Another day, another story, another post about the state of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
While it’s fair to speculate about the state of a team that has missed the postseason for three consecutive seasons, a lot of speculation seems to have groupthink attached to it. Many just assume that GM and POHO Kyle Dubas and his Penguins are engaging in a long-term, tear-it-to-the-studs project that is going to take years and years to complete.
To be clear, let’s examine the reality of the Penguins’ situation: They are not anywhere close to the top playoff teams in the league, and it is going to take quite a lot of turnover in order for them to get back to that point. Typically, these kinds of turnarounds do indeed take some time.
But whether or not folks think Dubas’s potential plan is the right one, they also must consider the evidence in this scenario. If you investigate the Penguins’ rebuild rhetoric for “what we know” kind of information, you might just come away with a much different conclusion than that of what the masses – fans, media, and talking heads – seem to presume about the state and length of the rebuild.
For better or for worse, there are plenty of evidence-based factors pointing to the idea that Dubas is still not gunning solely for a long-term rebuild – or, at least, not the four- to seven-year plan that fans and many media members seem to think this is. Again, the Penguins have already missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons, and up to 10 years is a heck of a long time to remain non-competitive.
So, maybe this is delusional, or maybe this is just reading into everything that has transpired since the Penguins traded Jake Guentzel at the 2024 trade deadline. Here are five reasons why the Penguins are not just attempting to rebuild for the long haul – but why they’re also aiming to make the playoffs again in 2026-27.
Yes, there is a such thing as GM-speak. No GM is going to come out and say flatly, “Yes, we’re going to be terrible for a spell.”
But it’s not just about what Dubas has said regarding the rebuild. It’s about how he has said things and the context surrounding what he has said.
Yes, he has mentioned on several occasions that he doesn’t want to put a timeline on the rebulid, and for good reason. The latest example of this was at new head coach Dan Muse’s introductory presser.
‘I Couldn’t Be More Excited To Get Started Here’: 3 Takeaways From Dan Muse’s Introductory Press Conference As Penguins’ Head Coach
On Wednesday, Pittsburgh Penguins president of hockey operations and general manager Kyle Dubas formally introduced Dan Muse as the 23rd head coach in franchise history at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pa.
But, during Dubas’s post-season press conference, he did mention that the Penguins were moving into the execution phase of their rebuild and that “we have to execute our butts off.” While this little tidbit is interesting enough on its own, there are two other things he said that were, perhaps, even more interesting – and telling.
When asked about whether or not he thought the worst times were behind the team and if the team had already hit “rock bottom,” he was a bit cryptic at first. But he, eventually, gave a rather telling response:
“When I look today, maybe we had less points than we had last year… but I feel like we’re slightly better-positioned as we move ahead because of the younger players here,” Dubas said in April. “So, I don’t think I can sit here and try to give you an exact answer, but in my mind, when I look back on the previous two years, I think the previous March more represented that than now. We have our own younger players that have come up and performed well, and I’m more optimistic going into next year than I was this year organizationally. The results are going to be what they’re going to be, but I feel we’re closer to where we want to get back to now than last year.”
And when asked about pulling lessons from the season the Washington Capitals had, he said:
“There’s two paths to go down. You can go into the mass teardown rebuild and hope you get lucky with the lottery and hope that all this happens… but you can hope in one hand and s— in the other and see which one fills up first.”
‘We Have To Stick To A Very Concise Plan And Then Execute Our Butts Off’: Dubas Clarifies Penguins’ Summer Plans
To close out the 2024-25 season, Pittsburgh Penguins president of hockey operations and general manager Kyle Dubas spoke with the Pittsburgh media on Monday.
By suggesting that the organization thinks that the worst days are probably behind them, why would that indicate that the Penguins are only going the long-term route? Because, if they were, that statement would most certainly not be true. There would be much darker, worse days ahead for this team and the on-ice product. And he just about shot down the idea of a long-term rebuild with the second comment.
And let’s not forget what Dubas said on The GM Show with Josh Getzoff around the turn of the new year before Marcus Pettersson was traded, either: He talked at length about not all rebuilds being “binary” and that the Penguins’ situation is much more gray than either-or.
“The way that we’re going will continue to be clear to everybody,” Dubas said. “Which is, we’re trying to return the team to being a contender as soon as possible. How are we going to do that? We have to add younger NHL players, we have to add prospects, and we have to add future capital and draft picks to the mix.
“So, my view of it is that we should be able to accomplish that and still be able to maintain our spot in the playoff race and push for it. I know that isn’t met with the most open understanding at times, and I understand why… people want it to be binary. They want it to be, ‘Are you in contention now, or are you rebuilding now?’ And the in-between is where it tends to get a little bit ambiguous. I think we kind of like it that way as well because it keeps our cards closer to our chest.”
This point will be hashed out in the next segment. But this quote alone suggests that they are not planning for their next playoff appearance to be years away. There is more than one plan being executed at once.
