The news that future NFL Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick signed a deal to take over as the head coach of North Carolina’s college football team sent shockwaves through the sports world earlier this year.
Sportsbooks were quick to put up a season win total for UNC based off the media attention, and BetMGM posted an over/under of 7.5, favoring the over at -130 (while the under was +105). Initially, at some books there was optimism for Belichick’s first season and early over bets on that 7.5 total. Over the summer, though, the bigger bets have come in on the under, and at BetMGM the win total is now 7.5 with the under juiced to -160. North Carolina under 7.5 is the third-most bet season win total under among all college football win totals by total wagers.
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“We opened UNC early with the Belichick signing getting a lot of hype,” Joey Feazel, head college football trader at Caesars Sportsbook, said. “That was the first win total that we put up. We initially started taking some over money, but overall about 65% of the bets are on the under now. We opened this at 7.5, over -125 and the over is now +145.”
Several handicappers that Yahoo Sports spoke with this offseason leaned to the under for a variety of reasons, including doubts about how the new starting QB — Gio Lopez, a transfer from South Alabama — would adjust to tougher ACC competition and the complete transformation of the roster through the portal. However, there was less conviction on the wager because of North Carolina’s potentially easy schedule.
“I have a little more pessimistic take [on UNC],” Brad Powers, a well-known college football handicapper, revealed. “Roster is completely new and they lost a couple of their best players post spring — I don’t like that. Lopez is a good QB, but not sure he’s great for UNC. One of the first bets I made this season back in January was North Carolina under 7.5, and I would still be of that position now. It would be my biggest position this offseason, but their schedule isn’t overly difficult. I bet TCU in the opener, but outside of Clemson, there aren’t a lot of surefire losses on that schedule.”
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Indeed, the Tar Heels have five games — at Charlotte, at Wake Forest, Richmond, UCF and Stanford — that should be victories, and only one game in which they’ll be massive underdogs (Week 6 vs. Clemson). If they go 3-3 in their other games, they’ll cash the over ticket for bettors.
“I think it’s going to be a building year for UNC,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City — a BetMGM book — opined. “Belichick needs a year under his belt with kids that he recruited and can build towards something. They’re probably around a seven-win team this year. Eight wins or more I think would be seen as a success.”
A Fanatics Sportsbook college football trader also noted similar line movement for the Tar Heels’ season win total at his shop, as they opened the over/under at 7.5 with the under +100; the under is now -165.
“Tom Brady ain’t walking through that door in Chapel Hill,” Paul Stone, a respected college football handicapper told me this summer. “The Tar Heels were losers in the portal. I haven’t played it, but my lean would certainly be under 7.5. I don’t think they’ll average 31 PPG again this year [on offense], and they lost their top two defensive players through the portal. And the defense gave up 28 PPG last season. I personally played TCU as a small ‘dog when the numbers came out, and I think the Horned Frogs will defeat UNC in Belichick’s debut. I don’t have great expectations for Year 1.”
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Multiple sportsbooks told Yahoo Sports this offseason that they took wagers from respected bettors on TCU to cover on Monday night at North Carolina, which has resulted in a massive line move. Monday night’s game opened months ago with UNC as a 1.5- or 2-point favorite at sportsbooks, and has moved not only to TCU as a road favorite, but a 3.5-point road favorite — all the way through the key number of 3.
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“We opened up UNC -1.5 back in April when there was a lot of hype going into the Belichick era,” Feazel said. “We’ve seen a lot of sharp action fade that narrative and we’re now sitting at TCU -3.5. More action on TCU and on the under. Total opened 59.5, now 56.”
At BetMGM, 48% of wagers and 53% of the handle were on TCU to cover, but a whopping 79% of wagers were on North Carolina to win on the money line (now +145). The more popular play has been the under in the game, with 79% of bets and 87% of the handle on the under. Over 80% of the money was on the under at several sportsbooks, as of Sunday morning.
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One trader even told me that he’s already dropped the Tar Heels’ power rating 4.5 points based off of the betting market’s reaction to the win total and Week 1 game.
Regardless of the outcome, it should be quite a spectacle on Monday in Chapel Hill for Belichick’s North Carolina head coaching debut. And a fascinating story for college football fans — and bettors — to follow.
