Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will say goodbye to one of its most important lightweights over the last decade, Dustin Poirier, in a show built exclusively around his final UFC fight. There’s the outside chance the promotion was already looking to return to the “Big Easy” and found a perfect marketing point for this weekend’s UFC 318 pay-per-view (PPV) card, going down this Sat. night (July 19, 2025) inside Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Either way, we’re getting the third and final fight between Poirier and longtime rival, Max Holloway, who recently jumped to lightweight after years in the 145-pound weight class.
The rest of the UFC 318 PPV lineup doesn’t scream “Gimme $80!” but that’s kind of where we’re at right now in mixed martial arts (MMA). Most big-ticket events feature one or two bangers built on a foundation of good-to-mediocre talent. To wit, Paulo Costa has dropped four of his last five and will co-headline this weekend’s big shebang opposite Roman Kopylov, who’s been in the promotion for nearly six years and has yet to crack the division Top 10.
We’ll talk more about that, along with the rest of the UFC 318 PPV main card, below.
155 lbs.: BMF Champion Max “Blessed” Holloway (26-8) vs. Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (30-9, 1 NC)
Dustin Poirier will make his final walk to the Octagon this weekend in his home state, and that fact that Dana White and Co. would build an entire card around the Louisianan should give you an idea of how valuable “The Diamond” has been to the promotion over the years. Poirier is the consummate gentleman outside the cage: carries himself like a champion, is a devoted family man, and donates a considerable amount of time and money to charitable organizations. Inside the cage, Poirier is an absolute savage, racking up an incredible 15 post-fight performance bonuses with 10 “Fight of the Night” honors. He averages more than five significant strikes per minute at 50-percent accuracy and has only gone to a decision nine times in 40 professional fights.
No failed drug tests, no botched weigh ins, no last-minute withdrawals due to mysterious hotel injuries, no embarrassing arrests, and a murderer’s row of lightweight opponents, including Khabib Nurmagomedov, Islam Makhachev, Justin Gaethje, and Charles Oliveira, among others. The absolute worst thing you can say about Poirier is that he failed to unify the division titles; but as a fan, I would much rather have this version of “The Diamond” than some of the other UFC “champions” who fight safe, pick-and-choose their opponents, and defend their respective straps once or twice per year (if we’re lucky). That said, consistency has been Poirier’s biggest challenge in recent years, alternating wins and losses in the wake of his Conor McGregor wins back in 2021 and his most recent performance ended with a submission loss to Makhachev roughly one year back.
Max Holloway is also coming off a title loss in what proved to be his final fight at 145 pounds, a crushing knockout defeat to the seemingly-invincible Ilia Topuria. That marked the first time “Blessed” has ever been stopped by strikes and to be honest, I’m kind of surprised it took this long. Holloway is an overwhelming striker with offensive stats the read like fiction, scoring the UFC record for significant strikes landed at 3457 and total strikes landed at 3706. Second place is well over 1,000 strikes behind in both categories but that level of output comes at a price. Holloway also eats nearly five significant strikes per minute, something he would get away with earlier in his career because of his indestructible chin. His durability post-Topuria is unknown, but you can rest assured Poirier is going to put that beard to the test on Saturday night inside Smoothie King Center — another one of those goofy names like KFC Yum! Center and Guaranteed Rate Field that highlights the awfulness of arena sponsorship.
Holloway will carry a three-inch advantage in both height and reach in the UFC 318 main event and attack with what is unquestionably the busiest offense in the game. But he also had those weapons in their first two fights and came up short both times. You can argue that Holloway has evolved and improved since those contests; and he has, but so too, has Poirier. His performance against Makhachev demonstrated no ill effects from his knockout loss to Justin Gaethje, despite coming up short in the fifth round, so I don’t expect him to crumble against the Hawaiian when he’s got the hometown crowd behind him and the motivation to finish his career as a bona fide “BMF.” This is one of those insane fights that will have no surprising outcome, since a case can be made for both battle-tested veterans. Poirier loses if he’s over-aggressive and tries too hard to seal the deal, opening him up to a “Blessed” counter shot. Otherwise, expect a brutal, back-and-forth bloodbath that narrowly favors “The Diamond.”
Prediction: Poirier def. Holloway by decision
185 lbs.: Paulo “The Eraser” Costa (14-4) vs. Roman Kopylov (14-3)
Paulo Costa doesn’t hold any wins over anyone currently ranked in the middleweight Top 15. In fact, the Brazilian doesn’t hold any wins over anyone currently fighting in UFC. In addition, his only victory over the last six years came against the shopworn Luke Rockhold at UFC 278. “The Eraser” is now 34 years old and coming off consecutive decision losses to Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland and sits at No. 13 in the official UFC rankings. It’s also worth noting that 2024 is the only time Costa has fought twice in one calendar year since 2017 and he missed all of 2023 after undergoing elbow surgery. It’s hard to get better as a fighter in a stacked division when you hardly ever fight.
