Rating every UFC champion’s chances of keeping their title in 2026

As another year of UFC action begins, fans’ attention is turning to the title fights that await in 2026.

At the time of writing, four title bouts are booked for this year, although only two for undisputed gold. Aside from Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje’s showdown for the interim lightweight belt, and Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira’s rematch for the “Baddest Motherf*****” strap, there are regular title fights at featherweight and women’s bantamweight.

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Kayla Harrison and Alexander Volkanovski are the defending champions in those divisions, with their title defences arriving in January and February respectively. So, what are their chances of remaining champions by the end of 2026?

And what of the other champions? Who may they even face before the year is up? Let’s speculate…

Women’s strawweight: Mackenzie Dern

Chances of remaining champion by the end of the year: 3/10. This may seem a harsh way to start out, but the rating says less about Dern and more about her surefire first challenger: the true 115lb queen, Zhang Weili. Dern picked up the vacant title in October by outpointing a disappointing Virna Jandiroba, after Zhang vacated the belt to move up in weight and challenge Valentina Shevchenko. After Zhang’s surprisingly one-sided loss to Shevchenko, the Chinese star will surely return to strawweight, where she is odds-on to become a three-time champion.

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Flyweight: Joshua Van

Chances: 5/10. Van won the belt in fortuitous fashion in December, as then-champion Alexandre Pantoja suffered a dislocated elbow not 30 seconds into their bout – in which Pantoja was the favourite. Furthermore, Pantoja would likely be the favourite in a rematch. Still, don’t count out Van, who didn’t get the chance to exhibit his impressive skillset against the Brazilian… but understand that the UFC’s youngest active title-holder faces a tricky path to a 2027 in which he’s still champion. Before a prospective rematch with the dominant Pantoja, the 24-year-old may even have to overcome Tatsuro Taira or Manel Kape – a stern test either way.

Women’s flyweight: Valentina Shevchenko

Chances: 9/10. Shevchenko’s title defence against Zhang was supposed to be her toughest challenge in years, but she utterly dominated with a grappling-heavy gameplan to retain her belt on points. With that test out of the way, it’s hard to see who can dethrone “Bullet”. Admittedly, Shevchenko’s first reign did end in an upset loss (to Alexa Grasso, who drew with the Kyrgyzstani then lost to her in their following two bouts), but at 37, Shevchenko still seems to be learning. So, it’s hard to see her falling in such fashion again.

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Bantamweight: Petr Yan

Chances: 6/10. This one may seem a bit low, but let us explain… When Yan kickstarted his second reign in December, by outpointing the dominant Merab Dvalishvili, he produced one of the great title-fight performances: a versatile showing in attack and defence, with which he avenged a past loss to the Georgian. It was a performance to suggest that Yan, like Shevchenko, is still getting better at 32. However, Dvalishvili will come back with a vengeance, and on another night, maybe he could beat Yan like he did before. Also, Umar Nurmagomedov, who will soon face Deiveson Figueiredo, is floating near the top of the rankings and would represent an interesting opponent for Yan. Then there is Sean O’Malley, who, if he overcomes Song Yadong, will likely get a crack at Yan, given his marketability and (admittedly controversial) 2022 win over the Russian. Yan will have to be sharp to leave 2026 with the belt.

Women’s bantamweight: Kayla Harrison

Chances: 8/10. In contrast to the last entry, maybe this seems high; certainly there will be those who think Harrison won’t even get to the end of January as champion. But as tantalising as her super-fight with ex-teammate and all-time great Amanda Nunes is, Harrison should have the edge. Nunes is 37 and hasn’t fought in two-and-a-half years, while Harrison, 35, has momentum and consistency in her favour. Yes, Nunes is on another level to the American’s past opponents, but Harrison herself marks one of Nunes’s tougher foes, and if she can overcome the Brazilian, Harrison should have a fairly easy time in the rest of 2026.

