This past week was a weird one for upsets. We didn’t get any huge, unexpected upsets of top-tier teams. But we did have some small underdogs pull through on their opponent’s home floor, such as UNC beating Virginia, Texas Tech beating Houston, and Illinois beating Purdue. Let’s see what this week brings!
Kentucky over Vanderbilt
Jan 21, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats center Malachi Moreno (24) passes the ball during the first half against the Texas Longhorns at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
The Wildcats have sustained a lot of injuries in the past few weeks, but I don’t think that will matter in this one. We have seen that you beat Vanderbilt by using size and strength in the frontcourt, and this could be a breakout game for any of Malachi Moreno, Andrija Jelavic, or Mo Dioubate.
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Missouri over Alabama
The Alabama Crimson Tide has a myriad of issues going on. Not only are they facing national scrutiny over the eligibility of Charles Bediako, but they also have injuries to Ajay Allen and Aden Holloway. I think there’s just too much going on with Alabama right now for them to be fully focused and engaged with this game, and Missouri has a breakout star emerging in T.O. Barrett.
Texas over Auburn
Jan 21, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain (3) passes the ball during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Sean Miller’s Longhorns have shown that they have a high ceiling, coming off a 20-point win over a ranked Georgia team. Auburn has shown us a low floor, with a loss to Missouri already on the schedule. Miller has Dailyn Swain playing the best basketball of his career, and I think he plays a huge role as Texas continues their march to an NCAA Tournament bid in his first season.
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Florida State over California
I’m going to hop back on my travel schedule soapbox here. Let’s get this straight: Florida State is not good. Cal is better. But FSU has Rodney McCray and Chauncey Wiggins, who both play well at home, and Cal has not won a game outside the state of California this season. I think the road trip gets the better of them here.
Dayton over Saint Louis
Nov 27, 2025; Kissimmee, Florida, USA; Dayton Flyers guard Jordan Derkack (4) forward Amael L’Etang (29) and guard Bryce Heard (10) react after a basket against the Georgetown Hoyas in overtime at State Farm Field House. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Saint Louis is rolling right now — if not for a desperation 3-pointer at the buzzer by Stanford, the Billikens would be undefeated. But all good things must come to an end. The “Battle for the Archbaron’s Cup” has been anything but predictable over the years, and would make a great occasion for Dayton to pull off the upset. Dayton finally has their two centers, Amael L’Etang and Malcolm Thomas, healthy, and may also get back Jordan Derkack for this game.
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