On the heels of Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai agreeing to a deal with the Astros, we asked MLB Insider Mark Feinsand to break down what it means for the rest of the free-agent market.
What are some teams that may have been in the running for Imai and now will have to turn their attention elsewhere?
A number of clubs were interested in Imai to varying degrees, but the Cubs seem to have been the most aggressive suitor after the Astros. That doesn’t mean Chicago will now pivot to one of the other top free-agent starters, as Ranger Suárez and Framber Valdez figure to cost significantly more than Imai — who will earn between $18 million and 21 million in each of the next three seasons depending on performance bonuses and can opt out after 2026 and 2027.
Zac Gallen might be a better fit if the Cubs are intent on adding to the rotation, while Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt and Zack Littell also remain available in free agency.
It seemed as though the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees were never really in on Imai, which came as a surprise to many. Why do you think that was?
For the Dodgers and Yankees, the need to spend on a starting pitcher simply doesn’t exist. The Dodgers boast a rotation featuring Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki, while the Yankees have Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, and a combination of Will Warren/Clarke Schmidt/Luis Gil/Ryan Yarbrough to hold the fort until both Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón return from injury early in the season.
The Mets still need starting pitching, but sources said the club wasn’t sold on Imai as an impact starter. President of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from signing pitchers for more than three years, which would have made Imai an ideal target had he felt strongly about his ability to make a successful move to the Majors. The top starters out there — namely Valdez and Suárez — are likely to command longer-term deals, so it remains to be seen whether Stearns will go all-in for one of them or look elsewhere, possibly the trade market.
How does the Imai deal affect the markets for the likes of Valdez, Suárez and Gallen?
Aside from taking the Astros out of the mix — and I don’t believe Houston was truly in that mix for any of them — the Imai deal shouldn’t have a huge impact on any of those three starting pitchers. If anything, it only cements the idea that a return to Houston is no longer in the cards for Valdez, who was expected to sign with a new team, anyway.
The clubs that have been looking for pitching are still doing so. Because Imai is an unknown quantity coming over from Japan, I don’t believe the terms of his deal will change any of the current asking prices — especially when you consider the deals signed already this winter by Dylan Cease (7 years, $210 million with the Blue Jays) and Michael King (3 years, $75 million with the Padres).
What could be next for the Astros after landing Imai?
Houston’s heavy lifting is done for the offseason, as the Astros have now added four potential starting pitchers — Imai, Mike Burrows, Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss — to give them a number of options in the back half of the rotation.
The Astros’ two remaining needs are backup catcher and bullpen, so expect GM Dana Brown to look to add in those two areas in the coming weeks.
With Imai and Munetaka Murakami off the board, there are still two big NPB names left: Kazuma Okamoto and Kona Takahashi. Both players have a signing deadline of 5 p.m. ET on Sunday. What’s the latest on them?
Okamoto, a power-hitting corner infielder and six-time NPB All-Star, was holding meetings in Los Angeles late last month with potential suitors and his agent, Scott Boras.
The Pirates, Red Sox, Padres, Mariners and Angels have all been connected to Okamoto, who is considered a better defender than the younger Murakami. He could realistically play first or third base in the Majors, giving him a wider range of clubs to consider.
Takahashi presents a more interesting situation. According to a source, he has at least one Major League offer on the table, but it may not be enough to land the 28-year-old right-hander. Takahashi produced excellent seasons in 2022 and 2023, posting ERAs of 2.20 and 2.21, respectively, though he took a step back in 2024 (4.01 ERA) before pitching to a 3.04 ERA in 2025.
Like Imai, Takahashi was posted by the Seibu Lions, who face the loss of their two best pitchers if both make a move to the Majors. With Imai heading to Houston, Takahashi could decide to return to Japan on a new deal with Seibu, one with opt-out clauses that would allow him to return to the market next year as an unrestricted free agent rather than part of the posting system. Barring a late offer by a bigger big league club, that could be the most realistic scenario for the right-hander, who would have significantly more value a year from now if he has a strong season in 2026.