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Featherweight: Alexander Volkanovski

Chances: 7/10. Naturally, “Alexander The Great” will be the favourite in his January defence against Diego Lopes, given the Australian’s last outing was a unanimous-decision win against the Brazilian, but things may not be quite that simple. Yes, Volkanovski looked like the “Volk” of old in that fight, winning fairly comfortably on points, but: he was dropped by Lopes in one chaotic moment; he’s another year older at 37, while his challenger is just 31; and Volkanovski hasn’t had his desired activity this past year, whereas Lopes regained confidence with a stunning KO of the dangerous Jean Silva in September. Even if Volkanovski successfully navigates this rematch with Lopes, formidable foes like Lerone Murphy, Movsar Evloev and Aljamain Sterling await. Still, we’ll give the two-time champ the benefit of the doubt with a solid rating…

Lightweight: Ilia Topuria

Chances: 8/10. Another fighter we’re giving the benefit of the doubt, even though Topuria is in a “difficult moment” in his personal life that has seen him take a brief break from MMA, and even though you wouldn’t be shocked if he retained his lightweight title against a big name and then retired young – such has been the clinical, nonchalant manner of his career so far. When Topuria returns, likely in summer, he will surely defend the belt against the winner of January’s interim-title fight between Pimblett and Gaethje, and he’d be fancied to beat either. It’s conceivable that this would be his only bout of 2026, but even if he fought in November or December, the two-weight champ would be backed to stay unbeaten – and stay champion.

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Welterweight: Islam Makhachev

Chances: 9/10. Unless Makhachev gets old overnight, who can stop him? In 2025, the Russian ended his run as the most-successful lightweight champion in UFC history on his own terms, before looking better than ever as he ventured up to welterweight. Some viewed his shot at then-champion Jack Della Maddalena as close to a 50-50 fight, only for Makhachev to thrash the Aussie for five rounds. Welterweight is stacked, but so good is Makhachev, 34, that you can’t bet against him, regardless of whether he faces Kamaru Usman, Ian Machado Garry, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Carlos Prates or Michael Morales in 2026 – or more than one of them, even.

Middleweight: Khamzat Chimaev

Chances: 8/10. We almost gave Chimaev the same rating as Makhachev, such has been the middleweight champion’s dominance when he’s entered the Octagon. But Chimaev’s slightly-lower rating is down to his inconsistency in getting to the Octagon. Chimaev has battled health and travel issues during his unique UFC career, leading him to have only fought three times in the last three years. Still, those three bouts have brought three wins against former champions, including a jaw-shattering submission of Robert Whittaker in late 2024 and five-round domination of Dricus Du Plessis this August. Unless extraneous factors cost Chimaev the belt, which he took from “DDP”, he surely won’t lose it.

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Light-heavyweight: Alex Pereira

Chances: 7/10. Another score that might surprise some readers, given Pereira reclaimed his throne with stunning ease in October. Indeed, the Brazilian superstar knocked out rival Magomed Ankalaev in 80 seconds to regain the title at 205lb, and he has the ability to erase any opponent on any night, as he’s shown time and again. But “Poatan” is another champion past his physical prime, at 37, and therefore isn’t guaranteed to hold the gold all through 2026. That’s especially worth considering when Carlos Ulberg is awaiting a title shot – a challenger who might be able to emulate Ankalaev’s gameplan from a decision win against Pereira last March. Others will say Ankalaev faced an injured Pereira that night, and that Ulberg should be so lucky. Let’s wait and see.

Heavyweight: Tom Aspinall

Chances: 5/10. No, Indy Sport hasn’t given up on the idea that Aspinall will be the most-dominant heavyweight of his generation; this rating factors in the reality that his fighting future is up in the air courtesy of his eye issues. Aspinall’s first defence as undisputed champion ended abruptly in October, declared a No Contest after Ciryl Gane poked the Briton in the eyes multiple times and left Aspinall in need of two surgeries (that we know of). With one surgery down and one to go, Aspinall’s health in day-to-day life is the priority. That said, an interim bout between Gane and another contender could be booked soon, with Aspinall fighting the victor if he is healthy enough. If he is, we’d back him to win.