Just when the talk of a Skubal trade — a topic that dominated headlines earlier in the offseason — appeared to have settled down, might last week’s events cause the Tigers to reassess the idea of trading the two-time defending American League Cy Young Award winner?
“I don’t think it changes much,” an AL executive said. “I suppose if they lose, it might limit what else they can do financially. But I doubt they would act on that alone.”
Skubal is entering his final year of club control, set to become a free agent next offseason. Fresh off a pair of Cy Young seasons, the 29-year-old is primed to cash in with a huge contract next winter, with many projecting him to land the biggest contract for any pitcher in history.
That record currently belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose 12-year, $325 million contract ($27.1 million average annual value) with the Dodgers is the largest guarantee for any pitcher. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander hold the record for average annual value at $43.3 million, which they received in shorter-term deals with the Mets in 2022 and 2023. Zack Wheeler is the only other pitcher to earn an AAV over $40 million, signing a three-year, $126 million extension with the Phillies that began in 2025.
In terms of deals for more than five years, the top AAV in pitching history belongs to Gerrit Cole, who inked a nine-year, $324 million pact ($36 million AAV) with the Yankees in December 2019. Skubal — who is in a tier of his own among next winter’s free agents — is likely to shatter that. (At the moment, the next best pitchers set to be free agents next winter are Kevin Gausman, Freddy Peralta and Chris Sale, while the best position player is arguably Jazz Chisholm Jr. or Randy Arozarena.)
Skubal filed a record arbitration figure of $32 million, while the Tigers countered with a salary of $19 million. Trading Skubal prior to his hearing — which will take place sometime between Jan. 26 and Feb. 13 — would be difficult, as most teams would likely want to know what the financial commitment will be for 2026 before trading for the ace.
“I think a team would want him to get through the arbitration process and see how much the salary is before making a trade,” a National League executive said.
“With the risk of $32 million a year, there could be some clubs that can’t afford him, although I would guess most teams in for about $20 million would find the space,” an AL executive said. “Trading him pre-hearing would be awkward since the new club would go to a [hearing] with a guy they just acquired.”
There is recent precedent for a trade of this ilk, and it involves the Dodgers, a team that is always part of the rumor mill when a star player is involved. Back in February 2020, they acquired Mookie Betts as he entered his final year prior to free agency. Betts, who had settled on a $27 million deal with the Red Sox a few weeks before the trade, signed a 12-year, $365 million extension with Los Angeles that July, locking him in with the Dodgers before he ever hit the open market.
Unlike Skubal, however, Betts was not represented by agent Scott Boras, who rarely negotiates huge extensions for his star clients when they’re this close to free agency. With an extension seemingly unlikely, the Tigers have three options regarding Skubal:
• Keep him, play out the 2026 season and take their shot at free agency. In this scenario, they would extend a qualifying offer and receive Draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.
• Trade him prior to the season, which would allow an acquiring team to extend a qualifying offer at the end of the year and recoup Draft compensation if he leaves.
• Trade him this summer (presumably only if they fall out of contention), when contending teams may be willing to pay more despite the inability to make him a qualifying offer.
Although the exact number Skubal will be seeking in free agency remains to be seen, the Tigers likely have an idea of whether they believe they can make a legitimate run at re-signing him or not. If they don’t think they can, then trading him could make sense to bring back a haul of prospects or Major League-ready players rather than compensatory Draft picks.
Trading Skubal prior to the season would bring some closure to the situation, though it would surely weaken Detroit in its effort to return to the postseason for a third straight year. A preseason deal would give the Tigers a wider group of potential suitors than at the Trade Deadline, when only contending teams would be likely to pay a steep price for two-plus months of Skubal’s services.
The risk of waiting until summer to trade Skubal, of course, would be the Tigers finding themselves in the midst of their own postseason race, which would present president of baseball operations Scott Harris with a difficult decision: Does he try to make a run at October or maximize the return for Skubal?
The arbitration exchange may have introduced a new wrinkle into the Skubal saga, but the consensus within the industry is that Detroit will keep its ace and reassess the situation as the season progresses.
“I think the uncertainty only makes it less likely that they move him,” an NL executive said.
