This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. — Believe it or not, the Rays ended last season thinking it could be a relatively quiet offseason. President of baseball operations Erik Neander had said as much, and he recently came across early offseason notes on his laptop that reflected his thinking.
Instead, the offseason turned out to be anything but boring.
Let’s try to summarize why in one sentence. The Rays executed a significant roster overhaul and changed the complexion of their team amid a change in ownership ahead of their return to a repaired Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg while their new leadership works to secure a long-term ballpark in Tampa.
Welcome to Spring Training. Things are a little different around here.
There will be plenty of talk about the big-picture developments. The Rays are thrilled about their anticipated return to the Trop in two months. It will be impossible to ignore the implications of their pursuit of a new stadium on the site of Hillsborough College’s Dale Mabry campus.
But after walking around the back fields of Charlotte Sports Park on a picture-perfect Thursday morning, and spending a little time inside the home clubhouse beyond right field, what stands out most is just how much the roster has changed.
“There’s a lot to be excited about. We’ve got to get on the field and do it, but feel good with the guys that we have,” manager Kevin Cash said. “It’s refreshed energy coming in. You miss the guys that are not going to be here, but there’s a lot of new faces, a lot of new handshakes, a lot of new relationships to build. And I think everybody’s pretty excited by that.”
Gone are familiar faces Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Pete Fairbanks, Shane Baz and Jake Mangum. In come veterans Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley, Gavin Lux, Nick Martinez and Steven Matz and young contributors like Ben Williamson and Jacob Melton.
Of the 29 pitchers who appeared in a game for Tampa Bay last year, 16 remain in the organization. Of the 27 hitters who played for the Rays at some point last season, only 10 are in camp this year.
They made several significant trades during this winter of change, including a trio of three-team transactions, that mostly served to add younger, future-focused talent to the organization. They also guaranteed $38 million in free-agent deals meant to keep this year’s team competitive.
Where did all that maneuvering leave them as they began their spring workouts on Thursday?
It all starts, as usual, with their pitching. They have a talented rotation in Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Martinez and Matz, with depth behind them in Joe Boyle, Ian Seymour and others.
With Fairbanks in Miami, they will function without a traditional closer but believe that group — led by Griffin Jax, Edwin Uceta, Garrett Cleavinger and Bryan Baker — is more than capable of handling the assignment.
Their offense is anchored by “three offensive studs,” as Neander put it: third baseman Junior Caminero, first baseman Jonathan Aranda and DH Yandy Díaz. There are plenty of questions about the rest of the lineup, a mix of young players and bounce-back candidates, but Neander sold it as a group featuring “dynamic athletes and really good defense.”
“When our teams haven’t been given a lot of optimism out of the gates, that’s usually the recipe that tends to surprise,” Neander said. “We’re going to do everything we can to support this group to make that happen.”
Most preseason predictions have the Rays finishing last in an almost laughably loaded American League East. The analytical models aren’t sold, either. FanGraphs has the Rays set for about 78 wins, last in the division, with a 22% chance to reach the postseason. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have Tampa Bay as a roughly .500 team again, with a 29.8% chance to reach the postseason for the first time since 2023.
They understand it, of course, but they didn’t come to Spring Training with 29.8% of optimism.
“The Yankees went out and spent money. Toronto went out and spent a bunch of money. Baltimore went huge. Boston made some big trades. And we quietly did our thing,” Pepiot said. “We have full trust in Erik and his staff and Cash to get everybody right. We’re just gonna go out there and we’re gonna play our game. We’re gonna go pitch, we’re gonna go play defense, and we’re gonna have timely hitting.
“We’ve got some All-Stars that are coming back that are young, and we’ve got some power in the offense, and we’re back in our home ballpark. So I think there’s a lot of excitement to have with that, and with the [lower] expectations, we can really go out there and just kind of shock some people.”
