January transfers usually don’t work out. Granted, most transfers usually don’t work out, but the winter window is when an already-inefficient market becomes a place where you’re paying 80 cents for the opportunity to guess heads or tails on a coin flip with a 20-cent payout.
January signings tend to have about a 20% markup when compared with similar signings made in the summer. Over the past decade, there have been very few — if any — teams who made a big winter signing and then got carried by that player to a title that wouldn’t have otherwise happened. And one study found that about 50% of strikers signed in this window have gone on to score zero goals from their arrival through the end of the season.
This isn’t to say that January signings are all destined to fail. Just look at Virgil van Dijk, Bruno Fernandes or Martin Ødegaard. But in most cases, if you’re spending lots of money on signings that you know are going to cost extra and are unlikely to make a massive difference between now and the end of the season, then you’re desperate.
And, well, Premier League clubs have spent more than €400 million on transfers over the past month, while no other league spent more than €230 million. The most desperate clubs in the world are the ones in the richest league in the world because the average level of play has never been higher, and neither has the reward for finishing higher up in the table.
Which teams, though, were the most desperate in this transfer window that closed Monday? We’ve ranked all 20 Premier League teams from the least to the most desperate.
Not desperate, but they could’ve been
20. Liverpool
19. Wolverhampton Wanderers
18. Arsenal
17. Newcastle United
16. Burnley
One of my favorite recurring bits of commentary, fan reaction and general internet angst is this one about Liverpool. The team spent a club record amount of money and added seven new players this past summer, they let a bunch of key players leave, and it totally disrupted the progress and cohesion of the team. So, therefore, the solution to this problem must be: to sign even more new players.
Liverpool have a lot of injuries, they’re likely to end up in a three-for-two battle with Chelsea and Manchester United for the final two spots in the Champions League (even with a possible extra fifth place), and they have a decent shot at winning the Champions League. They responded to that by … not signing anyone. This should surprise absolutely no one.
The last time they were in a similar position, they finished the season with Nat Phillips and Rhys Williams as their starting center backs — and still qualified for the Champions League. They did make a €60 million signing at center back, of course, but Rennes’ star Jérémy Jacquet won’t join the club until the summer.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have depth to spare, going two or three deep at every position. Despite the furor over their 3-2 loss to Manchester United last weekend, they’ve remained big favorites to win the league. A week later, they’re even bigger favorites to win the league after Manchester City and Aston Villa dropped points. Newcastle, meanwhile, continue to operate in a way that I don’t really understand — what is the Saudi ownership group actually trying to achieve here by not throwing their financial weight around more?
At the other end of the table, Wolves and Burnley have both made some minor moves — both ins and outs — as they each seem resigned to the fact that they won’t be in the Premier League next season. Wolves’ one big move was an outgoing one: They’re collecting close to €50 million in exchange for allowing Jørgen Strand Larsen to move to Crystal Palace.
We signed someone — but he’s not playing any time soon
15. Brentford
14. AFC Bournemouth
13. Sunderland
Brentford and Sunderland both signed young players you’ve probably never heard of (Kaye Furo and Nilson Angulo, anyone?), and Bournemouth let their best player (Antoine Semenyo) leave for Man City and then signed a couple of much-more expensive young players who you actually might have heard of (Rayan and Alex Tóth). None of these teams are doing anything where the goal is to maximize the number of points they win this season.
We signed someone — but he’s going to be playing for us for a long time
12. Fulham
It felt like a big deal when Oscar Bobb was injured last season … as in, Manchester City appeared to be relying on him to play significant minutes as part of their forward rotation. A year-and-a-half later, he’s off to Fulham for a fee (€31 million) that seems (a) way too low for a 22-year-old I was able to write that previous sentence about, and (b) way too high for a player who has a goal and two assists in seven Premier League starts. He has attempted eight total shots in the league.
That said, I don’t hate the risk for Fulham, who aren’t in danger of being relegated this season but need the squad to get younger as soon as possible. Now, I would not have felt the same way about the potential, similarly priced move for PSV’s Ricardo Pepi, but that fell apart on the last day of the window.
We’ll take a small bite, why not?
