It was during the opening minute of the UNC-Syracuse game that the thought first crossed my mind: it seems like the Heels rarely win the opening tip. The Orange’s William Kyle III had just won the tip against Henri Veesaar, although Syracuse missed their opening jumper and UNC corralled the rebound. Still, it felt to me that Carolina almost always ended up starting the game on defense in the 2025-2026 season.
The Heels would subsequently go on to lose the opening tipoffs to Miami and Duke. I decided to go back and see if my hunch was correct or if it was simply a matter of selective memory. In this case, it turned out to be the former; UNC has not won the opening tip very often this season. Carolina has only controlled the opening tipoff seven times out of 24 games played, while their opponent has won the jump ball 17 times. Put a different way, UNC has only won the opening tipoff roughly 29% of the time.
Advertisement
This seems surprising for a couple reasons; for one, UNC boasts one of the tallest frontcourts in the country, with seven-foot big man Henri Veesaar taking most of the Heels’ tips. It’s also worth noting that this discrepancy exists despite having a non-conference schedule that featured several teams that UNC should have a wide talent and athletic advantage over. Out of curiosity, I went back and checked how UNC did in opening tipoffs last season; it turns out the Heels were pretty average, winning the tip in 17 out of 37 games (just under 46% of the time). Of course, last year’s team and this year’s squads are completely different; but I thought it was interesting considering last year’s team was often noted for its lack of height and, to a lesser extent, athleticism.
Ultimately, this isn’t a big deal (I’ll note I started writing this post before the Caleb Wilson news broke, which suddenly made this seem even less important). According to KenPom, there’s some evidence that winning the opening tip against a similarly rated team might give that team a very slight advantage since they could theoretically gain an extra possession; this is more pronounced in games that feature fewer possessions. That being said, I think most UNC fans will agree that opening tip woes (assuming this isn’t just a statistical anomaly) probably doesn’t rank inside the top ten issues facing this team. Still, I’ll be keeping an eye on UNC’s opening tipoffs the rest of the season to see if the Heels stay around that 29% rate or if they improve. Carolina will need every edge they can find as they navigate the absence of Caleb Wilson.