Outside of his technical knockout loss to Israel Adesanya, Costa has proven to be a fairly durable middleweight, with his other three losses coming by way of decision. His offensive striking is mostly based on power, though he will mix in the occasional takedown when the opportunity presents itself. Prior to his Adesanya loss, “The Eraser” notched three post-fight performance bonuses but just one in the wake of his championship defeat and to be honest, Costa looks worse each time out. I’m not sure if he lost the motivation to compete or simply benefitted from favorable matchmaking by getting battered, aging middleweights on their way out the door. Whatever the case may be, Costa will need a big performance this weekend in New Orleans if he wants to be taken seriously as a title contender.
Roman Kopylov is no spring chicken himself, turning 33 back in May. The Russian middleweight nearly ended his UFC career before it even got off the ground, losing his first two Octagon fights to Karl Roberson and Albert Duraev. Then Kopylov found his sea legs and rattled off four straight wins, all by way of knockout. There was talk of title contention heading into 2024 but Anthony Hernandez took care of that with a second-round submission. That loss aged fairly well after seeing what “Fluffy” has done at middleweight and Kopylov managed to bounce back with consecutive wins over Cesar Almeida and Chris Curtis. That said, a loss to Costa will likely keep the former Fight Nights Global middleweight champion out of the 185-pound title chase for the foreseeable future.
Costa and Kopylov are pretty evenly matched in terms of skill and durability, but “The Eraser” holds a marked advantage in experience. It’s easy to harp on the Brazilian for his string of losses to the bigger names in the division but Kopylov never had to face the boxing of Robert Whittaker or deal with the chin of Marvin Vettori. This contest is likely to be decided by the motivation of Costa. If he’s content to play class clown and spend more time on Twitter than in camp, he’ll probably sleepwalk his way to another decision loss. But if he makes good on all his UFC 318 fight talk and comes prepared and more importantly hungry, we’re going to have a helluva fight on our hands. The only downside to this middleweight banger is that it’s limited to three rounds.
Prediction: Costa def. Kopylov by decision
170 lbs.: Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (28-13, 1 NC) vs. Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez (19-5)
This will be the fourth time Kevin Holland has competed in 2025 … and it’s only July. “Trailblazer” fought five times in 2020 and that record is within reach, assuming Holland doesn’t suffer a catastrophic injury this weekend in New Orleans. That’s probably what the former “Contender Series” standout will be remembered for, which is a shame, because he’s a talented fighter who could probably make a run at the welterweight title if he made the effort, but racking up paychecks seems to be of primary importance. That said, abandoning his lazy run at middleweight quickly resulted in back-to-back wins at 170 pounds, which also means back-to-back “win” bonuses.
How much stock you put into those victories may depend on how you grade his strength of opposition. Holland took a decision over Gunnar Nelson at UFC London but “Gunni” only fights once every 17 years, so who knows what version of the Icelander we got against “Trailblazer.” Holland followed that up with a slick submission over Vicente Luque at UFC 316 back in June and that probably stands as his most impressive win over the last several years, considering “The Silent Assassin” was ranked in the Top 15 at the time of their contest. Holland is a long, rangy striker with knockout power and a surprisingly deceptive ground game, good enough to combine for 23 finishes in 28 wins. On the downside, Holland is already into double-digit losses at 13, getting stopped six times along the way.
Daniel Rodriguez was one of the biggest names in Combate Global who nearly missed his chance to compete for UFC, despite a “Contender Series” victory over Rico Farrington in Season 3. “D-Rod” was not awarded an instant contract but got called up the following year to fight Tim Means at UFC Rio Rancho, promptly disposing of “Dirty Bird” by second-round submission. From there it was off to the races, jumping out to a 6-1 start for UFC before it all fell apart. Rodriguez dropped three straight from 2022-24 and got finished twice, killing his momentum and leaving him unranked at 170 pounds. Unfazed, Rodriguez was able to battle back and score consecutive victories over Alex Morono and Santiago Ponzinibbio, with the latter going down by way of third-round knockout.
