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Scouting report, score prediction for Missouri football home finale vs Mississippi State

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For the final time this season, Missouri football is taking to Faurot Field.

No. 24/RV Missouri football will play its home finale this upcoming Saturday in Columbia, where the Tigers will face a much-improved Mississippi State team as they look to right some recent shortcomings.

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Mizzou (6-3, 2-3 SEC) has lost three of its past four games and is now eliminated from the College Football Playoff race. The Tigers have failed to score more than 17 points in regulation in each of their last three games, and true freshman quarterback Matt Zollers is set to make his second start as a Tiger.

Mississippi State (5-5, 1-5) is one win away from bowl eligibility and picked up its first conference win of head coach Jeff Lebby’s tenure on Nov. 1 against Arkansas. This is the Bulldogs’ penultimate game of the regular season.

Can Mizzou get right and keep itself in the running for a double-digit win year?

Here is what you need to know about Mississippi State before the Bulldogs arrive in Columbia:

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Mississippi State also dealing with QB uncertainty, injury

Saturday may become an all-freshman affair at the quarterback position.

Zollers will be making his second start as a Tiger. On the other side, Mississippi State true freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor may be in line for his first start — although Taylor has played extensive reps in the Bulldogs’ past two games.

Shapen has left both of MSU’s past two games with injuries. He did not practice Monday, according to head coach Jeff Lebby in a report from the Clarion Ledger.

There’s a fascinating difference between Mississippi State’s quarterbacks. Shapen has been sacked 31 times on the 103 defensive pressures he has faced this season, giving him the second-worst pressure-to-sack ratio in the SEC. Taylor has taken zero sacks in his relief work.

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Shapen, a graduate student, has been solid for Mississippi State, throwing for 222.9 yards per game for 15 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.

But Taylor adds a dimension in the run game for the Bulldogs. In 34 rushing attempts this season, he has 200 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Shapen isn’t a statue, but he doesn’t quite have that athleticism.

STARKVILLE, MISSISSIPPI – NOVEMBER 08: Kamario Taylor #1 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs looks to pass during the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium on November 08, 2025 in Starkville, Mississippi. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

So, that means two game plans for Mizzou this week.

“We have a game plan for both of those guys,” Mizzou linebacker Khalil Jacobs said. “So it won’t matter who goes out there, we’ve just got to (play to our) standard and execute like we’re supposed to.”

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Can Tigers expose Mississippi State run defense?

Georgia scored 38 unanswered points en route to a 41-21 win over Mississippi State this past Saturday in Starkville. UGA got there with more than 300 yards on the ground.

The Bulldogs have struggled to defend the run this season, ranking 15th in the SEC with 176.2 rushing yards allowed per game.

That, on paper, bodes well for Mizzou.

Ahmad Hardy is the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,046 yards this season on 6.1 yards per carry. Jamal Roberts is in the top 10 for rushing yards in the SEC with 544 yards.

Mizzou ran the ball a remarkable 56 times for 204 yards and three touchdowns last season to beat Mississippi State 39-20 in Starkville.

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The game plan, especially as the Tigers try to find ways to help ease in Zollers, might look quite similar this year.

Balanced attack brings SEC’s leading receiver, 2 strong tailbacks

Nov 23, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (21) runs against the Missouri Tigers during the first quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-Imagn Images

Nov 23, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (21) runs against the Missouri Tigers during the first quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-Imagn Images

Mississippi State has been much more productive this season. The Bulldogs are a win away from bowl eligibility.

That is because they have a much more balanced attack at the skill positions.

Running backs Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth each have more than 500 rushing yards this season, and the by-committee backfield approach is working well.

Mississippi State also has the SEC’s leading receiver in Brenen Thompson, an Oklahoma transfer who has 808 yards and six touchdowns on the season. Fellow wideout Anthony Evans II ranks sixth in the SEC with 680 yards and four end-zone trips.

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The Bulldogs are likely to push the pace with an up-tempo offense, and they have the skill position players to catch Mizzou’s defense off guard if the Tigers aren’t careful.

“Just from watching a little (tape) yesterday, they’re kind of like a higher-speed, tempo-type offense. So, we need to overcome that,” MU defensive tackle Chris McClellan said. “Not so much the style of play from whoever the QB1 will be that day.”

Score prediction: Missouri 21, Mississippi State 13

Until proven otherwise, we’re going to assume Mizzou needs to find ways to win rock fights for the remainder of this year.

The Tigers have the quality to get through this game despite their recent offensive setbacks. The defense showed it was up for the fight against Texas A&M until it ran out of gas in the second half.

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More: Texas A&M officially dashed Missouri football’s CFP dream, but MU didn’t prove it belonged

More: What went wrong in Matt Zollers’ 1st start as Missouri QB? Here’s a full breakdown

If the Mizzou offense can find ways to sustain drives — and Mississippi State’s subpar run defense should let MU get a time-of-possession foothold — then the defense should be able to maintain that level of play for longer.

We’re backing the Tigers to bounce back here. Missouri has a lot to figure out from last week, but the quality is present to get across the line.

This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Score prediction, scouting report for Missouri vs Mississippi State

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