Home US SportsUFC UFC Vegas 110 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

UFC Vegas 110 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

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This weekend (Sat., Nov. 1, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 110. We’re in for a rough stretch, folks. UFC 321 was supposed to be a great card that lifted spirits for the coming slog, but unfortunately, most of the intrigue collapsed on fight now. Now, we’re left with a consecutive pair of Apex events that are the polar opposite of noteworthy. Even the pair of main events — this week Steve Garcia vs. David Onama, next week Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown — would struggle to escape the “Prelims” of a good pay-per-view (PPV) card.

Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the main event:

PARIS, FRANCE – SEPTEMBER 06: (L-R) Ante Delija of Croatia punches Marcin Tybura of Poland in their heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at The Accor Arena on September 06, 2025 in Paris, France. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

Heavyweight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+105) vs. Ante Delija (-125)
Best Win for Cortes-Acosta? Serghei Spivac For Delija? Marcin Tybura
Current Streak: Cortes-Acosta lost his last bout, whereas Delija recently won his UFC debut
X-Factor: Both men are making fairly quick turnarounds
How these two match up: Initially announced as the main event, this is actually a pretty solid booking between Top 10 Heavyweights.

Cortes-Acosta hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in his nine-fight UFC career, but “Salsa Boy” is definitely a welcome addition to the divisional roster at its weakest point in recent memory. He’s a boxer first and foremost, and though he’s not a huge hitter, Cortes-Acosta is more durable and better conditioned than many of his peers. Delija is a striker as well, but the Croatian veteran has no trouble putting opponents away. He’s known for surging out of the gates with heavy swings, which is exactly how he picked up that excellent debut knockout over Tybura just last month.

I’m expecting a really competitive fight here, which hopefully translates to an entertaining bout as well. Delija’s speed and power should provide him an early advantage, but Cortes-Acosta just shrugged off bombs with Sergei Pavlovich without issue, so an early finish is unlikely. When Delija starts to slow a little bit, I’m expecting that “Salsa Boy” jab to make its presence known in a major way.

The question is when does the momentum shift occur? I’m expecting a 29-28 for one man or the other, depending on when Cortes-Acosta is able to get his jab humming and set his distance. The second round is likely going to decide the fight …

Prediction: Cortes-Acosta via decision

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 12: (R-L) Themba Gorimbo of Zimbabwe punches Niko Price in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on October 12, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 12: (R-L) Themba Gorimbo of Zimbabwe punches Niko Price in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on October 12, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Welterweight: Jeremiah Wells (+110) vs. Themba Gorimbo (-130)
Best Win for Wells? Matthew Semelsberger For Gorimbo? Niko Price
Current Streak: Wells has lost two in a row, whereas Gorimbo lost his last bout
X-Factor: Wells is the much heavier hitter
How these two match up: This should be a fun — if sloppy — 170-pound clash between physical talents.

Wells overall MMA game is a bit of a mess, but his athleticism cannot be denied. The former CFFC champion is an explosive mix of winging hooks and blast double legs. His pace isn’t the most consistent, but he still hurts his opponents fairly often. Gorimbo, conversely, is nonstop. “The Answer” has found success on the feet and with takedowns, but the consistent thread through both aspects of his game is that grit and work rate are more responsible for his success than fancy technique.

Realistically, I believe Wells has about seven minutes to win this fight via submission or knockout. He’s just not likely to win a decision against a fighter who throws more punches and wrestles at a much more active rate. The problem for Gorimbo is that he throws himself into the fire early and often, which is how he ended up strangled by Vicente Luque in less than a minute last time out.

Wells is a dangerous man, and a similar outcome could occur here. I find it less likely than a Gorimbo decision, however, because Wells’ game isn’t quite as built to dismantle wrestling as Luque. More likely, Gorimbo finds himself in some difficult positions early on but is able to work through them, and he’ll build success as the fight wears on.

Prediction: Gorimbo via decision

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 07: (L-R) Isaac Dulgarian punches Brendon Marotte in a featherweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on September 07, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 07: (L-R) Isaac Dulgarian punches Brendon Marotte in a featherweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on September 07, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Featherweight: Isaac Dulgarian (-285) vs. Yadier del Valle (+230)
Best Win for Dulgarian? Francis Marshall For del Valle? Antonio Monteiro
Current Streak:Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Who wins the takedown battle?
How these two match up: This is an exciting clash of ground fighters.

