UFC Vegas 111 preview and predictions: Randy Brown or Gabriel Bonfim — who’s a legit contender?

Like Isaac Dulgarian’s performance against Yadier del Valle, UFC Vegas 111 is absolutely awful.

Listen, I’m all for the philosophy of “wait until the fights are over before you judge the card.” But on-paper, it doesn’t get worse than UFC Vegas 111. A Randy Brown UFC main event was never something I expected to see, regardless of location. The veteran welterweight will look to fend off Brazilian prospect Gabriel Bonfim, who enters off the heels of one of the year’s more controversial decision wins.

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Violence potential is the best that can be asked for from UFC Vegas 111, and thankfully, there are some sprinkles throughout. Otherwise, you’d likely have to play drinking games Saturday night to stay entertained by arguably the worst slate of fights the UFC has ever organized.

👑 UFC Vegas 111 lineup Crown grade: F-. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

170 pounds: Gabriel Bonfim (-185) vs. Randy Brown (+150)

Bonfim vs. Brown is one of those fights that should tell us exactly where Bonfim stands after his first high-profile test against Stephen Thompson this past July — although one could argue that Thompson split decision win told us enough.

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MMA math doesn’t help Bonfim’s case in this matchup either, at least when it comes to his and Brown’s common opponent, Nicolas Dalby, who finished Bonfim and got finished by Brown. Though then there’s also Khaos Williams, who Brown defeated via split decision and Bonfim submitted.

For the most part, Bonfim has been pretty impressive in his near-flawless 19-fight career, aside from the Dalby and Thompson performances. Brown’s current stretch has also seen him really put things together, as he should arguably be 9-1 in his last 10, depending on how you felt about his late-2024 decision against Bryan Battle.

Stylistically, Bonfim is typically all violence, all momentum. Tasked with a veteran like Brown, he’ll have to overcome height, reach and the composure “Rudeboy” brings to the matchup. However, Brown is prone to long lulls that could let the Brazilian steal rounds with pressure.

If Bonfim avoids overextending into counters, his sharp boxing and body work can carry him through. Brown’s experience will make it tricky, and while this feels like Bonfim’s rebound spot to silence doubt from the last bout, Brown is too sharply well-rounded at this stage. Expect it to be close, nonetheless.

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Pick: Brown

125 pounds: Matt Schnell (+260) vs. Joseph Morales (-325)

A Matt Schnell co-main event in 2025 is another thing I never anticipated.

Schnell, for better or worse, never met a fire-fight he didn’t like. He’s been historically slick, fast and technical, but tends to brawl like he’s allergic to his own defense. Joseph Morales, on the other hand, is steadier and has been quietly rebuilding his career after years outside the UFC spotlight. Though let’s not kid ourselves — the guy lost to the future two-time champion Deiveson Figueiredo during his first UFC run, followed by a split decision to Eric Shelton. There wasn’t any shame in either of those losses.

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Morales isn’t the flashiest guy, but he’s opportunistic and durable enough to weather Schnell’s early flurries. If Schnell fights with control — big “if” — he’s dangerous anywhere. But Morales has a knack for capitalizing when things get wild, and with Schnell’s chin being what it is, one mistake should flip this quick.

Pick: Morales

170 pounds: Muslim Salikhov (+145) vs. Uroš Medić (-175)

Muslim Salikhov vs. Uroš Medić feels like a generational clash — the old-school kung fu brawler versus the new-wave chaos merchant.

Spoiler alert: Kung fu is cool again.

Salikhov’s striking is still sharp, but the 40-year-old “King of Kung Fu” has lost a step. The speed and explosion that once made him a nightmare to time just aren’t quite there anymore. Regardless, he’s still finding ways to smoke fools, riding a three-fight win streak into Saturday’s matchup. One of those wins even came via a freaking spinning wheel kick. The man is proving to be an ageless wonder.

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Medić, meanwhile, has a tailor-made style to get blasted by one of these wacky kung fu strikes Salikhov shouldn’t still be pulling off. It’s all risk, all the time for Medić. When it works, he looks great, like in his latest win over Gilbert Urbina. But then, when it doesn’t work, he face-plants.

