The football regular season (and National Signing Day) is complete, which means it is time to focus on college basketball — and the timing could not be better for fans of the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines. A legendary performance at the Players Era has Dusty May’s squad up to first-overall in Kenpom with Final Four dreams becoming more of an expectation than a stretch goal.
Early conference play has a distinct Big Ten East flavor this year, starting with a visit from the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Unlike the baffling upsets of No. 1 Purdue in both 2021-22 and 2022-23, the Knights were unable to strike gold a third time, getting stomped by the top-ranked Boilermakers at home on Tuesday. Michigan should do the same to them in Ann Arbor.
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Rutgers (5-4, 0-1) at No. 3 Michigan (7-0, 0-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, Dec. 6, 4 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
While Michigan swept the two-play last year, neither game was too comfortable. The Wolverines held the lead the entire second half in Piscataway but never really pulled away, winning by just three after a meaningless shot at the buzzer. Nimari Burnett’s buzzer beater was anything but meaningless in Ann Arbor, bailing out the Wolverines and avoiding the potential upset after Rutgers scored 57 in the first half.
Two Stats to Watch
Rutgers Shooting: 48.5% eFG (249th)
Everybody has — and for the most part, everybody will — struggled to shoot against Michigan both inside and out, and Saturday projects to be more of the same. Rutgers has really found life tough on the interior, ranking outside the top 300 in two-point shooting, and its accuracy is just 40.6% against its three High Major opponents (going just 1-2 at the Players Era). Now it gets to face the Wolverines, who are unrelenting in both shot quality and shot completion.
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There is no Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper on this team. Ostensibly the keys have been passed to Dylan Grant, a top-200 recruit who has gone from 5.9 PPG last season to 15.3 PPG so far on solid shooting numbers, but only one other player (Tariq Francis) is averaging double digits. The Knights do not take a ton of threes, though they do hit them at 35.5%; that might be their only path to even trying to keep it close.
Michigan Tempo: 16th (offensive possession length)
I would not expect the Wolverines to struggle scoring against a Rutgers defense ranked right around 100th, as both Tennessee and Purdue topped 1.2 PPP. Michigan has the size and talent to win in the halfcourt, but I bet May’s squad will continue finding plenty of success in transition as well. The Wolverines play fast, and though the Rutgers defense slows teams down, one side has the clear advantage here.
Should the Michigan defense force a bunch of stops, which is clearly the expectation, there will be five Wolverines sprinting down the court the other way. Whether that leads to feeding Aday Mara and Morez Johnson under the basket, kicking out to three-point shooters (who get to face a three-point defense ranked just 284th), or Yaxel Lendeborg simply assaulting the rim himself, Michigan’s pace is going to lead to a ton of quality looks.
