toyota gave an inch, and Hendrick Motorsports took a mile, led by No. 9’s bruising final lap at Kansas as he rode to the win. He now gets to race pressure-free at one of his best tracks, looking to cement the mojo he and the No. 9 group are building together in the quest for title No. 2.
Analysis: Blaney led exactly one Kansas lap, and that may have been the highlight for all of Team Penske, which walked out of the Midwest with a trio of sub-20 finishes among its three playoff drivers. Thankfully, one of them (Blaney) is already locked in to the Round of 8, but with one teetering on the edge (Joey Logano) and the other in must-win territory (Austin Cindric), it’s extremely unlikely all three will advance.
Analysis: Hamlin certainly would’ve preferred to have won that battle at the line at Kansas, but, big picture, walking into the Charlotte Roval cutoff race with a plus-48 to the bubble is still close to about as best-case-scenario as one can hope for, short of a prior victory. There’s no slowing down the series’ elder statesman, and Sunday marks as good a time as any for him to corral his second career top 10 at the Roval, but he may not even need to.
Analysis: Seeing Larson lead just a single lap in a race at which he was the heavy favorite — and his teammate went on to win — isn’t quite as heartening a weekend in the Heartland the No. 5 team was hoping for, but as good as Hamlin’s points position is, Larson’s is even better at plus-54. It would be an all-time collapse for Larson to miss the Round of 8, particularly at a track he enters as the defending winner, so look for a refocused No. 5 team to lock in and be ready for the Round of 8 in two weeks.
Analysis: Don’t let the dip fool you — Bell had a strong Kansas showing, running third and leading his second-most laps in a race since a Phoenix win in March. The 2022 Roval winner is getting hot once again and could find his way to a second win there after turning in a P2 on NASCAR’s home court last fall.
Analysis: Byron has led exactly five laps since a dominant win at Iowa Speedway to open August, a lack of speed that is starting to look increasingly concerning as we hit the playoff halfway point. He also hasn’t led any laps at the Roval since 2021, but could actually see a decent turnaround this weekend after turning in a pair of top threes there the past two seasons.
Analysis: All this guy does is turn in top fives, with Sunday’s 13th such result of the season matching his entire top-five output from the past three seasons combined. No laps led and a career average finish of 23.8 in his four Roval starts don’t scream “win” this weekend, especially with a certain New Zealander in the field, but it’s hard not to see how he significantly betters his prior output there on Sunday.
Analysis: No. 22 crew chief Paul Wolfe told NASCAR.com after Loudon that he didn’t “feel good about Kansas at all” and, as it turns out, his concerns were well-founded, as Logano finished outside the top 20 after the weekend started poorly with an issue in practice. He’s on the edge of missing the Round of 8 at the Roval for the second year in a row, but actually sneakily excels there (8.6 average finish) despite no wins to his credit.
Analysis: There just doesn’t seem to be anything resembling race-winning speed in the No. 1 car right now as Chastain has led double-digit laps on a non-drafting track just once this year (in March), but he’s still consistent enough to be collecting points (35 points in an 11th-place Kansas run). He isn’t in a must-win situation despite being below the bubble, but still, the Roval isn’t the road course Chastain would hope to hinge his championship hopes on, with just one top 10 in six tries for an overall 24.0 average finish.
Analysis: Reddick gave it his all at Kansas, a potential winning spot for the lone remaining winless playoff driver, but he had to settle for a thin, 30-point P7 after failing to lead a lap or collect crucial stage points. Though it hasn’t happened yet, the Roval could potentially produce a victory for the prolific road-course winner, with a sterling 7.8 average finish there in his starts. Otherwise, we could see our first 2024 Championship 4 driver knocked out.
Analysis: All that to only pick up a point in the standings is wild, but there’s no denying that Wallace took a tremendous leap forward this year and deserves to be in the championship conversation, even if the end of his 2025 playoffs comes at Charlotte. There’s no guarantee it does, however, as despite road courses historically being Wallace’s pain point, No. 23 owns a respectable 11.5 average finish there in his four starts with 23XI Racing.
Analysis: Cindric has just one top 10 since Pocono Raceway, exactly none of which have come in the playoffs. Unfortunately, that’s no way to win a title, and No. 2 essentially has to win the Roval in order to advance. Fortunately for him, the accomplished road racer could actually do it, netting a P4 at the track last year. With none of his five 2025 top 10s coming on road courses, however, it doesn’t appear likely to happen.