Working against Rodriguez is the fact that he’s giving up three inches in height and seven inches in reach. He’s also turning 39 in December, which makes him nearly seven years older than Holland. Neither fighter has takedown defense worth talking about though offensive wrestling is certainly within their capabilities, I just have a hard time imagining this fight not turning into an absolute barnburner, probably because Holland boasts nearly a dozen post-fight performance bonuses. This is an evenly matched fight in terms of style and it’s a shame we couldn’t get this as a five-round headliner for one of the APEX cards. Regardless, I think Holland has enough advantages to make this a clean sweep. But does he have the motivation? We’ll find out tomorrow night in “The Big Easy.”
Prediction: Holland def. Rodriguez by decision
155 lbs.: Dan “50k” Ige (19-9) vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (36-8)
Dan Ige has managed to retain his spot in the Top 15 of his division despite losing seven of his last 12 and scoring zero wins over any ranked fighters during that span. The Hawaiian is one of the original “Contender Series” standouts from Season 1 all the way back in 2017 and may not be the most consistent fighter, but he comes to bang and has racked up four post-fight performance bonuses for his efforts, thanks to a fan-friendly style that prioritizes action over winning. That won’t get you into the title hunt, but it certainly goes a long way in keeping you employed.
In fairness to Ige, he’s also faced some pretty stiff competition along the way, getting paired off with power punchers like Josh Emmett and punishing wrestlers like Movsar Evloev. “50k” was able to rebound from back-to-back losses against Diego Lopes and Lerone Murphy by planishing Sean Woodson at UFC 314 back in April. In terms of his skill set, Ige is good at everything and great at nothing, relying on his grit and pressure to carry him across the finish line. He’s also got a granite beard, having never been finished in 28 professional fights with all nine losses coming by way of decision.
Patricio Freire finally made his Octagon debut at UFC 314 last April, which unfortunately, came several years too late. The now 38 year-old Brazilian can still be a threat at 145 pounds, but we probably shouldn’t expect a prime “Pitbull” at this stage of the game. There was some criticism about the decision to pair him against Yair Rodriguez for his first UFC appearance, with the idea that a tune-up fight may cement his marketability as a major player in the featherweight division. At the same time, Freire was widely-considered one of the best fighters in the world not employed by UFC and his age didn’t give matchmakers the time to bring him along slowly.
Freire is a violent, fast-paced featherweight with 24 finishes split evenly between knockouts and submissions. I expect a much better performance from “Pitbull” in his sophomore effort, where he won’t be facing a rangy, technical striker who can keep him at bay. That’s the good news. The bad news is, he’s going to have to find a way to get through the armor of Ige, which is damn near impossible. If “50K” can survive the bludgeoning power of Josh Emmett and the savvy submissions of Diego Lopes, there’s no reason to think he won’t make it to the finish line against Freire. This fight should be a contender for “Fight of the Night” with the victory going to the busier, more aggressive combatant.
Prediction: Freire def. Ige by decision
155 lbs.: Michael “The Menace” Johnson (23-19) vs. Daniel “Golden Boy” Zellhuber (15-2)
Michael Johnson is just a few months shy of his 15-year anniversary with the promotion and that alone is a stunning achievement. When “The Menace” first stepped into the Octagon after his run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 12, Frankie Edgar had just defended the lightweight title against BJ Penn atop a fight card that featured Randy Couture vs. James Toney in the co-main event; so yeah, Johnson has been around for awhile.
He was probably one loss away from getting his walking papers back in early 2021. Johnson had dropped four in a row and nine of his last 12, but managed to keep the pink slip at bay with a knockout win over Alan Patrick. From there, “The Menace” has been hot-and-cold but is coming off two straight wins for the first time since 2018, so the 39 year-old striker is not to be counted out just yet. That said, he’s got his hands full this weekend in New Orleans.
Daniel Zellhuber blasted his way into Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2021 with a decision victory over Lucas Almeida. The Mexican prospect stumbled out of the gate, falling to Trey Ogden on points before rattling off three straight wins, which includes his nasty anaconda choke over Christos Giagos at Noche UFC. Zellhuber had an opportunity to separate himself from the pack at UFC 306 but instead, came up on the wrong end of a split decision to fellow “Contender Series” up-and-comer, Esteban Ribovics.
Johnson is a high-volume striker with below average accuracy and underrated offensive wrestling. The question coming into this fight is whether or not his speed and timing have diminished enough at age 39 to leave him one step behind the 26 year-old Zellhuber. “The Golden Boy” has seven knockouts to his name but zero as a UFC fighter and Johnson has only been stopped by strikes three times in his career. That said, “The Menace” has nine losses by way of submission, giving Zellhuber more ways to win.
A competitive, back-and-forth fight will find experience yielding to the strength of youth.
Prediction: Zellhuber def. Johnson by decision
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 318 fight card right RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the UFC 318 PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
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