Turning Point: What did we learn from a rousing Round of 16?

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1. After Round of 16 sweep, we know JGR is elite — what else?

The Round of 16 was a consistent onslaught by Joe Gibbs Racing, turning in an unrelenting display of dominance as its three playoff drivers each participated in the opening round sweep. Will it continue or will others rise?

The Round of 12 is set. That’s about all we know.

Joe Gibbs Racing’s sweep of the Round of 16 to open the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs was nothing short of historic, capturing all three race wins and dominating the laps-led counter — but that only tells part of the story. Toyota, powered largely by JGR‘s trio of playoff standouts, commanded 78.6% of the laps across the three races, underscoring its current supremacy with just seven races remaining before a champion is crowned. The respective victories by Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell at Darlington, Gateway and Bristol — with elimination never really in question for 23XI Racing Toyota compatriots Tyler Reddick or Bubba Wallace, either — highlight both JGR‘s speed and depth across differently styled tracks; a necessary trait on the championship path. The team won five of six possible stages and secured nine top-10 finishes in the round (five more than any other team), showcasing a formula perfectly suited for playoff success.

Yet JGR’s dominance is part of a larger, more nuanced narrative. Only one driver that started the playoffs above the playoff cutline — rookie Shane van Gisbergen, who many had penciled in as a first-round elimination anyway — was eliminated in the Round of 16, marking one of the closest cutdowns of the modern playoff era. This signals the rising competitiveness and fine margins in today‘s playoff system, emphasizing that many strong contenders remain in the hunt. Of the 12 that do, a whopping nine of them have previous Championship 4 experience, many of them being several-time visitors. Go ahead and look up and down that field of 12; each one of them has a realistic and feasible path to the Championship 4 from here, and, even despite the Toyota dominance, you don’t get the sense that anybody is going to really run away with it.

Still, it’s hard to ignore what did happen and wonder how much of it will continue as things reset a bit with the Round of 12.

Briscoe continued an emergent summer, maintaining pace as the model of consistency and finishing in the top 10 in all three Round of 16 races, a solo feat no other playoff driver matched this round. No. 19’s performance was built on accumulating critical stage points and leading substantial laps (451), demonstrating that, in this playoff format, sustained excellence and smart racing strategy can be just as important as outright victories, as he would’ve been a clear advancer even without the win.

The Round of 16 starkly revealed the current divide among manufacturers, as well. Toyota‘s overwhelming performance contrasts decisively with Chevrolet‘s struggles, as the manufacturer saw just two top-five finishes across three races and an average finish hovering near 22nd place. Chevy flagship Hendrick Motorsports, traditionally a powerhouse team at this time of the season in particular, recorded some of its weakest playoff results, with Kyle Larson failing to crack the top 10 in any playoff race despite the round consisting of three of his strongest tracks. Regular Season Champion William Byron has similar difficulties converting performance into results at critical moments all of a sudden, and with five straight finishes outside the top 10, he’s now on pace for his worst average finish since 2022, when he last missed the Championship 4.

Ford, while better than Chevrolet in this round, showed mixed results. Team Penske drivers exhibited flashes of speed but lacked the dominant urgency to fully threaten Toyota‘s supremacy. The Blue Ovals’ inability to win more than one stage in the Round of 16 hints at a potential pace gap relative to Toyota teams.

Bubba Wallace has been a revelation, leading all playoff drivers in stage points with 35 and demonstrating a level of maturity and consistency that make him a threat in the coming rounds as he mounts his first realistic championship run. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick starts this round in last place, but a runner-up showing at Darlington inspires confidence, and he’s only three points in the hole. He could easily find himself on the right side of the bubble come Monday.

The elimination of SVG trims some unpredictability from the field, with some already having penciled him into the Round of 8 with the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval looming in this round and given everything we’ve seen from him on road courses this year. Now that he’s out, it puts even more pressure on the remaining 12 to win one of these next two with Kansas Speedway following New Hampshire.

(And on a related note, could someone like Austin Cindric, a dark horse Round of 12 driver and one that finished fourth at the Roval last year, now play that potential role as a shock advancer to the Round of 8?)

The Round of 12 typically sees shifts in momentum and fortunes. Look no further than last year for that.

Joey Logano, sitting just below the cutline, combines extensive playoff experience with a track record of delivering under pressure. With the round opener at his home track in New England, he could be primed to pounce early here despite a down year. Ryan Blaney‘s current fifth-place slot is comfortable but fragile, with three sneakily unpredictable races inhabiting this round.

This Round of 16 reinforced that, yes, speed and dominance set a championship foundation, and JGR looks like it could potentially put all three of its playoff drivers in the Championship 4.

But the evolving playoff battle demands consistency and resilience under pressure, and 0h-by-the-way, there’s a bunch of other drivers and teams just absolutely determined to beat Toyota now, solely focused on going faster than them.

In some ways, seven races remaining feels like an eternity. And we’re perhaps only scratching the surface of where these playoffs are headed.

2. Will Chevy’s Loudon drought end Sunday … by a surprise driver?

Chevrolet’s lack of victories at New Hampshire is increasingly glaring as the skid stretches even further into its second decade. With an up-for-grabs race ahead of us this weekend, it could be snapped — but not, perhaps, by the driver that would come to mind first.

