NFL teams always insist that they would never tank to get a better draft pick. But teams with a high draft pick on the line can and do choose to give plenty of playing time to inexperienced backups, and that’s exactly what the Raiders will do on Sunday, with the first pick in the draft on the line.
If the Raiders lose to the Chiefs, they will pick first overall in the 2026 NFL draft. Raiders coach Pete Carroll said he plans to give playing time to everyone on the active roster, including both backup quarterbacks, Aidan O’Connell and Kenny Pickett.
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“Everybody’s gonna play and I’m hoping it works out well,” Carroll said. “It doesn’t always, good plans don’t always come through, but we’ve got plans for these guys to get in there and get their playing time. Really excited to see them. Excited to see them play.”
Among the Raiders who won’t play are starting quarterback Geno Smith, and the Raiders’ two best players, defensive end Maxx Crosby and tight end Brock Bowers. They’re out with injuries, although Crosby has made clear that he wants to play through his knee injury and the Raiders shut him down against his will. If there’s one player on the team who would play to win in any game, it’s Crosby. But the Raiders won’t let him play.
As long as the draft is ordered by giving the highest pick to the team with the worst record, teams will be incentivized to lose. If the NFL wanted to, it could change the draft order in ways that would incentivize teams out of the playoff race continuing to win. For example, the non-playoff teams that ended the regular season with the longest winning streaks could get the highest picks. That would generate plenty of interest in Sunday’s Saints-Falcons game: Both teams are out of playoff contention, but the Saints are on a four-game winning streak and the Falcons are on a three-game winning streak. Reward teams with high picks if they keep playing hard after they’re out of the playoff race, and the NFL would both eliminate tanking and make Week 18 more exciting.
But as it stands, there’s much incentive to tank because the highest pick goes to the worst team. For his part, Carroll insists that his team is just bad, not intentionally bad.
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“I never even dreamed it would be like this,” Carroll said. “These guys will continue to work and they’ll stay with it. They don’t want to accept it. They want to only focus on the next opportunity that’s coming up.”
The Raiders have a big opportunity on Sunday, not to win on the field, but to win by losing.
