Coming off a disappointing performance and a flat first half against Wisconsin, Northwestern will look to respond in a matchup it badly needs to win this early in the season. Here are three keys heading into tomorrow’s game versus the Buckeyes.
Defensive effort
Northwestern’s calling card under Chris Collins has always been defense, but the last five games have told a much different story. After holding the first three opponents to 47, 53 and 63 points, respectively, NU has allowed at least 77 in each of the last five contests. And in all three losses during that stretch, opponents scored 83 or more. Even with tougher competition, that level of defensive production is not acceptable for a team that prides itself on gritty and disciplined play.
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The Wisconsin game highlighted how far the ‘Cats have drifted from their defensive identity. Northwestern surrendered a whopping 55 points in the first half. It was an alarming display that left fans questioning the team’s urgency and focus. To Northwestern’s credit, the group settled in and held Wisconsin to 30 points after the break, which made the final score of 85-73 look more respectable, although anyone who watched knows the game felt much more lopsided than the box score suggests.
Even with the struggles, there were individual bright spots. Jordan Clayton scored his first nine points of the season and played with some real energy, finishing with the best plus-minus on the team at plus-nine. Meanwhile, Jayden Reid seemed rattled after an early airball, posting a minus-21 as opposing guards targeted him on defense possession after possession.
Northwestern had its share of offensive problems, too, but defensive effort is the most controllable part of the game, and the first half in Madison simply did not resemble a typical Chris Collins performance. The ‘Cats will go only as far as their defense takes them, and tomorrow’s matchup will require a major reset in intensity, communication and physicality.
Crashing the Boards
Rebounding continues to be Northwestern’s biggest issue. The ‘Cats have been beaten on the glass in far too many games this season, and even when they win the overall rebounding battle, the underlying numbers remain concerning. Northwestern outrebounded Wisconsin 37 to 33 but still allowed 13 offensive rebounds, which is far too many extra possessions. NU is giving up 11.1 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 314th nationally out of 365 teams. Opponents are grabbing 32.6 percent of their own misses, which puts the ‘Cats at 279th in defensive rebounding rate.
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The problem has shown up across multiple games. Against DePaul, Northwestern was outrebounded 34 to 25 and surrendered 16 offensive boards. Virginia similarly dominated the glass 49 to 25 and pulled down 21 offensive rebounds despite NU still managing to stay competitive. South Carolina outrebounded the ‘Cats 31 to 26 with 13 offensive rebounds. Oklahoma State posted a 39 to 31 edge and secured 15 on the offensive end.
It is very difficult to win when opponents are consistently getting second and third opportunities. On paper, Northwestern should not be this vulnerable. Except for Jayden Reid, every starter is at least 6-foot-6, which suggests the issue is more about effort and positioning than just a lack of size. Reid’s 1.3 rebounds per game is lower than ideal, but all-time great Boo Buie only averaged just 2.8 during his career, so the responsibility does not fall on the point guard alone. The bigger concern is that Arrinten Page needs to be stronger with box-outs and secure more rebounds in traffic.
The absence of Matthew Nicholson and Brooks Barnhizer has clearly magnified NU’s rebounding problems. Nicholson averaged only 5.5 rebounds last season, but his seven-foot, 280-pound frame helped control the paint. Barnhizer, who grabbed 8.8 rebounds per game and did a little bit of everything, was essential to NU’s ability to finish possessions. Their departures are felt every night, and the team misses their physicality.
Still, Northwestern has to find internal solutions. Rebounding may not be the deciding factor against Ohio State, which ranks 81st nationally in total rebounding and 289th in offensive rebounding, but the ‘Cats must improve this area to compete throughout the rest of the Big Ten season.
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Offensive composure
Even though the ‘Cats rank 10th in the country in turnovers per game at 9.3, they have struggled with overall composure on the offensive end. Northwestern is playing at a much quicker pace this season, and as shown against Wisconsin, the team is averaging just under 16 seconds per possession. Much of that pace comes from Jayden Reid pushing the ball up the floor, but there have been far too many possessions where an NU player simply throws the ball out of bounds or loses it off a knee. The ‘Cats looked rattled early against Wisconsin, scoring only 12 points in the first 11 minutes and quickly falling behind by 15. As Big Ten play begins, Northwestern needs to run more set actions and stay composed.
Another question for the ‘Cats is how much offensive upside is worth the defensive tradeoff. The player at the center of that conversation is Max Green. The Holy Cross transfer has shown flashes of explosive scoring, highlighted by his 16-point performance in nine minutes against Cleveland State and his 13 points in 11 minutes against South Carolina. However, he continues to struggle on defense and often gets beat off the dribble with ease, which allows opposing guards to get into rhythm while he’s on the floor. Still, with Northwestern’s struggles from three, Green has the potential to fill a role similar to a Ryan Langborg or a Ty Berry. It may come down to what Chris Collins values more, and this season defense seems to be the greater concern.
