With the Africa Cup of Nations Last 16 here, we have some juicy ties to look forward to, including Algeria vs DR Congo and South Africa vs Cameroon.
Ahead of the round, ESPN’s Ed Dove gives his match-by-match predictions for each of the Last 16 AFCON showdowns, and identifies where the games will be won and lost.
Saturday 4pmUK/6pm CAT
Senegal overpowered Botswana and Benin during the group stage, and their range and variety of attacking options should prove too much for Sudan.
The Falcons of Jediane will be a stern challenge however, their physicality troubled Algeria in their opener — despite conceding inside two minutes from Riyad Mahrez — and they proved against Equatorial Guinea that they can be rugged, well drilled, and difficult to break down.
Nonetheless, a Teranga Lions midfield of Idrissa Gana Gueye and Pape Gueye should have the upper hand on their direct opponents.
Sudan advanced without scoring a goal during regular player, and it’s hard to see how they trouble Senegal beyond set pieces, while the Teranga Lions have both tournament knockout experience and an immense wealth of firepower.
Dove’s Prediction: Senegal advance
Saturday 7pmUK/9pm CAT
This is the first opportunity for an upset; Tunisia will be fancied given their AFCON pedigree, but even head coach Sami Trabelsi has urged the team to have a mental reset after they struggled during the group stage.
They were flattered by the 3-2 defeat by Nigeria, being utterly outclassed for the first 70 minutes of the contest, while vulnerabilities in goal represent a clear area for Mali to exploit.
Mali will fancy their chances, despite drawing all three of their group games, including against lowly Zambia and Comoros.
They upped their game against hosts Morocco, looking vibrant, combative and incisive in the second half, where they were arguably unfortunate not to have more than the one penalty they were awarded.
Mali are the most aggressive team in the tournament — with 10 yellows and one red — and if they can rediscover the same vitality as they showed against Morocco, have the capacity to bully the Carthage Eagles.
Dove’s Prediction: Mali advance
2:10
Who are the players to watch for Morocco for the rest of AFCON?
Ed Dove reacts to Morocco’s 3-0 win over Zambia as he discusses who can be key for the hosts moving forward.
Sunday 4pm UK/6pm CAT
On paper, the biggest mismatch of the Last 16. Morocco, playing in front of their own fans in the national stadium, impressed during the group stage — apart from that second half against Mali — with Brahim Díaz and Ayoub El Kaabi heading up a talented side that has greater technical prowess and arguably a more complete midfield than anyone else in the competition.
The return of Achraf Hakimi against Zambia should also help them overcome a Tanzania side who have remarkably advanced to the knockouts despite still never having won a Nations Cup game in their history.
The East Africans progressed with two points and a minus one goal difference following draws with Tunisia and Uganda, although they deserve credit for their courageous defensive display in defeat against Nigeria; can goalkeeper Zuberi ‘Foba’ Masudi pull of yet more heroics on Sunday?
Dove’s Prediction: Morocco advance
South Africa vs Cameroon
Sunday 7pm UK/9pm CAT
One of the toughest match-ups to call, with Cameroon defying the critics to finish second in Group F, despite their tumultuous build-up to the competition.
The Indomitable Lions haven’t been entirely free flowing, but Christian Kofane has emerged as an effective attacking option, not least due to his wondergoal against Mozambique, while Carlos Baleba has effectively put his poor Brighton form behind him.
South Africa demonstrated a lack of composure and ideas for the best part of an hour against 10 men of Egypt, and so despite seeing off poorer opposition in Zimbabwe and Angola, it remains to be seen how they will fare against a true continental heavyweight, albeit a troubled one.
Oswin Appollis and Lyle Foster, with six direct goal contributions between them, have the capacity to trouble the five-time champions, while Bafana Bafana will be buoyed by their strong form under ex-Cameroon boss Hugo Broos and their experience of reaching the semis last time around.
Dove’s Prediction: Cameroon advance (just)
Egypt vs Benin
Monday 4pm UK/6pm CAT
Don’t expect a classic here. Egypt haven’t really found their stride at the tournament so far, although Omar Marmoush did look bright in the 2-1 victory over Zimbabwe, while Mohamed Salah has made some decisive contributions, scoring the winners against both Zim and South Africa.
Their well-disciplined, structured defensive shape is unlikely to be too troubled by a Benin side who scored just once across their three group games, and only registered three shots on target against a limited Botswana side.
Already, Benin have broken new ground by winning a first ever match at the Nations Cup, but I can’t see a repeat of their shocking Last 16 elimination of Morocco last time around.
Dove’s Prediction: Egypt advance
Nigeria vs Mozambique
Monday 7pm UK/9pm CAT
The Super Eagles have been among the most impressive sides in the tournament so far, qualifying in top spot from Group C as one of only three teams to preserve a 100-percent record in the competition so far.
With Ademola Lookman demonstrating the kind of form that won him the African Footballer of the Year award, Victor Osimhen increasing in sharpness, Alex Iwobi creating more goalscoring chances per match than any other player here, and Samuel Chukwueze bringing his Fulham form to the AFCON, they should have too much for the Mambas.
Mozambique’s matchday two win against a shambolic Gabon team was enough to see them through, but do they have enough in Geny Catamo, Faizal Bangal and the eye-catching fullbacks to trouble a nervy Super Eagles backline?
Dove’s Prediction: Nigeria advance
Tuesday 4pm UK/6pm CAT Surely the pick of the round. Algeria have looked like the real deal during their group campaign, qualifying with maximum nine points and boasting some of the tournament’s outstanding players in Riyad Mahrez, Ibrahim Maza and Mohamed Amoura. However, they haven’t yet come up against a foe as ominous as the DRC, who enter the knockouts on a roll after winning the African World Cup qualifying playoffs before going through their group unbeaten. Their attempts to rack up the goals against Botswana in their final group game in order to pip Senegal to top spot demonstrated how keen the Leopards were to avoid Algeria in the knockouts, and it will require an almighty effort for Sebastien Desabre’s side to neutralise the most irresistible attacking unit in the tournament. The Central Africans have attacking quality of their own, not least with the likes of Cédric Bakambu, Théo Bongonda, and Gaël Kakuta, but Algeria have looked utterly complete, while the presence of their extensive ‘home’ support in North Africa should give them the edge. Dove’s Prediction: Algeria advance Tuesday 7pm UK/9pm CAT A West African derby between these two neighbours, Burkina Faso have reached the semifinals at least in three of their last five tournament appearances, so write them off at your peril against the defending champions. Nonetheless, the Ivory Coast have shown more in this tournament, with Amad Diallo clearly enjoying himself, and will be entering with momentum after their come-from-behind victory to see off hapless Gabon in their last match. The opening stages of that match highlighted the Elephants’ vulnerability, and while the Stallions do have the talent to exploit those weaknesses, they’ve hardly showed it at the tournament so far, despite averaging 56-percent possession across their three group games. Expect the Ivorians, among the most comfortable teams with the ball at feet in this competition, to have the better of the action on the grass, while Burkina Faso could be a fearsome prospect from set pieces. Dove’s Prediction: Ivory Coast advanceAlgeria vs DR Congo
