This story was excerpted from Ian Browne’s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
BOSTON – By the end of this week, the Dodgers or Blue Jays will be crowned World Series champions. While the end of the season is always jarring for all of us who love baseball, there’s a second season on deck, and it has just as much intrigue.
We speak, of course, of the Hot Stove season, which will start as soon as the World Series ends. While the Red Sox took a big step in 2025, ending a three-year postseason drought, they are looking to make a much deeper run in ‘26 and bring some playoff games back to Fenway Park.
Here is a primer for what is ahead in the offseason.
Which players are free agents?
Left-handers Steven Matz and Justin Wilson, right-hander Dustin May and outfielder Rob Refsnyder are all free agents.
Though shortstop Trevor Story had his first healthy season in years and finished with 25 homers and 96 RBIs, it seems unlikely he will opt out of the two years and $50 million still owed to him on the six-year, $140 million contract he signed to come to Boston before the 2022 season. Story’s leadership is key for the Red Sox, and it would become even more important if Bregman moves on.
Which players have mutual options?
Right-hander Lucas Giolito would have had a $14 million club option for next season that the Red Sox surely would have exercised, given his rebound season. But when he topped 140 innings, it turned into a $19 million option. Mutual options are hardly ever exercised by both parties. The best guess here is that Giolito elects free agency, though he did have a right elbow injury late in the season that kept him off Boston’s postseason roster.
Chalk this up as a union that didn’t work for either side. Veteran right-handed reliever Liam Hendriks was mostly rehabbing or injured in his two years with the club, and he was ineffective when he was on the mound. He will look for a new home.
Will the Red Sox extend a qualifying offer to anyone?
Bregman and Story aren’t eligible to receive qualifying offers because they received them in the past. The only possibility is Giolito. This year’s qualifying offer is $22.025 million. Cincinnati’s Nick Martinez was the only player in MLB who accepted a qualifying offer last season.
It wouldn’t be a complete stunner for Giolito to accept a QO because it is $3 million more than his mutual option. Given Giolito’s health status at the end of the season, the free-agent market might not be as robust as he wants it to be. By extending a qualifying offer to Giolito, the Red Sox would get Draft compensation should the veteran sign elsewhere. One more year in Boston could give Giolito more of a runway to build up his free-agent value.
Which players have a club option?
Outfielder Jarren Duran, who isn’t eligible for free agency until 2028, has an $8 million club option. The Red Sox seem all but certain to pick it up, even though he might end up being traded to alleviate the logjam in the outfield.
Who might be a non-tender candidate, and when does the club have to make that decision?
First baseman Nathaniel Lowe screams of a non-tender candidate. He earned $10.3 million last year through the arbitration process with the Rangers, and he got traded to the Nationals in December. The Red Sox signed him after Washington designated him for assignment in August. With first baseman Triston Casas due back from his left knee injury in 2026, and Boston potentially in the market for another corner bat, it’s doubtful Lowe fits in the club’s plans moving forward. The non-tender deadline is Nov. 21.
Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft?
The following prospects, with their club MLB Pipeline rankings in parentheses, must be added to avoid inclusion in the Rule 5 Draft, which is set for Dec. 10:
Sandlin and Bleis are all but sure to be protected. All teams must set their 40-man roster by Nov. 18.
What kind of help do they need and will they be active in free agency? Who might they target?
Expect the Red Sox to target a power bat and a No. 2 starter. Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Naylor, Bo Bichette, Eugenio Suárez and Marcell Ozuna are all bats who could fit nicely in Boston. Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Merrill Kelly are free-agent starters the Sox likely will at least inquire about.
Who might they be willing to trade?
Given that the Red Sox have the young, exciting trio of Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu in the outfield, Duran is a player they could package in a trade to fill another need. If the Twins make starter Joe Ryan available via trade, expect Boston to be aggressive.