Dulgarian is an overwhelming wrestler with a 100% finishing rate. He’s still very early in his career overall, but “The Midwest Chopper” is very clearly a physical force with some serious skill as a collegiate wrestler. Del Valle, meanwhile, is undefeated as a professional and also excels on the canvas, where he’s scored a bulk of his finishes. This is something of a mirror match, as both men are similarly sized, the same age, and win fights in similar fashion.

The most standout difference — and the explanation behind the wide odds — is Dulgarian’s edge in raw strength and explosiveness. There’s going to be an early takedown battle, and Dulgarian is very likely to come out on top. Often, grapplers accustomed to winning from top position like del Valle really struggle when placed on bottom by a superior wrestler, so that’s a concern here.

The concern on the Dulgarian side of the equation is that del Valle is able to survive, scramble, and outlast him. Christian Rodriguez handed Dulgarian the sole loss of his career by withstanding the early barrage, and Dulgarian still pushes a crazy pace. It should be noted, however, that “C-Rod” is a damn good counter wrestler, and that’s a different skill set than what del Valle usually employs.

Prediction: Dulgarian via submission

MONTREAL, QUEBEC - MAY 09: Charles Radtke poses on the scale during the UFC 315 official weigh-in at the Le Centre Sheraton Montreal Hotel on May 09, 2025 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

MONTREAL, QUEBEC – MAY 09: Charles Radtke poses on the scale during the UFC 315 official weigh-in at the Le Centre Sheraton Montreal Hotel on May 09, 2025 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Welterweight: Charles Radtke (-162) vs. Daniel Frunza (+136)
Best Win for Radtke? Matthew Semelsberger For Frunza? Vadym Kutsyi
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Both men have been hurt multiple times inside the Octagon
How these two match up: I don’t expect this bout to go the distance.

Radtke is a good — not great — Welterweight boxer with some nice snap to his punches. Unfortunately, he’s also fairly hittable and has been put down on more than one occasion. Frunza, meanwhile, is a high-volume fighter who has been knocked down on both of his trips to the Octagon. He’s the more likely of the two to drag the fight to the floor, but this reads more like a standup fight overall.

So … who knocks out who? I like the crispness of Radtke’s punches a little more, but I have to say that I trust Frunza more in a firefight. He got absolutely walloped by Rhys McKee multiple times and still managed to pop back up and swing hard. Were it not for the doctor stoppage after the round concluded, he might have worked his way back into the fight.

I expect that same grit to make the difference in this knock-down-drag-out firefight.

Prediction: Frunza via knockout

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MAY 31: Allan Nascimento of Brazil elbows Jafel Filho of Brazil in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on May 31, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MAY 31: Allan Nascimento of Brazil elbows Jafel Filho of Brazil in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on May 31, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Flyweight: Allan Nascimento (-265) vs. Cody Durden (+215)
Best Win for Nascimento? Jafel Filho For Durden? Charles Johnson
Current Streak: Nascimento has won three straight, while Durden lost his last two
X-Factor: Durden took the fight on very short-notice
How these two match up: This collision of Flyweight grapplers should produce some outstanding scrambles.

Nascimento has quietly put together a nice little streak at 125-pounds primarily on the strength of his jiu-jitsu. The BJJ black belt has 15 submissions in 21 victories, and he’s also proven himself a scrapper when the takedown fails. Durden is happy to throw hands as well despite his wrestling background. He’s an all-offense fighter who sometimes fatigues from his own pace, but “Custom Made” is a consistently tough out for whoever stands opposite him.

The odds are explained here almost entirely by the circumstances. Durden is the more accomplished fighter with better wins on his record, but he’s stepping up here on less than two week’s notice to replace Rafael Estevam. For a man who already struggles with pace, that’s a huge issue.

Durden is the sharper striker and likely has the takedown defense to keep things upright, but Nascimento is going to push the pace. As Durden starts to feel that pressure, his wrestling instincts will kick in, and one bad shot is all Nascimento needs for the jiu-jitsu to take over.

A second round rear naked choke feels about right.

Prediction: Nascimento via submission

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 53-27

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