UFC Vancouver predictions, odds, full card picks: Can Reinier de Ridder earn a title shot?

VANCOUVER — The UFC has returned to the Pacific Northwest — more specifically, the country of Canada — for what could be Reinier de Ridder’s chance to punch his ticket for a UFC middleweight title shot.

After a hard-fought win over Robert Whittaker in July, the former two-division titleholder in ONE Championship emerged on the shortlist of likely next title contenders. Instead, he received an offer to stay active and headline UFC Vancouver this Saturday, Oct. 18. Although his original opponent, Anthony Hernandez, was forced out due to injury, another staunch challenge in Brendan Allen stepped up to take his place.

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Regarding UFC Vancouver as a whole, it won’t blow your hair back, especially after a downgrade in the main event matchup. However, the four-pack of final fights is surprisingly better and more meaningful than usual. The rest of the card sprinkles in the Canadian flair along with some interesting prospects to watch, making it a pretty solid mid-day UFC Fight Night in the “Great White North.”

👑 UFC Vancouver’s lineup Crown grade: B. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

185 pounds: Reinier de Ridder (-210) vs. Brendan Allen (+170)

There’s nothing more deflating for a matchup than when the injured man on a phenomenal hot streak gets replaced by someone he beat. That’s the case with Allen in what will be his third UFC main event.

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The hype built up steadily around “All In” during his impressive seven-fight win streak, but that ended last year. I didn’t totally buy into his status as a title threat, but he did seem like a man deserving of the opportunity. Hernandez had other things to say, ultimately beating Allen in every area where he’s best.

In a matchup with de Ridder, Allen faces somewhat of a similar issue, except with a much bigger dude. “RDR” is a long, lethal, awkward moose of a man at middleweight, and uses every bit of the potential for devastation in his limbs — mostly with his relentless knees, whether from distance or in the clinch. It’s all a part of de Ridder’s plan to wither opponents until he squeezes their necks, threatening to pop their heads off like a toy.

De Ridder is awkward to handle from any position, but finds himself most comfortable on the ground, consistently threatening with submissions. Allen’s own confidence in his also very solid grappling will ultimately be his downfall, thanks to his willingness to exchange with de Ridder.

It’s difficult to imagine Allen getting submitted, but de Ridder’s run has delivered plenty of unexpected moments and wins. So what’s one more? A potential title shot sealer, that’s what it is.

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Pick: de Ridder

170 pounds: Kevin Holland (-105) vs. Mike Malott (-115)

It’s been a weird year for Kevin Holland. He kicked off the run by getting dogwalked by de Ridder, then outgrappled Gunnar Nelson in a rebound win. Follow that up with a Vicente Luque anaconda choke and a Daniel Rodriguez decision loss, and he’s now tasked with Mike Malott.

There’s no really telling what to expect from the guy, other than that he’ll talk a lot in the cage. He’ll gladly throw down, and can sneakily deliver wild moments on the ground. Between the two, Malott has been significantly more consistent, and has gotten back on track after his embarrassing comeback loss to Neil Magny.

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Canada’s Malott is the more refined, well-rounded welterweight in this matchup and knows how to finish wherever the fight goes. That isn’t to say Holland can’t do the same, because he very much can. However, you may not realize that his lone three stoppages via strikes the past five years came against the ghosts of Jacare Souza, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira.

Also, just to poke more at statistics, Holland has started to trend in a direction of win two, lose two — and he’s due for that second straight loss in this one. While they’re pretty equally matched, I give Malott a power and physical edge, but mostly I like his consistency and reliability to perform over “Trailblazer.”

Pick: Malott

135 pounds: Marlon Vera (+110) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (-135)

“Chito” Vera has been out of action for over a year and hopes to re-emerge as a bantamweight contender by halting Aiemann Zahabi’s thrilling run.

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Let me just throw it out there right now, Zahabi will win. He’s won me over after that Jose Aldo victory — whether you believe he should have won or not. That man survived hell on Earth in the form of one of the all-time greats’ fists and fury. I still don’t know how he survived, and maybe never will.

Zahabi has truly come into his own as an all-around threat, going toe-to-toe with Aldo. Simply surviving that showed what he’s made of. His performance prior against Pedro Munhoz was also notable, but can be questioned because of Munhoz’s status at the time. Regardless, he’s done what he should have done and won these fights, looking good in doing so. Vera, however, has largely remained the same fighter since he arrived in the UFC, if not declined slightly.

1-3 in his last four, there’s an argument to be made that Vera should be 0-4, with that one win coming in a forgettable clash with Munhoz. He’s just been an incredible low-volume striker for the last four years, realistically. He banks on finding his big shots at the end of rounds, and it paid off until it didn’t. Unless he’s made some drastic changes, particularly with re-finding his aggression, Zahabi should continue to ascend.

