The Tennessee Volunteers look to rebound and keep their playoff hopes alive as they travel to Lexington on Saturday night to face the Kentucky Wildcats.
The Wildcats almost got an upset win over Texas last week, but their two-year wait for an SEC home victory goes on. After losing to Alabama, the Vols know they need to win out to keep their resume worthy of a spot in the postseason.
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Our Tennessee vs. Kentucky predictions and college football picks explain why the Vols will avoid a slip-up on Saturday night.
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Tennessee vs Kentucky prediction
Tennessee vs Kentucky best bet: Tennessee -8.5 (-105)
I don’t expect the Kentucky Wildcats to do well in this game. Texas was a good matchup for the Wildcats — a team that isn’t strong offensively, won’t take many risks, and doesn’t mind a smash-mouth, defensive kind of game.
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That’s not what the Tennessee Volunteers bring to the table. The Vols want to go up-tempo, hit big plays through the air, and score lots of points — and it’s worked this season. Penalties and Alabama’s efficient offense were too much to overcome last week, but the Tide also scored 37 points and made the Vols one-dimensional.
Kentucky can’t score like that. In fact, the Wildcats have yet to score more than two touchdowns against a power conference opponent since offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan took over last season. That means the Wildcats are likely going to fall behind fairly early and will be forced to throw more than they’d like.
That’s especially true given the running back situation. Seth McGowan is a game-time decision, after going to the hospital — and returning to the game later on — against the Longhorns. Even if he can go, he won’t be at 100%. Meanwhile, backup Dante Dowdell has rushed for just 60 yards on 31 carries in his last three SEC games.
The Wildcats rank 98th in EPA/rush, 110th in EPA/dropback, 102nd in quality drive rate, and 110th in early down EPA. They’re also ranked 107th in late-down success. Combine those factors, and it’s easy to see why they rank 101st in available yards gained.
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Tennessee’s defense has given up big plays this year, but this Kentucky offense isn’t going to be able to take advantage enough to keep this close. The Vols rank fourth in sacks per game against FBS opponents, and they’ll get to Boley enough to keep their playoff hopes alive with a convincing win.
Tennessee vs Kentucky same-game parlay
If Kentucky is forced to throw more often, Boley will need a safety valve against the Tennessee pass rush. Enter tight end Willie Rodriguez, who’s averaging 15.2 yards a catch despite having just 12 receptions through six games.
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Rodriguez can get yards after the catch, and he had six targets last week against Texas. He’s gained at least 28 yards in five games and has a strong chance to hit this floor given Boley’s higher volume, especially against a Tennessee defense that’s allowed tight ends to have solid outings.
Miles Kitselman has been a consistent target for Joey Aguilar, with at least six targets in all but one game. He’s caught 5+ passes in six of seven contests, and with an average depth of target of 13.5 yards, this is a fairly low floor to reach.
Tennessee vs Kentucky SGP
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Willie Rodriguez Over 25.5 receiving yards
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Miles Kitselman Over 33.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Victory for the Vols
Kentucky likes to drop into a soft shell zone in the red zone on passing downs, often with eight defenders and no spy. Given the lack of pass rush for the Wildcats, this often leads to quarterbacks having a good opportunity to scramble.
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Gunner Stockton rushed for Georgia’s first two scores in this very type of situation, and the Wildcats have allowed rushing touchdowns by quarterbacks in four of their six games. Stockton, LaNorris Sellers, and Austin Simmons combined for 173 rushing yards on 28 carries in Kentucky’s first three SEC contests, and Aguilar’s scrambling ability makes him a strong option to run one in.
Tennessee vs Kentucky SGP
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Willie Rodriguez Over 25.5 receiving yards
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Miles Kitselman Over 33.5 receiving yards
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Joey Aguilar anytime touchdown
Tennessee vs Kentucky odds
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Spread: Tennessee -8.5 | Kentucky +8.5
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Moneyline: Tennessee -300 | Kentucky +250
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Over/Under: Over 54.5 | Under 54.5
Tennessee vs Kentucky trend to know
Tennessee has gone Over its team total in five of its last seven games for +2.70 units and a 34% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Kentucky.
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How to watch Tennessee vs Kentucky
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Location |
Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
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Date |
Saturday, October 25, 2025 |
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Kickoff |
7:45 p.m. ET |
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TV |
SECN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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