In today’s NHL, there is a such thing as simultaneously rebuilding for the short-term and the long-term.
And when you look at the scope of everything Dubas and the Penguins have done over the last two years, that seems to be exactly what is happening.
Yes, it’s going to take a little bit of lottery luck. It’s no secret that Dubas doesn’t plan for the Penguins to be overly competitive in 2025-26 – he has said that it would be “an accomplishment” for the team to make the playoffs – and it’s highly likely that the organization is, in a way, banking on either drafting high to begin with or the lottery ball falling their way in 2026.
If the Penguins can get that franchise-changing talent – a No. 1 center or No. 1 defenseman by need – early on in next year’s draft and, presumably, a player who can help them at the NHL level immediately? That very much changes both their short- and long-term outlook.
Plus, the Penguins already drafted three players in the first round of the 2025 NHL Draft, and they have a ton of picks in the second and third rounds over the next several drafts. Some of those higher picks can help more immediately, while some others will help farther down the road.
The Penguins don’t necessarily have to give up any – or, at least, not many – assets in order to acquire enough talent to gun for the playoffs in 2026-27. They already have a lot of complementary young talent, and Sidney Crosby is still playing at an otherwordly level. And the best thing is that, if they do make the playoffs in 2027, they wouldn’t necessarily be mortgaging their long-term future.
All rebuilds entail hitting on scouting and development as well as hitting some luck. It may not be the best strategy for the Penguins to bank on the luck of the 2026 lottery ball, but if they do strike some luck, the short-term window works. And it can work in congruence with the Penguins also building for the long-term because of the draft capital and the assets they have already targeted and kept and continue to target and keep.
It isn’t a coincidence that Dubas has very clearly leaned toward targeting more NHL-ready talent in his trade dealings rather than gunning for top-tier draft capital.
Yes, he made out on the Marcus Pettersson deal by getting that New York Rangers‘ conditional first-round pick, and he also made sure to get forward Melvin Fernstrom – SHL Rookie of the Year last season – as part of that return in addition to the first. But him getting the first in that trade has been the exception.
In the Guentzel trade, the main piece was Ville Koivunen, who has already shown he belongs at the NHL level. They also managed to turn that second-round pick into Harrison Brunicke – a potential top-pairing defenseman not far from NHL minutes – as part of that trade tree.
Top-20 Penguins’ Prospects 2025: Defenseman Exceeds Expectations, Eyes NHL Roster Spot
Heading into the 2025-26 season, the Pittsburgh Penguins have shifted the focus to youth and development.
Dubas traded Brayden Yager – still a couple of years away from making any kind of impact at the NHL level – for Rutger McGroarty, who is, like Koivunen, seemingly NHL-ready. And, this summer, he traded for 24-year-old goaltender Arturs Silovs, who just went on an astounding, wildly impressive Calder Cup run with the Abbotsford Canucks and could be an upgrade in net.
He has also targeted younger players in need of change – see Philip Tomasino, Connor Dewar, and Tommy Novak – who can fill valuable bottom-six roles on a contending team.
Yes, they have also acquired or simply still have veteran players on expiring contracts to, hopefully, be flipped at the deadline. See Matt Dumba, Connor Clifton, Anthony Mantha, Danton Heinen, Kevin Hayes, and Noel Acciari. But notice how each of those players have contracts expiring at the end of the 2025-26 season – not the 2026-27 season.
The Penguins may sell big again at the deadline – but they might not be selling who you think they’ll be selling. And they’ll have a ton of flexibility heading into 2026-27.
If you’re fully sold on the long-term rebuild and find yourself wondering why both Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell are still on this roster, you’re certainly not alone.
But you also have to ask yourself why it could be this way. And that may lead you to view this situation in different light.
Sure, Rust has no trade protection, he is in high demand, and he is a key part of that locker room. But let’s focus on Rakell. If the Penguins were fully rebuilding, why wouldn’t Dubas have traded 31-year-old Rakell at peak value prior to the 2025 deadline?
Well, the deadline came and went, and Rakell was still on this roster. It will surely happen this summer, then, when teams will miss out on top free agents and pay up, they said. And guess what?
He’s still on this roster.
Folks are still saying that Dubas is playing the waiting game and being patient. Well… being patient for what, exactly? Rakell had a career season last year, and even if he comes close, it’s a big ask of him to replicate that. Dubas waiting also risks Rakell having a poor start to the season or getting injured, both of which would hurt his trade value.
Dubas isn’t stupid. He is well-aware that the window for Rakell’s maximum value may likely have already passed. So why play a waiting game? If you’re rebuilding long-term, you get the most you can get for good veteran players and move on, right?
Can The Penguins Still Rebuild With One Of Rakell Or Rust Around?
It seems like Pittsburgh Penguins‘ forwards Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust are the subject of Pittsburgh hockey news just about every other day at this point.