Pick: Zahabi

125 pounds: Manon Fiorot (-250) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+200)

Interestingly enough, going from one Canadian in Zahabi to another in Jasmine Jasudavicius, they’re fairly similar stories. Older contenders rising through their divisions late, with some questionable wins here and there.

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Admittedly, Jasadavicius has been much more impressive than Zahabi and has shown her improvements fight by fight. She’s been largely as dominant as one could ever hope for in her submissions of Jessica Andrade, Ariane da Silva and Priscila Cachoeira. Poor Brazilians, huh? “Jas” has not been kind to them. Let’s not forget one-time bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva, either.

She’s turned an entirely new leaf since getting masterfully outclassed by Natalia Silva in one of the best performances of the past five years when they fought in 2022. It’s been night and day for Jasudavicius, and now she’ll face an extremely high-caliber style from Manon Fiorot.

France’s recent title challenger is poised to play spoiler here after her loss to Valentina Shevchenko. Fiorot is a physical beast, living up to her nickname, and has picked apart everyone not named “The Bullet” thus far in her career. Jasudavicius has earned this spot and can win this fight if she mixes up her approach the way she has on this run. But styles always make fights, and I have to be convinced that she can overcome one of these unique, karate-kickboxer-type styles that Fiorot possesses. Especially since the latter will be hungry to wipe away the taste of defeat still lingering from that title shot.

Pick: Fiorot

135 pounds: Cody Gibson (-170) vs. Aoriqileng (+140)

“The Mongolian Murder” will forever be one of the most questionably great nicknames in MMA history.

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Cody Gibson’s career has been a long, winding road — and somehow, the veteran still finds himself hanging around. He’s gritty, experienced, and knows how to make ugly fights work in his favor. Aoriqileng, meanwhile, is chaos personified. The “Mongolian Murderer” throws heat early and often, sometimes at his own expense, and he’s shown that his chin can be rattled.

This one likely comes down to whether Gibson can survive the early storm and turn it into a grind. If he does, expect him to drown Aoriqileng with clinch pressure and control. If not, it could be a quick night for the younger brawler. I lean toward the old dog.

Pick: Gibson

155 pounds: Kyle Nelson (-105) vs. Matt Frevola (-115)

First of all, let me just say that Kyle Nelson’s mustache is quite a sight. If you have yet to see what I’m talking about, you’re in for a treat.

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Nelson is moving up to lightweight after years as a featherweight, where he’s scraped out just enough wins and thrilling bangers to stay on the roster. He’s a crafty kickboxer with decent power, but his brutal Steve Garcia loss exposed cracks in his defense, sending him up in weight.

Circling back to the nickname mentioned in the last fight, Matt Frevola is also in that category. “The Steamrolla” is the kind of fighter who happily applies his forward pressure and tries to overwhelm with wrestling and bursts of strikes, but his recent back-to-back knockout losses show that when fights get ugly, he might not be the guy you can trust in deep waters.

Nelson has a bit less tread on his tires, at least in the form of violent losses. He should be able to make this messy if he keeps his distance and stays smart. Frevola has the wrestling base and upside if Nelson falls off speed, but the risk is high.

Pick: Nelson

Preliminary Notes

There could be something to Charles Jourdain at bantamweight, but I’m not quite sold until I see him get through the ageless Davey Grant. Preliminary scraps don’t get much scrappier than that one, folks. That’s as much of a hidden gem fight as I’ve seen all year.

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Drew Dober somehow snuck his way onto UFC Vancouver, too. He’s fought nothing but killers in recent years, and it’s cost him at times. You’re never sorry you watched, though. Dober is must-see TV.

Azamat Bekoev has proven to be one worth watching at middleweight. There’s just something about a Russian out of American Top Team that adds a sprinkle of fun to the persona. All the knockout wins help, too. Nonetheless, he’s been on quite a roll, looking to extend his win streak to nine.

As I said off the top, UFC Vancouver has a lot to like, and most importantly, some meaningful matchups within multiple divisions.

Quick picks:

• Davey Grant (+145) def. Charles Jourdain (-175)

• Park Hyun-sung (-250) def. Bruno Silva (+200)

• Danny Barlow (-300) def. Djorden Ribeiro (+240)

• Drew Dober (-500) def. Kyle Prepolec (+400)

• Stephanie Luciano (-300) def. Ravena Oliveira (+240)

• Azamat Bekoev (-300) def. Yousri Belgaroui (+240)

• Melissa Croden (-130) def. Tainara Lisboa (+110)