With the Nolan Arenado trade in the books, the Cardinals roster is coming into focus. While we are likely to see a few more transactions before the buses roll into Jupiter, this feels like a good time to give a zoomed-out look at the 40-man roster and the upper-minors depth. Regardless of what happens with Brendan Donovan and JoJo Romero before spring training, 2026 will be a year with a significant amount of roster churn as Chaim Bloom and the front office sort through a roster full of unproven players and a top farm system with a number of significant players set to graduate.
I think the term “runway” has been retired by the Cardinals marketing team, but it may actually be more relevant now than at any point in 2025. I don’t think there was anything wrong with the concept last season, but the fun of it for the fans was quickly subverted by watching Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker struggle. To add insult to injury, the roster still felt clogged with veterans Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado, gobbling up significant innings and plate appearances (sometimes deservedly so). That dynamic will not be a problem this season as the roster has been trimmed of any player who does not fit Bloom’s long-term vision of a roster built on young and/or internally developed talent.
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2026 will be a high-stakes game of Red Light, Green Light, with 60 players within the organization fighting for 40 roster spots when the dust settles on the 2026 season and rosters reset in mid-November. Bloom’s job for the next ten months is to make sure that the right players get opportunities and the right players get shipped out for more prospect capital. For this exercise, I am setting aside prospects that are unlikely to impact the team or roster in 2026. The 60 players in question (actually 62, counting those on expiring contracts) are grouped into four categories:
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40-man roster (years of control in parentheses)
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Players who will need to be added by season’s end to avoid exposure to the Rule 5 draft
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Players who might debut ahead of schedule regardless of 40-man or team-control restrictions
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Players/prospects on the Triple-A roster who could force their way back into the discussion
40-Man Roster
This roster is relatively deep, if lacking top-end talent, with only a handful of players who wouldn’t be rostered by the majority of teams. The other thing that jumps out is the amount of team control across nearly the entire roster. With the exception of May and Romero, every player is under control through at least 2027. Once the season starts, players can be moved to the 60-day Injured List to free up roster space, so there is flexibility here, with Roby and Hjerpe most likely to start on the 60-day IL. One thing I will be following this season is how the team approaches freeing up additional roster spaces as needed. Will they trim the weaker part of the back of the 40-man? Or will they be proactive at trading from the top of the 40-man if the opportunity presents itself?
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Prospects Needing Protection
This group is made up of players who are roughly top 50 prospects in the organization and will require a 40-man roster spot to avoid Rule 5 draft exposure. It is important from a roster-management perspective, but it also impacts how quickly we could see these players during the 2026 season. If the Cardinals plan to protect them and they have progressed enough to benefit from MLB playing time, they are likely to be added to the 26-man roster at some point during the season. This is the pattern we have seen with top prospects Masyn Winn, Thomas Saggese, and Jimmy Crooks. This dynamic is not limited to top prospects as more depth pieces like Nick Raquet and Cesar Prieto were added during the 2025 season. From this group, only Leonel Sequera, Travis Honeyman, and Jesus Baez have not appeared in Double-A or higher. Any of the rest are within punching distance of a major-league debut.
Prospect that May Debut Early
Wetherholt will obviously be up for most of the year barring some unforeseen catastrophe. Doyle is more of a long shot. Two of the four college pitchers drafted in the top 20 picks of the 2024 draft made major league debuts in 2025 (Chase Burns and Trey Yesavage). For Doyle to debut, he will need to hope the Cardinals are in playoff contention, or make an absolute mockery of the minor leagues.
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Forgotten Prospects
None of these players on their own is particularly likely to be impactful, but the Cardinals have spent years trying to get Thompson, Santos, and Naughton healthy. Koperniak and Rajcic are both former decent prospects that had tough 2025 seasons.
