The Virginia Cavaliers (16-2, 5-1 ACC) men’s basketball team will return to Charlottesville for the first time in two weeks this Saturday at noon, facing the North Carolina Tar Heels (15-4, 3-3 ACC).
The ‘Hoos currently hold a solo third-place spot in the ACC standings while the Tar Heels are in a five-way tie for seventh. Ryan Odom and his red-hot team will be welcomed back into John Paul Jones Arena, where they are a perfect 10-0 this season, in front of a sold-out crowd.
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Hubert Davis’ Tar Heels have yet to win a road ACC game this season. But, as they are every year, the Heels are a highly-talented team that can play with any team in the nation. Virginia will be getting North Carolina’s best effort on Saturday as they are in need of a big win (coming off three losses in their last five games) to move up in the conference standings and help solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament this March.
Who should you be looking out for? What is the key to victory in this one? Who is going to come out on top? We have you covered.
Who to look out for:
The bigs: Hubert Davis’ game plan on Saturday should be to get the ball in the paint and to his big men as much as he possibly can. Caleb Wilson is among the nation’s top freshmen and has been a joy to watch compete and dominate when he is on the floor, as he averages 19.8 points per game and grabs 10.4 boards per contest as well.
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Wilson is joined by 7-foot junior from Estonia, Henri Veesar. Vessar grabs more than 9 boards per game, is the Tar Heels’ best three-point shooter, hitting 48.1% of his threes, and is averaging 1.2 blocked shots per game.
Virginia’s overall success in this contest depends on how they defend this pair on defense and how they attack them on offense, potentially getting one or both into foul trouble early.
Pivotal Matchup
North Carolina has been impressive, to say the very least, with its defensive rebounding this season. The Heels have the height, and possess a skill that goes unnoticed if you have it, but is evident if you don’t in the ability to grab and possess the basketball coming off the rim. The Tar Heels’ defensive rebounding percentage is nearly 80%, ranking in the top-15 in the nation. Teams are only grabbing around eight offensive boards per game when they face Carolina, which would be well under Virginia’s average of 12.6 per game.
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Something will have to give on Saturday afternoon, and one team will have had to execute their game plan better than the other in the end. I believe if UNC is dominant on the defensive boards and doesn’t allow Virginia second-chance points, the ‘Hoos have been able to come by in almost every game, this will be a tough win for the ‘Hoos.
Prediction: Virginia 78, UNC 73
I believe Virginia will be limited on the offensive boards, but the ‘Hoos will shoot it well enough, and their much-improved defense will show up when needed. UVA in a close one.
