This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Cincinnati, which nabbed the final National League Wild Card spot with 83 wins, entered this offseason wanting very much to upgrade a lineup that as a whole, was below average in 2025. The offense posted a 90 OPS+, good for 26th in Major League Baseball. Their .706 OPS was tied for 19th overall. The .245 team batting average was also 19th. Despite playing home games at Great American Ball Park, the club was 21st with 167 home runs. The team leader was Elly De La Cruz, with only 22 homers.
There is still enough time to find someone. Spring Training opens just over a month from now when Reds pitchers and catchers report to camp in Goodyear, Ariz. on Feb. 9. Moves could still be made well into the Cactus League schedule as well.
But Cincinnati has not been connected to any of the top remaining free agents like Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman or former Reds favorite Eugenio Suárez.
As of today, the Reds will essentially be running out a very similar regular lineup to what they had last season.
Perhaps one that looks like this:
1. TJ Friedl, CF
2. Noelvi Marte, RF
3. Elly De La Cruz, SS
4. Spencer Steer, 1B
5. Sal Stewart, DH
6. JJ Bleday, LF
7. Tyler Stephenson, C
8. Matt McLain, 2B
9. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B
This lineup puts the onus on younger players like Marte and Stewart to provide some of the production that was missing last season. It’s banking that Marte will hit the ground running with the confidence he gained after his midseason switch from third base to right field. It also counts on Stewart, who led the club in September with five homers during his first month in the big leagues, to put together an even more robust full rookie season.
It would mean that De La Cruz would also have to level up his production after a second-half fade last season while he battled a left quadriceps strain. De La Cruz played all 162 games and perhaps wore down, something that manager Terry Francona planned on not repeating this season by giving his two-time All-Star more scheduled days off.
It also means believing that Steer, who overcame an early season funk while recovering from a sore right shoulder to hit 21 homers, will be even more productive with a fully healthy year. Finally, it comes with the hope that McLain will bounce back well from a rough 2025 now that he is two full years removed from the left shoulder surgery that cost him all of 2024. Then there is the one new face in Bleday, who signed a one-year, $1.4 million contract. The former A’s outfielder is coming off of a down year and is seeking his own rebound performance.
If more offense was needed in a game, this could be an option:
1. Friedl, CF
2. Marte, RF
3. De La Cruz, SS
4. Steer, LF
5. Stewart, 3B
6. Gavin Lux, 2B
7. Stephenson, C
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B
9. Bleday, DH
This lineup also makes the team worse, defensively, with Hayes and McLain missing and Steer not at first base. Something like this, of course, also means that Encarnacion-Strand makes the team out of camp. After his struggles the past two seasons, CES is far from a roster lock after being passed on the depth chart.
For a lineup focused on defense and run prevention, this might be an option:
1. Friedl, CF
2. Marte, RF
3. De La Cruz, SS
4. Steer, 1B
5. Stewart, DH
6. McLain, 2B
7. Dane Myers, LF
8. Jose Trevino, C
9. Hayes, 3B
Regardless of which lineup Francona writes out, there is one universal issue. According to FanGraphs’ current 2026 depth chart projections, there are only two positions where the Reds project to finish among the top 20 in position-player WAR: shortstop (4th) and center field (17th). They are in the bottom 10 at every other position right now, including DH, which is their worst spot (28th).
The Reds have built a deep rotation and a solid bullpen that could be among the best in the NL. But without adding another bat – either via trade or free agency – the front office would be taking a risk. Can their incumbent group of hitters raise their production numbers enough to get Cincinnati back into the playoffs in 2026?
We’ll know by the end of September.