11. Brighton & Hove Albion
10. Leeds United
9. Everton
8. Nottingham Forest
Using the projections from Simon Tinsley’s website, Analytic.Football, all these teams have a combined 2% chance of finishing in the top five and a combined 17% chance of being relegated. All of the relegation equity comes from Leeds and Forest, who both signed a player or two on loan, while Forest also signed Man City’s backup keeper Stefan Ortega, permanently.
The meager Champions League probabilities come just from Brighton and Everton. Neither team made any permanent transfers — just a couple of loans to add some depth and plug some minor holes.
We have our feet in the freezer and our heads in the oven
7. Crystal Palace
There’s a joke among statisticians that if your head is in the oven and your feet are in the freezer, then your average body temperature would suggest that everything is fine. And I think that just about sums up the current situation at Palace.
Their head coach Oliver Glasner already announced that he’s leaving after the season, they let their club captain, Marc Guéhi, leave for City, and star striker Jean-Philippe Mateta announced he wanted to leave, only for AC Milan to pull out of a deal on deadline day. This season is clearly a wash … right?
Well, they also spent €90 million combined on winger Brennan Johnson and striker Jørgen Strand Larsen. Johnson was a fine signing for a team that badly needed forward depth, but JSL literally has one goal this season, and he’s a striker. He’s barely attempting more than one shot per game. They also brought in Evann Guessand on loan from Aston Villa. With the Champions League out of reach, I guess this is all for a potential UEFA Conference League run?
1:39
Has Crystal Palace’s transfer strategy let them down again?
James Olley examines the collapse of Jean-Philippe Mateta’s move to AC Milan and what it says about Palace’s recruitment strategy.
We fired our coaches but didn’t sign any new players
6. Manchester United
5. Chelsea
There’s the new manager bump, and then there’s whatever is happening at both of these clubs, who have scored 16 goals from 10.6 xG in Liam Rosenior’s and Michael Carrick’s first three matches. Can the performances catch up with the results? It usually doesn’t work that way.
We just wanted a better, younger version of what we already had
4. Tottenham Hotspur
I think Conor Gallagher is a fantastic, Champions League-quality midfielder. He’s right at the beginning of his prime years, and Spurs got him for a €40 million fee — less than Palace paid to bring in Strand Larsen, who is the same age. In a vacuum, this is a solid move for the team currently 14th in the table.
In reality, Gallagher is a hard-working, glue-guy-type midfielder, and Tottenham already have a bunch of those. The midfield still doesn’t really offer any skill at the main thing midfielders are supposed to do: pass the ball.
We’re sure doing a lot
3. West Ham United
2. Manchester City
Two wins from their past three have the Hammers at least within touching distance of 17th place. They’re still heavy favorites to be relegated, but there’s enough of a chance that they survive that you could at least make the case that a bunch of “win-now” signings would be worth it.
It seems as if they’ve tried to both plan for a future in the Championship and improve the team right now. How else to explain the decision to let Lucas Paquetá leave for a €42.25 million return to Brazil while at the same time bringing in 27-year-old forward Valentín Castellanos from Lazio? They’ve signed two other players: 22-year-old Pablo from Gil Vicente in Portugal and 30-year-old Adama Traoré from Fulham.
Back at the other end of the table, Man City’s transfer business continues to baffle. They paid an extra €23 million to bring in Palace defender Marc Guéhi, who would’ve been a free agent after the season. And then they paid €72 million to sign 26-year-old winger Semenyo, who has been great for Bournemouth but doesn’t really seem as if he helps with a position of need for a team with plenty of excellent attackers.
In a league in which there are real spending controls now, you don’t spend nearly €100 million on transfer fees for those two players unless you’re desperate.
We don’t care about the future because the present is a gift
1. Aston Villa
Villa are the second-oldest team in the league by average age. They’ve signed and loaned two players in; they’ve transferred and loaned two players out. The average age of the players who left: 25.5; the average age of the players who arrived: 27.5.
They’ve signed Douglas Luiz on loan from Juventus — and they badly need midfield depth — but you only spend €2 million on a 15-game loan when you’re desperate. This team don’t have unlimited money, and the squad is going to need to start getting younger really soon, but Villa have instead invested €21 million into signing 28-year-old Tammy Abraham. It doesn’t get more “win-now” than those two moves.
Villa are currently seven points clear of sixth-place Liverpool. They just spent a lot of money to make sure that gap doesn’t get closed up over the next three months.
