Illinois travels to Nashville on Saturday night for a matchup against Tennessee. Both teams are ranked inside the top 20-ranked teams, both in the AP poll (ILL: 14, TENN: 13) and KenPom (ILL:17, TENN:16). Each enters coming off frustrating offensive performances, both barely cracking 60 points. If you watched last year’s heart-wrenching, last-second finish against the Vols, you probably expect another rock fight. Unfortunately, that’s often what happens when teams play Tennessee.
Rick Barnes’ teams always look the same: physical, elite defensively, and relentless on the glass. This year is no different. If Illinois is going to get its revenge this year, it will be earned, not given.
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In ways, they are very similar to this year’s Illini team. Both rebound at an extremely high level, and both play at slower tempos; neither has been particularly amazing from 3-point range, though Illinois certainly attempts more of them. Neither offense has yet taken that big leap of every-game consistency. Although I think many would agree, there is far more potential yet to be realized in Illinois’ offense.
However, let’s take a closer look at Tennessee’s profile to better understand what makes this premier SEC team tick and where they are vulnerable.
Tennessee: What They Actually Do Well:
Offensive rebounding and scoring at the rim
Tennessee is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, averaging roughly 18 second-chance points per game. Most of their shot attempts originate at the rim (36.4% of their total attempts) because of the constant rebounding pressure and their commitment to interior scoring.
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Assists from half-court execution
They rank 16th in the nation in assists with 19.2/game. Generating scoring through structure, not isolation. Illinois, by comparison, sits far behind at 147th in assists at just 14.3 per game. Yikes.
They defend all three levels
The Vols are elite defensively. Above average is the opponent’s FG% at all three levels. Shot-chart data shows that Tennessee excels at:
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Taking away corner threes
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Forcing contested mid-range looks
Where Tennessee Struggles:
Non Explosive-Offensive
Although posting a decent percentage from distance, they do not attempt many 3-pointers. They like to get their points down low in the paint, and yet do not excel at it. Their slower pace further limits scoring bursts. Illinois can live with contested twos.
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Turnovers
Tennessee turns the ball over on 15.6% of its offensive plays, whereas Illinois turns it over on around 12%. Illinois has rarely capitalized on miscues this season, but hopefully we see a change tomorrow.
The Formula for Illinois to Win
Hit Above-the-Break Threes
Tennessee defends well at every level, specifically at the rim and in the corners. However, a possible inroad is above-the-break 3s (3-point line excluding the corners). Tennessee wants opponents to take these shots, and Illinois needs to punish that plan.
So, which players are best and the most capable of doing this? Well, looking at the shooting heat maps, it’s Ben Humrichous and Zvonimir Ivisic, surprisingly enough. Both Humrichous and Ivisic are shooting nearly 43% from that region, over 10% above the NCAA average.
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I’m no basketball coach, but just from looking at the numbers, Big Z and Humrichous should be a major part of the offensive game plan, specifically in getting them above-the-break 3s and not corner 3s (as you can see they’re terrible at).
If these two hit these, Tennessee’s defensive scheme gets flipped on its head. Illini fans have been critical of Humrichous this year, for good reason. But if he can show up tomorrow, knocking down 3s, he has eased his way into fans’ good graces.
Hold Their Own in the Trenches
Illinois is top 10 in defensive rebounding. Tennessee is #1 in offensive rebounding. Something has to give.
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We need gang rebounding efforts, and Illinois’ big men need to bring their hard hats and lunch pail to work on the boards tomorrow. If they can hold their own, specifically on the defensive glass, they dramatically increase their win probability.
Avoid the Rock Fight Tennessee Prefers
Tennessee loves low-possession, low-scoring games. If Illinois scores 75 points or more, it is a tremendous advantage to the Illini. A game in the 60s favors Tennessee. Illini try to avoid the rock fight and look to score.
Illinois cannot fall into isolation-heavy stretches where possessions stall and the ball sticks. Brad wants to put up points, but when you are nearly dead last in fastbreak points like the Illini are, it is hard if there is not a fluid and coordinated half-court offense. It is imperative to look competent in the half-court to win.
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Illinois desperately needs transition touches, even if just a few. Converting turnovers into points is the one way to make Tennessee uncomfortable.
Conclusion
If Illinois plays Tennessee on Tennessee’s terms, this is a grind-to-62 type loss. In general, this matchup likely primarily comes down to who executes their half-court offense better.
However, Illinois must:
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exploit the above-the-break 3s,
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limit second-chance scoring,
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and turn Tennessee’s turnovers into points
If Illinois executes those areas Saturday night, this road trip turns into a résumé win rather than a repeat of last year’s heartbreak and a much-needed victory in the Music City.
