Watching a team with a clear identity and no question marks certainly has its perks, but there’s also beauty in following an unproven group with a blank canvas and lower expectations.
Anyone who claims to know exactly how this Celtics season will unfold is either lying or a basketball genius. At the same time, it’s fun to guess what will happen. If I’m right, I can reference this article and say I told you so; if I’m wrong, you can reference this article and say you told me so (or we can collectively agree to pretend it never happened).
With that in mind, here are ten statistical predictions that are 100 percent guaranteed to either be right or wrong.
1. Payton Pritchard will average five-plus assists.
Payton Pritchard has increased his assist total each of the past two seasons, including a career-high 3.5 per game last year.
There’s reason to believe that number will continue to improve, and I have a hunch he’ll be able to push it above five per game this year. Pritchard gets a lot of love for his shotmaking (for good reason), but he’s also an excellent passer. With even more opportunity, he’ll be able to showcase that part of his game on a consistent basis.
2. Jaylen Brown will finish top-five in the league in scoring.
It’s easy to forget, but Jaylen Brown averaged 26.6 points per game in the 2022-23 season. That number fell to 23 two years ago and 22.2 last year.
Even with more attention on him, Brown should be able to boost that total this year. His volume will almost certainly go up, which could lead to some 40-plus-point performances. Jayson Tatum finished fifth in the league in scoring last year at 26.8 points per game, and there’s reason to believe Brown will be in that ballpark and crack the top five this year.
3. The Celtics won’t lead the league in 3-pointers made or attempted.
Last year, the Celtics led the NBA in both 3-pointers made (17.8 per game) and attempted (48.2 per game). This season, while they’ll still be near the top of both categories, they won’t lead the league in either.
The loss to the Knicks last year was a not-so-subtle reminder that offenses need to be versatile and multi-dimensional. This year, there will be an emphasis on expanding their arsenal and ensuring they can score in many ways.
4. Anfernee Simons will be the Celtics’ second-leading scorer.
It could be Derrick White or Pritchard, but I believe newcomer Anfernee Simons will finish second on the team in scoring this season. He’s not a perfect player, but I don’t think the majority of Celtics fans realize just how dynamic he is with the ball in his hands.
He’s averaged 17-plus each of the past four seasons, including 22.6 two years ago. Simons is a creative shot-maker, and with Brown, Pritchard and White by his side, defenses won’t be able to double him frequently.
5. Derrick White finishes top-30 in both steals and blocks.
White has a chance to make an All-Defense Team this year. Last year, he averaged 1.1 blocks and 0.9 steals and was just outside the top 30 in both categories. This year, those numbers increase slightly to 1.3 blocks and 1.1 steals, and he gets in for each.
6. Neemias Queta plays 20-plus minutes a night.
The opportunity is there for Neemias Queta, and I believe he’ll maximize it. He averaged 13.9 minutes per game a season ago, and I expect that number to go to 20-plus this year.
Even if the Celtics rotate many players in and out, Queta has established himself as someone head coach Joe Mazzulla can really trust.
7. Boston finishes in the bottom-10 in rebounds per game.
Queta helps, and Luka Garza and Chris Boucher will do their part as well, but this team just isn’t equipped to be consistent on the boards. It will be more glaring in some games than others, but overall, rebounding will be a weakness.
8. They have both a five-game winning streak and five-game losing streak along the way.
This feels like it’s going to be an up-and-down season. It won’t always be rosy, and it won’t always be bleak, but it may be both at certain times. Ebbs and flows are inevitable, but I believe this team may be more susceptible to swings than the average group.
9. Jayson Tatum will play at least one game.
If the Celtics are in contention, and Jayson Tatum keeps progressing like he has, there’s a chance he’ll end up returning to action this year. If the Celtics sneak into the playoffs and get him back for the postseason run, it could be straight-up electric.
10. The Celtics finish 44-38 and get the 6-seed.
I, for one, can’t wait to see how this season plays out. This team will be better than people think, and if Tatum does return, anything is possible.
