UFC Rio preview predictions, odds, full card picks: Can Charles Oliveira go 18-0 in Brazil?

Charles Oliveira is back on a UFC Fight Night, folks. And while that may seem weird to say after his exhilarating time in the lightweight title scene, it couldn’t be more fitting for this homecoming affair.

The former UFC lightweight champion returns to action this Saturday, Oct. 11, for a relatively quick turnaround after his knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in June. He’ll look to extend his 17-0 win streak in his native Brazil when he collides with the always game Mateusz Gamrot, who looks to play spoiler on short notice and finally break through as a title threat after years of near-misses. Meanwhile, the co-main event features another ex-champ as Deiveson Figueiredo looks to get back on track against Montel Jackson.

Advertisement

A double-header of Oliveira and Figueiredo fights could’ve easily been a pay-per-view capstone two years ago, so it feels like a treat to see them on UFC Rio — especially in each’s home country. The rest of the card? Well, that’s mostly what we’ve come to expect from UFC Fight Nights in 2025, but the violence potential tips heavily on the scale for this one.

👑 UFC Rio’s lineup Crown grade: C+. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

155 pounds: Charles Oliveira (-105) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-115)

Fresh off the heels of his KSW run as an undefeated double champion, hopes were quite high for Gamrot upon his 2020 UFC debut. Then he battled to his split decision loss with Guram “Conner Burks” Kutateladze.

Advertisement

The loss didn’t derail Gamrot’s inevitable trajectory, but it was a sting that proved just how far he could go. Ultimately, he has consistently demonstrated his talent, showcasing a supremely well-rounded skillset that flourishes thanks to his phenomenal technique, whether striking or engaging in wrestling-heavy grapplefests. The dude is a great tactician, plain and simple.

On the other hand, there’s Oliveira, who is chaos personified, having only fought to a decision twice in the past 11 years. That’s a lot more insane to say out loud because it’s a wildly impressive feat we don’t really think of. Any MMA fan knows Oliveira is a finisher through and through, but 3 decisions in 23 fights? That’s absurd.

At the same time, that’s always been Oliveira, as he has only gone the distance 6 times in his 47 pro bouts (35-11, 1 NC). He has just become supremely talented at winning with the eight points of contact.

Advertisement

Throw the short-notice aspect of this fight out the window. Neither man believes it will play a factor, and they’re right. Stylistically, this is a tremendously awful matchup for Gamrot. Think back to Arman Tsarukyan’s split decision win over Oliveira in their three-round bout at UFC 300. Tsarukyan was fading while Oliveira remained threatening with his submission game from the bottom and doing more damage with strikes. He arguably won, after all.

Gamrot’s best chance will be to replicate the control Tsarukyan succeeded with, which is the loftiest of tasks against someone as impossibly dangerous as “Do Bronx.” The Brazilian legend boasts some of the most lethal clinchwork the division has ever seen and will punish Gamrot at any opportunity he gets close. When at a distance, Oliveira will hunt and stalk his prey, battering the touchable Gamrot with his punch flurries into a potential submission.

Pick: Oliveira

135 pounds: Deiveson Figueiredo (+240) vs. Montel Jackson (-300)

Jackson is great, don’t get me wrong. But I never anticipated expecting him to beat a former champion.

Advertisement

The size of bantamweight’s best has seemingly caught up to the former flyweight kingpin in Figueiredo. His last two losses to Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen provided just about every reason imaginable to doubt “Deus Da Guerra” going forward. It doesn’t help that he’s also 37.

Jackson, 33, has been on a very quiet six-fight win streak, and the UFC matchmakers have made it very clear they want to launch him into the title picture with this fight. The size difference will be laughable with the 5-foot-10 Jackson towering over his 5-foot-5 counterpart. Jackson is a gruelling force to deal with, even when his opponent isn’t at a size disadvantage. He’ll be too physical for Figueiredo to control in the grappling department, and his range and power will pummel from any angle he wants. This is the Jackson coming-out party.

Pick: Jackson

170 pounds: Vicente Luque (+425) vs. Joel Álvarez (-600)

The welterweight feature bout at UFC Rio feels somewhat similar to the co-main event — despite Vicente Luque playing the Figueiredo role at still just age 33.

Advertisement

Luque is one of those guys who’s aged mightily in fight years, and suffered through his career with a brain bleed. I’m no doctor, but that’s obviously not good, especially against an absolute assassin like Joel Álvarez.

This fight will be the welcome party for Álvarez after spending his career at lightweight and struggling with weight cuts in recent years. He was a massive lightweight, so it was better late than never for him to make this transition to a higher division. However, the matchup feels just mean. Álvarez’s knee strikes, in particular, have sinisterly shined in his recent victories. And as much of a violent striker as he’s proven to be, most of his finishes end by submission. Luque has had more diversity in his methods over the years, but in a way, this will be like Álvarez looking into a mirror at his older self — at least in fight years, because he’s only a year younger.

