THB Staff Basketball Crystal Ball

What will UNC’s men’s basketball season look like? We’ve argued all off-season about it. Now it’s prediction time.

The roster has turned over almost completely. UNC men’s basketball doesn’t go into the season with quite the same number of questions as the football team did, but it’s close. Seth Trimble’s a significant known quantity, but that’s it. I’d like to say the same about Hubert Davis, but segments of UNC’s fan base over the years have found ways to argue for the dismissal of Dean Smith (“Game’s passed Dean by!”) and Roy Williams (“Fire Roy!”). That just comes with the territory of UNC men’s head basketball coach. So even Davis, entering year five, remains a point of dissension for many UNC fans. Certainly no consensus of opinion exists.

We polled 12 categories, six speculating on individual performances and six projecting team performance. We’ll look at the results in threes. Peruse at your leisure, and then let us know your own thoughts in the comments below.

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Individual Performance

Team MVP: Unsurprisingly, the team’s three best players divided all the Team MVP votes. Caleb Wilson ran away with the most. His recruiting accolades, practice reports, and stellar showing against BYU and AJ Dybantsa have Tar Heel fans and this staff hyped. Teammates and Davis cite Wilson’s selflessness over and over, so the voting doesn’t reflect an expectation that Wilson will want to dominate his own team in usage and limelight. Wilson clearly wants to dominate the opponent and seems to understand that’s a five-on-five thing. Combine that great attitude with his obvious talent, and special things can happen.

Most Improved: Seth Trimble is the most known commodity on this team, and he’s a rising senior. Seth’s dunk highlights were (sadly) the lingering highlight of last season. Seth’s been a defensive stand out virtually his entire time on campus. How can that profile win most votes for most improved? Well, it’s Seth’s first opportunity with a lead role on a complete roster. Veesaar, Wilson, and Bogavac will command defensive attention, giving Seth’s remarkable athleticism room to roam. Seth’s offensive profile has plenty of room for growth with after shooting 43% from the field and 26% from deep last season. Add it all up, and Seth’s game could soar, just like those dunk highlights.

James Brown, the other returning player from last year’s roster, came to UNC as a project big man. Entering his 2nd season, a sophomore leap would be a godsend for UNC’s interior depth and post physicality. Brown got a few minutes in the BYU exhibition, treating screens like a puppy attacks chew toys and earning two quick fouls. James has the most room for growth of anyone based on last year’s results, and by all accounts he’s been working his tail off to be a contributor this season.

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Biggest Surprise: Now we reach into the huge bag of questions for this team. Will it be Derek Dixon, true freshman point guard who last season earned POY honors and led his team to a championship? Will it be transfer Kyan Evans? Transfer Jarin Stevenson? International import Luka Bogavac? The range of answers reflects the depth of this team, the questions surrounding how all the pieces will fit, and the hopes for ways each of these players might grow.

Most Minutes off Bench: Jarin Stevenson runs away with this one. Jarin’s size, athleticism, range, and experience make him likely the first guy off the bench. He’s also capable of filling in at the three, four, and five spots, depending on the match up. The transfer from Alabama came back to Chapel Hill with questions about his willingness to rumble down low and finish with authority, but he’ll get plenty of opportunities to address those questions as the biggest bench contributor in terms of minutes.

Team’s Best Defender: Objectively, Caleb and Henri make a lot of sense. Their length, height, and mobility make them effective post defenders. Caleb’s ability to defend multiple positions — and to help from spots ordinary human beings can’t — understandably gets him the nod over Henri. Subjectively, given the defensive void inside for UNC last season, my vote at least, and perhaps others, draws on the hope these two dudes turn liability into strength for this team. Go Heels.

Most Three Pointers: Luka, Luka, Luka. UNC went half a world away to bring in this guy to do many things, but the main thing: drain threes when teams sag on Henri or double Caleb. If Luka doesn’t end up leading the team in threes, either someone from the Biggest Surprise category indeed surprised or something went terribly wrong. UNC, as of this writing, still hasn’t cleared Luka despite the NCAA and US Immigration giving Bogavac the thumbs up. Could that be the beginning of something terribly wrong? Reports vary on the hold up and potential resolution date.

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Team Performance

Best Win: Gotta be Duke, right? Two would be twice as nice. Kansas looms large as early-season proof of concept for this year’s squad (as well as the fact that UNC fans hate Kansas). “Best” can be interpreted either as “the win that would make me happiest” or “the win that gains the most traction with the selection committee,” and both of those apply here.

Worst Loss: Most voters went with good-not-great teams on the road, with the Atlanta House of Horrors getting the most nods. Some of those feared Ls would likely hurt on Selection Sunday. Given the turnover of rosters in college football and basketball these days, with the resulting volatility in season performance, it’s hard to know which teams on the schedule will present unexpected challenges or easy Ws. In football, for example, Florida State opened the season with a win over Alabama — and now sits winless in ACC play at Halloween. That’s going to happen in basketball (not to us, nope), we just don’t know to whom yet.

Regular Season Record: “So, even Davis, entering year five, remains a point of dissension for many UNC fans. Certainly no consensus of opinion exists.” And here we see it. That range between 22-9 and 28-3 has little to do with roster talent questions. I’m the complete outlier at 28-3, the data point an analysis algorithm would delete with alacrity. The average: 25-6. That would be an excellent result for a team remade on the fly, a result likely dependent on good health and good coaching (and UNC clearing Luka).

ACC Finish: Range: 1st to 5th. Average: 3rd. This again seems to come down to questions about Davis, rather than where UNC’s collective player talent might fit in a hierarchy of ACC rosters. ACC media predicted Duke, Louisville, then UNC for order of finish, so the THB Staff collectively falls in line with that expectation. Beating out Duke and Louisville for first would be a surprise, but not completely shocking. Fifth? Behind the likes of State, Virginia, SMU, or Clemson? Oof. That would likely have our new AD hunting a new coach. The ACC doesn’t appear to be loaded this season.

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NCAA Tournament Seed: Range: 1st to 6th. Average: 3rd. A 6th seed would be a top 25 team. A 3rd would be top 12. Conversations around NCAA tournament seeds, all fan bases, often include phrasing like, “We should be at least a 4 seed,” as if finishing in the top 16 out of a field of 357 equals rolling out of bed. Throw in at least 35 other athletic programs in better financial shape to throw money at players. Throw in a disconcerting number of directional Us or small private Us with a billionaire booster who loves them some college basketball.

Jerseys in the rafter mean little these days, if anything. If there’s a silver lining to the debacle that has been Belichick’s 2-5 start against one of the easiest schedules in college football, it’s the fact that spending so much on football NIL forced the powers-that-be to pony up for basketball NIL. Everyone looks at this roster and says, legitimately, “That looks like a very good basketball team.” The lowest expectation among the THB staff for this team is Top 25. Go Heels.

NCAA Tournament Outcome: Dean said even great teams need some luck to go deep into the tournament. UNC can point to several potential title teams over the years waylaid by key injuries late, at least two of them flagrant attempts to injure by no-talent hacks (still bitter). Sometimes a Harold Arceneaux just can’t miss, or RJ can’t find the bottom of the bucket. NCAA officiating. Sh*t happens.

A floor of Sweet 16 with a ceiling of “win the whole damn thing” likely hinges on some luck. We don’t appear to have, at this moment, the sort of force at guard like Ty Lawson paired with a post presence like Hansbrough to roll through NCAA games by double digit margins. However, the roster has depth, versality, and high-end talent. The coaching staff has gone deep before and knows the drill. Someone with that basic profile is probably going to win this thing this season. Why not us?

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One more time: Go Heels