Yes. But that’s not what’s happening here. It’s probably true that Rakell’s value will never be higher than it was at the deadline and this summer. And – you guessed it – he’s still here.
There’s a reason Dubas is hesitant to move both Rust and Rakell, and no, it’s not just nostalgia. Again, Dubas is smart. The most plausible reason is that he truly sees a scenario in which Rust and Rakell can still help the team win within the three years they both have left on their contracts, and that’s why he’s setting his price almost unattainably high.
If that’s the case, that means he sees an opportunity for the team to make the playoffs sooner than four to seven years from now. Keeping them doesn’t necessarily jeopardize the team’s future if they keep all of their assets otherwise because having both young talent and talented veterans like Rust and Rakell is better than having only one of those things for a playoff run.
Now this is the big one, isn’t it?
All of Pittsburgh was a little shaken on Tuesday when Sidney Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, made some rather interesting comments at the NHL media tour about Crosby’s future with the Penguins and if he would ever consider leaving Pittsburgh.
“Well, it’s a reality,” Brisson told Pierre LeBrun in an interview for The Athletic. “First of all, he’s been so consistent for 20 years. He had another great year last season. He just keeps going. The comparison is Tom Brady. We want Sidney to hopefully be in the playoffs every year. We want him to hopefully win another Cup or two. So each year the team that he’s playing for fails to make the playoffs, it creates a lot of speculation. In reality, he’s not getting any younger. We’re here to support him. It’s the beginning of the season here. Let’s see how things are going. Hopefully they have a great season and the speculation will go away.”
He added: “Let’s put it this way, it’s always a possibility, you know? It’s been three years they haven’t made the playoffs. It all depends on how Sid is going to be and how the team is going to do. I maintain the same position that I do believe that he should be playing playoff hockey every year. In my opinion.”
‘It’s Always A Possibility, You Know?’: Agent Weighs In On Crosby’s Future
The Pittsburgh Penguins have Sidney Crosby locked up for the next two seasons, but that hasn’t stopped some of the national media from discussing him leaving the franchise.
Some will say that Brisson was simply trying to apply pressure on the Penguins to “change up the plan” for Crosby. Some will suggest that there is obviously something amiss either with Crosby and his relationship with the Penguins or with Brisson and Crosby as far as messaging is concerned.
But what if it’s neither, really? What if there’s no plan to “change up” because the plan isn’t what people assume it is in the first place? What if Brisson and Crosby are already privy to something about Dubas’s plan and potential timeline that the general public is not?
The comments were spicy, yes, but they were also realistic. And so was Crosby’s two-year contract extension when it was signed last season. If folks are to believe that Crosby is the ultimate winner and that he is very unhappy with the Penguins losing hockey games and missing playoff berths, why sign the thing in the first place?
Crosby knew where the team was likely headed. He knew the undertaking. It is reasonable to suggest that Crosby could simply be getting cold feet after-the-fact, but Crosby isn’t stupid, either. And neither is Brisson, who simply wants to see his best client win again. And – again – neither is Dubas.
NHL Rumor Roundup: Crosby Addresses Trade Rumors, Quinn Hughes Reacts To Brother’s Comments
The Pittsburgh Penguins are rebuilding
their roster, even though management won’t admit it. Forwards Bryan
Rust and Rickard Rakell and defenseman Erik Karlsson have been
frequently mentioned as trade candidates throughout the off-season.
Sidney Crosby is as competitive as they come. He is a winner. So, if he genuinely believed at the time of his signing last fall that he would never have another shot at the playoffs with the Penguins, there’s a decent chance he would not have re-signed in the first place.
Maybe Dubas could get Crosby to understand that there is a process, and that it might take a couple of years. Perhaps Crosby knew that last season would likely be a bust, and maybe even that 2025-26 would probably be a bust, even with young talent starting to populate the roster.
But 2026-27? His next contract year? That screams “prove it.” The Penguins will likely have some young talent with seasoning already on the roster in Koivunen, McGroarty, and Owen Pickering, at least. They’ll have more than $50 milliion in free cap space to spend however they want to with some huge names set to hit the market. They could have a top-tier draft pick. And they could still have good veterans like Rakell and Rust on the roster.
Pittsburgh Penguins’ 2025-26 Season Preview – Community Post
For the first time in a decade, the Pittsburgh Penguins will have a different coach than Mike Sullivan, who led the team to consecutive championships in 2015-16 and 2016-17.
Realistically, the Penguins can have a “prove it” year in 2026-27 without sacrificing the future much. If they rise to greater heights, they could set themselves up to compete in the short- and long-term, even if there is a small gap between those windows. If they falter, they would have the evidence to show Crosby they tried, and he can make career decisions accordingly. And they wouldn’t really be worse off for trying.
Yes, the Penguins are in a rebuild. But – given the evidence of what’s been said, done, and not done – there’s a pretty good chance that it’s not the rebuild you think it is.
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