There’s simply more wear and tear on Luque at this point, and Álvarez has been one of the greatest low-key killers at lightweight since he arrived in the UFC six years ago. I fear for Luque on Saturday.

Pick: Álvarez

265 pounds: Jhonata Diniz (-115) vs. Mário Pinto (-105)

Why does UFC make me have to talk about unranked heavyweights? What did I do to deserve this?

Advertisement

Let’s not overthink it: This isn’t one for the tacticians. Jhonata Diniz and Mário Pinto are two large men who hit moderately hard for their size, and don’t do much else particularly well. It’s heavyweight MMA, which means someone will probably land a significant blow early, someone will likely fall over, and we’ll all move on. Or the opposite will happen, which would involve a lot of leaning and quicksand-like movements.

Both men are unproven thus far in their careers, but in the case of Pinto, he looks the part. He’s tall, athletic, clean (enough) technique, and has good finishing instincts. The record is a perfect, shiny 10-0, but untested. He hasn’t been pushed, he hasn’t been hit by someone who can hit back, and there’s little to show how he reacts once things start to go sideways. He’s young, confident, and offensively sound — which often works right up until it doesn’t.

So I’m throwing my dart at Pinto on this one, because he moved pretty smoothly before uncorking a clanger of a knockout blow to the jaw of Austen Lane in his UFC debut. (Yes, I know everyone knocks out Lane, that’s why it’s a dart toss.)

Pick: Pinto

145 pounds: Ricardo Ramos (-190) vs. Kaan Ofli (+155)

Ricardo Ramos looked like he had so much potential early in his UFC run. Yet, here we are, a whopping eight years later, with him continually seeking top 15 contention.

Advertisement

The Brazilian has the experience edge, and this is his fight to lose because of that. He’s better everywhere and has the tools to end it wherever it goes. But again, that’s never stopped him from self-destructing before.

If Ramos stays focused and doesn’t spin himself into the dirt, he should handle Ofli without much drama. If he doesn’t, expect chaos. Either way, it’ll probably end before the judges get involved.

This feels like a potential do-or-die matchup for both, as Ofli is entering off two losses in his only UFC fights thus far. Ramos is 1-3 in his last four, but continues to find ways to stick around. At home, expect him to rebound.

Pick: Ramos

145 pounds: Lucas Almeida (+125) vs. Michael Aswell (-150)

There’s something oddly funny about UFC Rio’s main card starting with two middling featherweight pairings. Regardless, I like the possibility for action better in this one over Ramos vs. Ofli.

Advertisement

Lucas Almeida fights like every exchange could be his last, which makes him exciting and wildly unpredictable. When he connects, it’s chaos in the best way — but his defense and pacing still haven’t caught up to his aggression.

Michael Aswell, meanwhile, brings a calmer, more structured approach. He’s measured, technical, tight with his punches, and less likely to gas himself out chasing a finish. Almeida’s pressure should steal early momentum, but Aswell’s steadiness and solid fundamentals should carry him once the fight settles.

With that said, the oddsmakers got this one right, but I love me a proper wild man. And this one likely starts wild before descending into further obscurity under the Brazilian lights.

Pick: Almeida

Preliminary Notes

Is UFC still looking for the next Ronda Rousey? Well, they might not have to if she ends up coming back after recently getting back in the gym, but regardless, they seemingly haven’t been anyway. But if they’re to find one, here comes BJJ wizard Beatriz Mesquita.

Advertisement

Heavyweight and women’s bantamweight are both barren wastelands of talent — or lack thereof. So if someone — anyone — like an undefeated submission specialist like Mesquita can come in and make waves, it will be a breath of fresh air. And she has a tailor-made matchup to thrive against Irina Alekseeva. Hilariously enough, after my Rousey mention, I have remembered that Alekseeva’s nickname is “Russian Ronda.” Let’s just say that one hasn’t worked out too well.

It would be an injustice not to add one more note on the bigger weight classes, as Valter Walker is also on this card. For some reason, he’s buried on the prelims while the Diniz vs. Pinto occupies a main card slot. The brother of Johnny Walker has stunningly started to carve out a nice winning streak, leaving legs in his wake with three consecutive heel hooks. Adding to the hilarity of everything that’s already been said about the UFC Rio prelims, Walker is tasked with Kamaru Usman’s brother, Mohammed Usman.

It’s a freaking brother battle, folks. You know what, UFC Rio rules. We’re adjusting the grade.

👑 UFC Rio’s lineup Crown grade: A++. 👑

Advertisement

[Ed. note: Aaaaand now Mohammed Usman is out. Alas, some things are just too beautiful for this world.]

Quick picks:

• Jafel Filho (+105) def. Clayton Carpenter (-125)

• Vitor Petrino (-325) def. Thomas Petersen (+260)

• Beatriz Mesquita (-650) def. Irina Alekseeva (+450)

• Lucas Rocha (-125) def. Stewart Nicoll (+105)

• Valter Walker (-325) def. Mohammed Usman (+260)

• Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+325) def. Julia Polastri (-425)

• Luan Lacerda (-250) def. Saimon Oliveira (+200)