Not so long ago New Zealand was the envy of the rugby world. Successive Rugby World Cup crowns between 2011 to 2015 marked the golden age from arguably the greatest team in history. These days, though, New Zealand finds itself in a serious state of flux.
Scott Robertson’s unprecedented axing as All Blacks head coach stunned the rugby world. Few were aware of the scale of the brewing internal frustrations. Even those who were did not expect to witness such swift, bold action.
Robertson’s exit could benefit the All Blacks in time. It’s clear all was not well within that camp. In the short term, though, it raises questions over his appointment, and his inexperienced coaching team.
Two years out from the next World Cup in Australia it forces the All Blacks to search for a replacement mentor, with Dave Rennie and Jamie Joseph locked in a head-to-head battle to assume the consuming, demanding hot seat.
Parking the All Blacks for a moment explains how we got here.
New Zealand Rugby is experiencing seismic change among its leadership team.
One year ago, David Kirk’s appointment as chairman instigated the beginning of the new broom cleanout, with the 1987 World Cup winning All Blacks captain now assuming an all-powerful kingmaker role.
Mark Robinson finished his six-year tenure as NZ Rugby chief executive last December – he has since traversed to World Rugby as their chief of rugby. Had Robinson continued to lead NZ Rugby, Robertson would highly likely have retained his post.
Sweeping changes continue among high ranking and long serving NZ Rugby staff with former high performance boss Mike Anthony moving on, too.
Anthony worked within NZ Rugby for 15 years but will join English Premier League football side Brighton this month.
That leaves NZ Rugby without a permanent chief executive, with Steve Lancaster fulfilling that role on an interim basis at present, as well as no chief financial officer, chief commercial officer or head of high performance.
While the board must sign off all decisions, and the panel to interview and select the next All Blacks coach includes Keven Mealamu, Dane Coles and high performance expert Don Tricker, Rennie and Joseph must first win over Kirk to secure Robertson’s former post.
Kirk clearly expects the All Blacks to deliver more than Robertson’s 20 wins from 27 Tests (74% win rate) – as he noted by stating several times the desired trajectory was not where it needed to be for an organisation intent on globally selling the All Blacks brand of excellence for top dollar.
Rennie or Joseph will, therefore, arrive with eyes wide open. With Kirk signalling his intentions, there is no ambiguity surrounding expectations on the All Blacks.
The path forward is treacherous, though.
Joseph is beginning his second season leading the Highlanders – after the southerners finished with last year’s Super Rugby wooden spoon after three wins from 14 attempts.
Rennie is also ensconced in Kobe’s Japanese League One season that doesn’t conclude until late May.
The All Blacks begin this year with, on paper at least, a comparatively manageable start to the first Nations Championship. France will, unfortunately, again send a second-string side to New Zealand in July due to the ongoing clash with the Top 14 final.
The new All Blacks coach will also confront Italy and Ireland. On form, though, neither could be considered heavyweight threat status in the same vein as South Africa, England or a full-strength French side.
The looming tour of South Africa is, however, among the greatest tests any All Blacks side has faced in the professional era. Three Tests in the Republic, one money making venture in Baltimore of all places, and four games against South African URC teams promises to rattle the cage and stress depth of any elite team.
Assignments in world rugby don’t get more daunting than multiple matches against the world champions on home soil.
That scenario is partly, in my view, why Kirk and NZ Rugby acted so decisively to axe Robertson. An unhappy team with glaring on-field flaws could well be torn apart at the seams in ugly fashion in such a ruthless, hostile tour.
Joseph and Rennie will have little time to prepare for the South African proposition, but one suspects everything will be on the table, including a potential change of All Blacks captain and reshuffled coaching team.
Having shared a close working relationship at the Crusaders, Scott Barrett was always going to be Robertson’s man.
A new All Blacks coach, though, could view the leadership mantle through a decidedly different lens which brings Codie Taylor, Ardie Savea and Jordie Barrett’s into view.
Selection preferences may also change. Rennie cleaned out the Chiefs in his first year at the helm in 2012 with a focus on hard workers and those with character. The result was the Chiefs first Super Rugby title.
Joseph’s old school physical approach could also lend itself to a personnel shift.
SUPER RUGBY ROUND 1 PREVIEW: LINEUPS, TEAM NEWS, TIPS
CAN’T SWAP SIDES: SCHMIDT LOYAL TO WALLABIES
That’s not to suggest the All Blacks squad will be drastically overhauled but those with points to prove could force their way into the mix – and others will be looking over their shoulders with a sense they are on notice.
Super Rugby Pacific, therefore, takes on a different complexion with something of a clean slate dictating the need to perform to impress.
The players are largely there – the quest for the next All Blacks coach is to foster a much more inclusive, harmonious culture with a respected coaching structure, strategy and clear communication at its core. Addressing the consistent high ball issues, promoting the next generation of wings, and settling on a first-choice centre would help forge immediate gains.
NZ Rugby must quickly sort its house out, too. While it remains in a relatively stable financial position, particularly for such a small, isolated nation, Kirk can’t be left to run the show alone.
Change can prove positive progress but filling the series of high-powered vacancies with credible replacements is just as important to the wider health of the NZ game as selecting the next All Blacks coach.