A measured Medić has all the attributes to win this fight. His pace and youth alone can — and should — overwhelm Salikhov, who’s become increasingly hittable in recent outings. But if he gets too wild, Salikhov’s counters can make him pay dearly. I’m leaning toward the latter. The Salikhov title push starts now. Better late than never, right?

I’m only joking. (Sort of.)

Pick: Salikhov

155 pounds: Chris Padilla (+165) vs. Ismael Bonfim (-200)

At a glance, Chris Padilla looks like a setup opponent from the UFC — a chance for Ismael Bonfim to bounce back and keep the brotherly hype alive after being humbled in his last outing.

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Bonfim entered the promotion riding a healthy wave of hype before getting stifled by Benoît Saint-Denis. His striking remains sharp, technical and fast, but questions linger about how he handles pressure and adversity against more experienced opposition. On the other hand, Padilla is a gritty newcomer who’s been around the regional scene for years — tough, durable, and willing to scrap, but not exactly a proven threat at this level.

Expect Bonfim to keep his composure and fight behind his jab, slicing through Padilla without much trouble. But if the Brazilian gets sloppy or lets frustration creep in, Padilla’s brawler instincts could make things ugly in a hurry. The dirtier, the better for him.

This feels like Bonfim’s fight to steady the ship and remind everyone why he was hyped in the first place.

Pick: Bonfim

135 pounds: Ricky Simón (-175) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+145)

It’s somewhat mindblowing that Ricky Simón vs. Raoni Barcelos isn’t the co-main event of UFC Vegas 111, but whatever. This is one of those sneaky good bantamweight matchups that could’ve easily been a top-15 fight a year or two ago.

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Simón’s wrestling and pressure are still top-tier, but his three-fight skid last year showed the holes in his striking defense and how badly things go when he can’t dictate pace. Barcelos, meanwhile, is a technical monster when he’s “on” — crisp boxing, clean counters and underrated grappling overall. And that’s a high compliment considering he might be best known for his grappling. Consistency has been his biggest enemy at age 38. Time isn’t on the Brazilian’s side.

Simón should be able to carry his momentum into this matchup and get back to his bread-and-butter grind, avoiding wild exchanges. He’ll smother Barcelos while seeking a concussive shot, akin to his win over Raphael Assuncao.

Pick: Simón

185 pounds: Christian Leroy Duncan (+160) vs. Marco Tulio (-190)

Any faith I had in Christian Leroy Duncan to be a serious contender has yet to be restored after his losses to Armen Petrosyan and Gregory Rodrigues. It doesn’t help to have a talented Marco Tulio on the other side of the equation this time out, either.

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Duncan has that flashy, fluid striking style the UFC loves to promote, but he’s been guilty of relying on it a bit too much. His creativity is fun, sure, but his defensive lapses and overconfidence have already cost him momentum. As for Tulio, he’s the polar opposite — measured, methodical, and happy to make things ugly if it means getting the job done. He’s not going to wow anyone with flash, but he’s effective, and that counts for something in a division full of highlight hunters.

Stylistically, Duncan really shouldn’t have much trouble countering and piecing his way up to a victory. But Tulio’s grinding clinch game aids in his likelihood to outpoint the Brit, or even find a finish. I’ve liked his recent performances a bit better than his opponent’s, so there you have it.

Pick: Tulio

Preliminary Notes

Can we take a moment to study the fall of Mayra Bueno Silva? “Sheetara” surged out of nowhere to become a bantamweight contender upon her divisional return in 2022. She grappled her way to a title shot — but the lackluster performances have only snowballed since. After three straight losses and two more division changes, she returns to 135 pounds this Saturday to fight Jacqueline Cavalcanti.

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Realistically, all of that just perfectly encapsulates the state of the women’s bantamweight division. If Cavalcanti wins, she’ll be on a five-fight win streak in the UFC — eight overall. That’s almost enough for title shot consideration these days.

Quick picks:

• Jamall Emmers (+125) def. Hyder Amil (-150)

• Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-250) def. Mayra Bueno Silva (+200)

• Josh Hokit (-425) def. Max Gimenis (+310)

• Daniel Marcos (-185) def. Miles Johns (+150)

• Denise Gomes (-190) def. Tecia Pennington (+155)

• Zachary Reese (N/A) def. Jackson McVey (N/A)