Starting Pitching
The starting rotation is what got me thinking about this whole depth question in the first place. While we are still waiting on the ZiPS projections to be released for the Cardinals, I would expect them to have a bottom 10 or possibly bottom five projected rotation. After their trades with Boston and the Dustin May signing, they do have a surprisingly deep rotation. Andre Pallante might start the season as the seventh starter or in the bullpen. While Pallante might never establish himself as the mid-rotation arm he has flashed promise of, he is the exact kind of guy that a team like the Cardinals with no immediate plans to contend, should be giving starts to. The problem is, you could make the same argument for every pitcher in the rotation. Along with Pallante, Liberatore, McGreevey, Dobbins, Fitts, and Leahy all project as fourth or fifth starter types. It will be critical for the Cardinals to sort through this group of pitchers and hang on to the right ones for the next contention window. Every team needs at least seven starters to get through a season, but we haven’t even touched on the minor leaguers at the upper levels vying for big-league starts.
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The injured trio of Hence, Hjerpe, and Roby is taking up a lot of space. Roby will miss all or most of the season, so he is pretty much a lock to take up a roster spot going into next offseason. Hence and Hjerpe need to be pushed aggressively, if healthy, even if that means moving them to the bullpen. In a perfect world, they could get 70 innings starting in the minors and then finish out the year in the St. Louis bullpen.
In an ideal world, multiple pitchers from the Mathews, Henderson, Mautz, and Doyle group shove their way into the picture by midseason. At this point, the Cardinals should have some answers on the top seven. If May and/or Pallante are pitching well, they could be traded to open up some starts.
Mathews, Lin, and Henderson are all on track to be added to the 40-man roster at season’s end. The rest have some work to do, but even adding three more pitchers with only May leaving via free agency will necessitate additional moves.
Relief Pitching
I won’t say much about relief pitching. Reliever volatility is too high to try to predict even a year in advance. It will likely be impacted substantially depending on which starters are redirected to the bullpen. On the prospect front, Gastelum rode an incredible changeup to a 35.4% strikeout rate. He could be up sooner rather than later. Austin Love shook off a two-year injury sabbatical and had a solid season in Springfield. After struggling with command in the first half, he put up a 26/4 K/BB ratio in August and September across 19 IP. He is my sleeper pick for a Matt Svanson type rise in 2026.
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Catcher
I won’t spend much time on the catcher position as this has been discussed ad nauseum over the last 12 months. My desired outcome would be that Ivan sticks at catcher and Pages is flipped for a prospect to open up time for Crooks. I understand why they are waiting, but this is another area where a decision will need to be made at some point.
Infield
The infield picture is the one that surprised me the most compared to my preconceived notions. The starting infield looks great (even assuming Wetherholt replaces Donovan), and Fermin/Saggese/Gorman are a reasonable group to fight it out for at-bats, but Blaze Jordan and Wetherholt stand alone as the only-upper minors options not already on the 40-man. This is not necessarily a problem given the objectives of 2026, but it explains why the Cardinals chose to hang on to Cesar Prieto and Bryan Torres. There just aren’t that many eligible players if Donovan follows Arenado out of town.
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Outfield
Cardinals’ outfielders ranked 26th in baseball last season putting up a combined 1.4 fWAR. So, the good news is there is nowhere to go but up… Nootbaar, Scott, Church, and Walker are in line to get the first crack at rectifying the outfield play we were subjected to in 2025. Looking at this group of 40-man players and prospects on the way, you can see why Chaim Bloom has signaled adding an outfield bat via free agency. Outside of Joshua Baez, there are no projected starting-caliber players in the upper minors. With only two years of control left, a strong first half will likely put Nootbaar back on the trade block. Davis, Levenson, and Honeyman would all need a substantial breakout to factor into the long-term plans in a meaningful way. If no outside help is brought in, Fermin, Saggese and Torres could be given a crack at an outfield spot as well.
What I would like to see in 2026
We have to wait for spring training to start making our bold predictions, so consider this more of a wish list. Here are the eight things I would like to see happen to shape the roster over the next ten months.
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Brendan Donovan traded before spring training
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JJ Wetherholt given the Opening Day start
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Pitching prospects called up aggressively to replace faltering rotation or bullpen pieces
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Church, Saggase, Fermin, and Torres given opportunities rather than signing a free-agent stopgap
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Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, and Andre Pallante shopped at the trade deadline, if performing well
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JoJo Romero traded before spring training
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Hjerpe and Hence given major league opportunities as early as possible
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Luis Gastelum, Austin Love, and Skylar Hales given early opportunities in bullpen