With the Round of 12 around the corner and a “Magic Mile” showdown set for New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday, one under-the-radar storyline quietly looms large and holds potentially serious playoff implications: Chevrolet can‘t seem to win in New England anymore.

Halloween isn‘t until next month and Loudon, New Hampshire isn‘t quite a stone‘s throw Salem, Massachusetts (about 78 miles), but the numbers tell a haunting tale.

Despite historically dominating the track with a manufacturer-best 19 all-time victories, none of the bowtie brand’s current teams have tasted lobster in Victory Lane since Kasey Kahne’s triumph on July 15, 2012. That drought spans 18 races and two generations of Cup Series stock car — a staggering drought for a manufacturer that once treated New Hampshire as personal property.

The malaise is most notable in Chevrolet’s premier organization. Hendrick Motorsports, typically the gold standard for bowtie excellence, already arrives at New Hampshire nursing fresh wounds from a disastrous playoff opener at Darlington where all four drivers finished outside the top 15 … and things didn‘t get a whole lot better from there the rest of the round. Kyle Larson, despite being a three-time runner-up at Loudon, has never reached Victory Lane here. A meager 22 laps led across 14 starts represent his lowest total for any track with multiple appearances. William Byron has yet to crack the top 10 in seven Loudon starts, making it the sole active track where he lacks a top-10 finish. Alex Bowman’s struggles are equally pronounced, carrying a painful 24.4 average finish that speaks to the broader organizational challenges — and he just got knocked out of the playoffs, anyway. Chase Elliott has led double-digit laps in three of the last four there, but owns just three top 10s in 11 starts.

This Chevrolet weakness stands in stark contrast to Toyota’s iron grip on New Hampshire, which comes at a time when the manufacturer is already proving to be elite. Joe Gibbs Racing has transformed Loudon into its delightful summer getaway destination, sweeping the three Next Gen Loudon races and just flat-out owning the laps-led category in this era.

Yet amid this Toyota supremacy and Chevrolet despair, an intriguing wildcard emerges: Ross Chastain.

The 32-year-old Floridian’s Loudon resume quietly hints at breakthrough potential, despite a second half of 2025 in which he‘s gone all but missing on the results sheet. In the last four Loudon races, he’s recorded three top-10 finishes, and was Chevy‘s lone driver representative at a Goodyear tire test at the track not even two months ago. We‘ve already seen what this team can do when the pressure is on, winning NASCAR‘s marathon crown jewel from the tail of the field in May. Starting the Round of 12 below the cut in 11th place? They‘re certainly not resting easily right now.

He hasn‘t found the top 10 on an oval in quite some time — Michigan, to be exact — but six of his last seven 2025 finishes have been top-20 results, with no fewer than 17 points in any of them (hence why he‘s still here).

While Hendrick Motorsports wrestles with its well-known fundamental setup issues on flat tracks, Trackhouse could once again demonstrate the ability to punch above its weight class and clinch a Round of 8 spot before any of its drivers.

The broader context amplifies Chastain’s opportunity. Chevrolet’s playoff struggles run deeper than individual driver performances as Toyota wipes the floor, as previously established. Hendrick’s recent form suggests its struggles may persist as we head to the type of flat, 1-mile oval that has consistently been its one weakness in the Next Gen era.

Another winless weekend at Loudon would extend the drought to 19 races and add another chapter to one of modern NASCAR’s most perplexing manufacturer struggles.

The irony cuts deep; a track where Chevrolet once reigned supreme has become a house of horrors, with each passing race adding weight to the “Loudon curse” narrative that has haunted the manufacturer at the “Magic Mile” since the year “Magic Mike” was released in theaters.

Ross Chastain enters driver introductions through smoke.

3. Kyle Petty: ‘Do not put JGR on that championship trophy yet’

After the recent dominance in the Round of 16, Kyle Petty tells you why you shouldn’t pin the Cup championship on Joe Gibbs Racing just yet.

4. Champions make the magic happen at New Hampshire

Twelve of the last 16 race winners at Loudon are NASCAR Cup Series champions, with three of the other four going to drivers with multiple Championship 4 appearances. With two-thirds of the playoff field still each vying for their own first title, will the trend be bucked Sunday? (Credit: Racing Insights)

Date	Race Winner	Championship
9/22/2013	Matt Kenseth	2003
7/13/2014	Brad Keselowski	2012
9/21/2014	Joey Logano	2018, ’22
7/19/2015	Kyle Busch	2015, ’19
9/27/2015	Matt Kenseth	2003
7/17/2016	Matt Kenseth	2003
9/25/2016	Kevin Harvick	2014
7/16/2017	Denny Hamlin	—
9/24/2017	Kyle Busch	2015, ’19
7/22/2018	Kevin Harvick	2014
7/21/2019	Kevin Harvick	2014
8/2/2020	Brad Keselowski	2012
7/18/2021	Aric Almirola	—
7/17/2022	Christopher Bell	—
7/17/2023	Martin Truex Jr.	2017
6/23/2024	Christopher Bell	—