Turning Point: Toyota gives an inch at Loudon; will Hendrick take a mile?

Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the rearview and Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN BET at Kansas Speedway up next (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

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1. Toyota gives an inch at Loudon; is Hendrick going to take a mile?

Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing failed to capitalize on a maximal opportunity at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, allowing Team Penske to win and Hendrick Motorsports to get back in the fight. Will their edge be further whittled down this weekend at Kansas Speedway?

A decade-plus in, there’s enough evidence to say somewhat definitively: The NASCAR Playoffs are all about momentum. Gaining it, holding it or losing it can be the crux of the most dramatic of playoff letdowns, while also being the vehicle that drives some of the most historic title runs we’ve seen yet.

So it was mystifying to see the equity Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing built to open the playoffs through one of the most dominant postseason rounds we’ve ever seen all but evaporate into thin air Sunday at Loudon, an almost-impressive disappearing act fit for the “Magic Mile.”

Toyota entered New Hampshire with a remarkable edge, having swept the first three races of the playoffs as convincingly as possible, with arguably the manufacturer’s best track ahead in the Round of 12 opener at Loudon — a track that title heavyweight Christopher Bell tested at mere weeks earlier. The race told a different story, however, and even though Bell was Toyota’s top finisher in sixth … he was their top finisher. In sixth.

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This came packaged with being forced to watch Team Penske eviscerate the field for its first win of the playoffs and Hendrick Motorsports’ trio excel at a track at which they’d been somewhat written off coming in, with no wins at New Hampshire since 2012. And on top of that, 23XI’s Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace entered looking like surefire Round of 8 contenders before each landed outside the top 20. They now jointly occupy the bottom of the standings.

The opportunity was there to mash the gas on the momentum they built up and suffocate the playoff field with it; Toyota instead stumbled out of the door and left it wide open for their fellow contenders to barrel through.

Still, Bell left New England plus-29 to the cut and should be a near-lock to advance, but can he be happy after the “Magic Mile” misfire?

“That’s a loaded question,” the No. 20 driver said on pit road after Sunday’s 301-lapper. “I think from a points standpoint, we did well. I know a lot of people are going to look at me and say how can I be frustrated at Gateway and not today. Well, this weekend really was a whole different story. We just didn’t have the pace. We didn’t have the pace to run with the top competitors. We walked out of here with a lot of points, so I think it was a successful day.”

Successful on paper, sure, but questions remain.

Reddick and Wallace, in particular, have found Kansas Speedway, site of Sunday’s romp, a tougher venue lately than expected with recent finishes well off their earlier success at the track. Their falloff at Kansas, combined with New Hampshire’s snafu, has put them under pressure, especially with the Round of 12 rapidly approaching its critical tipping point.

“Yeah, there’s just a lot of question marks honestly. Places we have had speed at, we don’t bring speed. That’s been one of them for us,” said Reddick, 23 points below the bubble. “Yeah, we need something special to happen. I’m hoping we find the answer.”

Wallace, 27 points down and staring up at 11 drivers, did not walk out of Loudon any more upbeat.

“Just a miss all around really. We couldn’t really seem to get things going,” said the No. 23 driver. “Our best run lasted for five laps, the caution came out and then it was just right back to no good. I hate it. I felt really optimistic and marched forward at the start and it just never really went anywhere. We kind of plateaued Lap 5 and that was it. I hate that. It’s just a head scratcher. I told our team we’re way better than that. We know it. As much of a gut punch as this one is, we’ll move on. This is what we’ve got to do.”

Meanwhile, Hendrick Motorsports has made Kansas its home, home on the range, with Kyle Larson alone winning three times there since 2021 including a dominant 221-lap stomping in May’s race. The Chevy powerhouse’s ability to consistently place cars in the top two in six of the last eight Kansas races signals not just talent but deep organizational mastery over this intermediate 1.5-mile oval and its at-times chaotic style of racing in the Next Gen era.

Add to that the steady performances of William Byron and even ousted playoff driver Alex Bowman at the track, it points to this potentially being the team’s first place to strike in the playoffs. That’s perhaps especially notable considering the fall Kansas winner has gone on to win the championship four times.

This Round of 12 weekend has the feel of a defining moment ahead. Penske suddenly looks headed toward one of its drivers holding a giant trophy after Phoenix for the fourth straight season. Hendrick has forcefully seized the inch given to them at Loudon, and it now appears they could stretch that into a full mile (and a half?) at Kansas. JGR and 23XI just had a wicked bad time in New Hampsha.

That’s where things stand, with Sunday looking like it could be all Hendrick.

But that’s also what it looked like last week for JGR and Toyota on the stats sheet — and that’s why we race ‘em in real life.

2. Did Kansas Speedway just become a must-win race?

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