The non-conference schedule for the Syracuse Orange men’s basketball team is officially locked in for the upcoming year. With the full out of conference slate finalized, how do the stats and numbers project the path that lies ahead for the program?
To recap, Syracuse officially announced it will begin the 2025-26 season at home versus Binghamton. Eight of the Orange’s 13 non-con games will be in the JMA Wireless Dome. Those opponents are Delaware State, Monmouth, Tennessee for the ACC/SEC Challenge, Hofstra, Mercyhurst, Northeastern and Stonehill.
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The other five games left on the board are all neutral-site contests. No stretch is more important than at the end of November, where Syracuse will play four games in Nevada — one against St. Joe’s and another three as part of the Player’s Era Tournament. The Orange have games set against Houston and Kansas, with a TBD third opponent. Syracuse’s final non-con game is against Drexel at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.
As addressed previously, Syracuse was strategic in how it built its OOC schedule for 2025-26, who it chose to play and (equally as important) who it did *not chose. And with just 18 ACC games instead of 20, there was also more of an opportunity for the Orange to have extra control in the process. The broader trend that manifests: Syracuse will have multiple opportunities for a signature Q1 win before ACC play starts, but it also largely cut out teams projected to be in the middle of the notable metric rankings, scheduling “more favorable” opponents.
For example, take Bart Torvik. At a bare minimum, three of Syracuse’s 13 non-con games are against teams Bart Torvik believes is ranked in the top-25, including first-place Houston as well as No. 13 Tennessee and No. 17 Kansas. There is a highly likely chance Syracuse’s third opponent in the Player’s Era Tournament will be a Power 4 opponent, like Rutgers, Gonzaga or Maryland, just based on the teams and the current matchups.
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On the flip side, over half (seven) of the non-con games for the Orange are against teams Bart Torvik has ranked outside the top-200. That includes four games versus opponents outside the top-300 — Stonehill (No. 319), Binghamton (No. 332), Delaware State (No. 337) and Mercyhurst (No. 362). Of those seven games, six are true home games (the exception being playing Drexel in Philly).
That leaves two opponents left — St. Joe’s in Las Vegas and Monmouth at home, each of whom are ranked between No. 100 and No. 200 in Bart Torvik.
Using the NET quadrant system but with Bart Torvik’s numbers, here is what the schedule looks like:
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Delaware State (home): Q4
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Drexel (neutral-site): Q4
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St. Joe’s (neutral-site): Q2
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Houston (neutral-site): Q1
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Kansas (neutral-site): Q1
Again, it’s a similar trend as earlier. Assuming St. Joe’s stays at or above No. 100 in the NET, every other non-con opponent is either a Q1 (three) or Q4 (eight). The final opponent from the Player’s Era Tournament will likely be a Q1, or at the very least, a Q2.
Essentially, Syracuse’s non-con schedule and how it could do against it comes down to two questions.
The first: can the Orange eek out one win against one of those elite teams? Syracuse is guaranteed three games against teams strongly favored to make the NCAA Tournament. ESPN’s latest bracketology update has Houston as a one-seed, Tennessee as a three-seed and Kansas as a five-seed. Again, there could very well be a fourth depending on how things shake out in Las Vegas.
November will be a pivotal month for Syracuse’s season. Four straight games out West (three for this tournament), then a few days off before facing Tennessee at home. A best-case scenario is getting two of the four between Houston, Kansas, Tennessee and PET opponent TBD. Winning at least one will be big for the tournament resume; coming away totally empty means likely would have to make up some extra ground with high-upside ACC wins.
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The other notable question is, of course, since the OOC schedule for Syracuse is so Q4 heavy, can it actually capitalize on that and appear favorable in the NET rankings with sizable margins of victory.
