BYU opened up its most anticipated season in program history with a 71-66 win over Villanova in Las Vegas. The Wildcats are breaking in nearly an entire new roster after hiring Kevin Willard from Maryland, but this was a solid way to open the season and should be a Quad one or Quad two win come March.
Below are some of my thoughts coming out of the game. This comes with the caveat that it’s the first week of November and I’m not making any sweeping generalizations.
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Thoughts and Observations
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BYU’s defense looked better and played well in key moments. Defense is likely the top thing that will determine if the BYU team can make a final four run. The offense bogged down for stretches, but I’m not too concerned about the scoring long-term — BYU has too many good players and Kevin Young is one of the best offensive minds in the world. Not all my questions were answered about the defense. Frankly, I don’t think Villanova is a tournament team and they don’t have a ton of guys that really scare you. However, I saw real improvement from what we saw last year. BYU got cooked by Providence last year in a 83-64 loss by a team that I don’t think is better than Villanova. AJ Dybantsa, Kennard Davis, and Khadim Mboup give BYU some real athleticism and length that will give opposing teams problems. Villanova had several possessions where they got stonewalled on their drives and had to kick out for low percentage threes. There will be games where opposing teams hit more threes, but BYU has some dudes who athletically are just a tier above what we had last year. BYU will need to show they can slow down dynamic guards — Villanova’s Bryce Lindsay is a solid guard and torched BYU in the second half — but the pieces are there for BYU to be better defensively. The most encouraging thing to me as that BYU’s defense came through in big moments. After Villanova went ahead 59-57 with under 7 minutes left, BYU went on a 10-0 run and held the Wildcats scoreless for nearly 5 minutes and 8 straight possessions to seal the win. BYU won’t be able to stop good teams from putting up points, but if they can play their best in key moments then that is what can carry them in big games.
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The inputs for this offense will lead to better outputs. The outputs for this offense weren’t the best, and give some credit to Villanova for that. They slowed the game down and forced it to be at their tempo, which limited BYU’s transition opportunities. BYU shot less than 40% from the floor and 5-15 from three — that’s not BYU’s recipe to sustained success. BYU also missed a ton of shots at the rim and was 14-21 from the foul line. Despite some of the outputs not being great, there is a lot to be excited about with this offense. First, BYU had just four turnovers. That is an astonishingly low number. BYU may not have a number that low again, but I don’t think they will be very turnover prone this year. They had just 12 turnovers in the exhibition win over UNC, which is a low number for a fast-paced game. It’s not rocket science, but limiting turnovers creates additional shot attempts for BYU and limits easy transition opportunities for the other team. Kevin Young is one of the best offensive minds in the world and BYU has arguably the best “big three” in college basketball with AJ, Rob Wright, and Richie Saunders. Rob Wright missed a ton of shots at the rim, but he got to the paint at will. He had several games in Big 12 play last year where he converted many of those shots he missed tonight. BYU will be one of the best offensive teams in the nation if they limit turnovers and get to the paint like they did. Those are sustainable traits and will lead to better shot quality as the season goes along.
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BYU’s shooting remains a question mark, but there are reasons for improvement. BYU’s three-point shooting was one of my biggest questions marks for the season. We know Richie Saunders is an elite shooter, but BYU doesn’t have many other guys you can consistently count on from the outside. AJ Dybantsa can hit the three ball, but he’s not going to be a high volume guy most nights and will rely on getting to the rim. Rob Wright shot less than 30% from three in Big 12 play last year. Kennard Davis showed promise with two threes last night. BYU doesn’t need to be a top three-point shooting for this offense to be great since AJ and Rob are so good at getting to them rim, but they will need to be at least above average so teams don’t just clog the paint. There are signs BYU will get better. Richie Saunders came down with the flu Sunday evening and was vomiting all day Monday leading up to the game. He still played 29 minutes and scored 15 points. Richie is one of the best shooters in college basketball and he’ll be great this year — I’m not worried about him. Dawson Baker missed a lot of the offseason with a foot surgery and is working his way back from that. Dawson shot 38% from three last year and was 1-2 in the opener. As he gets his legs back under him he will be a key piece off the bench. Idaho transfer Tyler Mrus is another guy BYU brought in to make shots. The 6-foot-7 wing shot 38% from three last year on nearly 200 attempts. He has been banged up the last couple weeks and is on a minutes restriction to start the year. As he starts to get more acclimated, he’s another guy BYU will count on to space the floor. So while I have some questions about BYU’s shooting, there are signs that this will improve soon and be a relative strength for BYU.
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Keba Keita is one of the most valuable big men in the country. Keba Keita left off where he did the last two months of last season, swatting shots and anchoring the back line of BYU’s defense. AJ got the headlines, but much of the college basketball world got to see how dynamic Keba is. Keba is incredibly valuable for this BYU team because of his obvious contributions, but also because of what’s behind him. The three candidates to be the backup five are Mihailo Boskovic, Xavion Staton, and Khadim Mboup. Mboup will be one of BYU’s top players off the bench and can play the five, but he is best if he can play the four or three and impact the game as a help side defender rather than the primary rim protector. Staton improved over the course of the offseason, but I think in many of BYU’s top matchups he will be overwhelmed physically and with the speed of the game. Boskovic had three assists and did a better job rebounding, but his shooting is inconsistent. He is probably BYU’s best bet to get the majority of the minutes behind Keba, especially if he can rebound like he did last night. When he’s knocking down shots, he is an x-factor for this team as a stretch five. Keba played just 24 minutes last night, but BYU will look to get 30 minutes from him most nights as long as he stays out of foul trouble.
