As we were all reminded earlier this season when the Mets seemingly had an abundance of starting pitching, you can never — EVER, EVER, EVER — have enough rotation inventory. These things tend to work themselves out, many times in ways that mean more work for David Stearns and his peers running the various baseball operations departments across the majors.
Which brings us to Zac Gallen, once an ace-level starter who is now struggling in a down year that also happens to be a contract year. The Arizona righty has an attractive pedigree — three top-10 finishes in the NL Cy Young voting, including third in 2023. But this season hasn’t been as sparkling as a free-agent-to-be would like.
If the Diamondbacks, who have so many attractive players on expiring contracts that they may have the biggest impact on what kind of trade deadline we see, make Gallen available, should New York try for him?
Let’s peek at the Pros and Cons of the Mets potentially making a deal for Gallen.
Pros
The Mets' rotation might be at its peak right now with Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga and Frankie Montas back from injuries. And even with those guys missing significant time, the Mets had the fourth-best rotation ERA (3.38) in baseball going into the All-Star break. But it’s a lesson in the fragility of pitching in that while that trio has come off the injured list, Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn have gone on it.
Plus, Met starters have a 5.16 ERA since June 13, the second-worst over that span.
Adding a starter of Gallen’s caliber would alleviate some concerns going forward, especially if there are more health issues looming. Only four teams get fewer innings per start than the Mets and an extra, talented arm could help. Clay Holmes’ workload likely will need to be managed going forward, and the Mets have sought a six-man contingent in the past, in part to help Senga.
And pumping a Cy-level starter through the Mets pitching program seems intriguing, no?
Gallen, who turns 30 on Aug. 3, does not have great numbers this year — more on that in the category below — but he recently had back-to-back wins over the Giants and Padres in which he allowed one earned run in 13 innings while allowing only 10 hits, walking one and striking out 19. In May, he overwhelmed the Mets in consecutive starts, giving up two runs and four hits in 13 innings.
That’s more like his old self.
And that is really, really good. In 2022, he went 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA and led MLB by allowing just 5.9 hits per nine innings. The next season, when he was third in the NL Cy vote, Gallen was 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, throwing 210 innings. He also won two playoff games in Arizona’s run to a National League pennant. He was 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA last year.
Going into this season, Gallen was on the cusp of a massive free-agent payday. He’s got a second half and – if he plays for a team that gets into the playoffs — an October to take advantage. That kind of carrot could make him an important deadline pickup.
Cons
At the break, Gallen, who was born in New Jersey and went to high school outside Philadelphia, was 7-10 with a 5.40 ERA in 20 starts. He’s already given up 21 home runs, one shy of his career worst, and his HR/9 (1.6) would be the worst of his career over a full season. His K/9 and hits per nine are at career-worst levels, too, and his BB/9 would be his worst since 2021.
He’s given up some loud contact — he’s already given up six homers on his knuckle-curve, the most in a single season. That pitch is generally the one he throws second-most to his four-seamer. There are bloated slugging percentages against some of his secondary offerings, including his slider and cutter, though the expected slug numbers against those are lower. And, Gallen has gotten good surface results despite loud contact in past seasons.
As always, beware of market inflation. Adding a big-name starter is a great way for a team to get its fan base torqued up for October and there’s always a league-wide need for pitching, so other contenders will be prowling around Gallen, despite his eh season. That could mean he’ll be prospect pricey, even in a down season.
Speaking of prospects, we’ve heard so much about the near-ready arms in the Mets' system. Does one of those provide the necessary rotation depth? Perhaps. There’s less big-league resume in that option, but it also doesn’t hurt the farm.
Verdict
Gallen is used to being part of intriguing trades – he went from the Cardinals to the Marlins with Sandy Alcantara in the five-player deal for Marcell Ozuna before the 2018 season and Miami swapped him to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the 2019 deadline.
Does it happen again now? Maybe. Arizona went into the break just 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. While they may sell, a lot of their players are the ones who took them to the Fall Classic not long ago. Do they believe a surge is coming? The trade market can’t wait to find out.
Taking a swing this big for pitching doesn’t exactly match Stearns’ track record since he took over the Mets' baseball operations. Stearns has added lesser names, some of whom, obviously, have soared. This one might be worth doing, especially with all the workload uncertainty in the Met rotation. Depth, something the Mets have preached throughout this season, has already been an enormous factor in their year.
And, if Arizona really wheels and deals, should the Mets attempt a major haul and try to add third baseman Eugenio Suarez to power up the lineup beyond the so-called “Fab Four?” The prospect huggers won’t like it, but maybe a shiny trophy would distract them.
