The North Carolina Tar Heels are back to square one on the football field. After last Saturday’s disappointing, 28-12 loss at Wake Forest, UNC finds itself now needing wins in each of its last two games – that is, if bowl eligibility is still a goal.
North Carolina’s (4-6, 2-4 ACC) next test comes this Saturday at 3:30 p.m. against archrival Duke, which travels to Kenan Stadium this year. The Blue Devils (5-5, 4-2), despite losing three of their last four, are playing at a much higher level than their Tar Heel counterparts.
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The stories of last week’s UNC loss were defensive regression and failure to finish drives.
Two weeks after holding Syracuse to a field goal – and one week after limiting Stanford to three points through three quarters, North Carolina allowed 400+ yards and 28 points to an average Wake (7-3, 4-3 ACC) offense. The Tar Heels marched past midfield several times, but settled for four field goals. Saturday marked UNC’s first time all season failing to score a touchdown.
Duke lost by 17 to Virginia at home last week, following a 3-point loss at UConn two weeks ago. The Blue Devils sport a borderline-Top 5 offense amongst ACC teams, but a bottom-5 defense.
If you remember 2024’s edition of the Victory Bell battle, North Carolina watched a 17-0 halftime lead disappear. The Tar Heels generated just one field goal in the second half, while Duke rode a red-hot Star Thomas to victory.
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Keep reading below for Saturday’s game preview, which includes North Carolina’s key to victory, something to watch, odds, statistical leaders and a season schedule.
Key to Victory
Nov 15, 2025; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons wide receiver Carlos Hernandez (8) runs with the ball against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wake Forest Athletics via Imagn Images
Limit the big plays.
With an offense led by the ACC’s top quarterback in Maalik Murphy, Duke is a dangerous threat to score in bunches. The Blue Devils’ offense is significantly scarier than Wake’s, so Saturday could spell big trouble for UNC.
North Carolina needs to generate pressure, tackle upon first contact and be aware of where the football is at all times against Duke.
Something to Watch
WINSTON-SALEM, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 15: Demon June #12 of the North Carolina Tar Heels is tackled by Jacob Cosby-Mosley #28 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half of a football game at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium on November 15, 2025 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
If the Tar Heels can establish their rushing attack early.
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When a defense takes away an offense’s run game, that offense’s quarterback is put in a tight spot. Despite turnover-free football against Wake, UNC quarterback Gio Lopez completed just 21 of his 36 passes, though he surpassed the 200 yards mark.
North Carolina only carried the football 24 times for 56 yards against the Demon Deacons, led by 32 yards on nine carries from June.
Duke allowed Virginia to rush for 224 yards last weekend, so things look promising for the Tar Heels entering Saturday.
Stat leaders
WINSTON-SALEM, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 15: Gio Lopez #7 hands the ball of to Demon June #12 of the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first half of a football game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium on November 15, 2025 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
Passing
UNC: Gio Lopez 138 of 218, 1,425 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT
Duke: Darian Mensah 242 of 256, 3,007 yards, 25 TD, 4 INT
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Rushing
UNC: Demon June 76 carries, 452 yards, 2 TD
Duke: Nate Sheppard 112 carries, 700 yards, 7 TD
Receiving
UNC: Jordan Shipp 44 receptions, 498 yards, 4 TD
Duke: Cooper Barkate 53 receptions, 869 yards, 6 TD
What you need to know
TarHeelsWire How to Watch
WHAT? North Carolina Tar Heels (4-6, 2-4 ACC) vs. Duke Blue Devils (5-5, 4-2 ACC)
WHEN? Saturday, November 22 at 3:30 p.m.
WHERE? Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC
TV? ACC Network
RADIO? SiriusXM (Channels 193 and 391)
WEATHER? 71 degrees, partly cloudy
LINE? Duke -6.5
ALL-TIME: UNC leads, 65-41-4
LAST MEETING? Duke 21, UNC 20 on 9/28/24 in Wallace Wade Stadium
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PREDICTION? Duke 27, UNC 20
2025 UNC Football Schedule
Oct 28, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a North Carolina Tar Heels helmet on the field before a game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Sept. 1: vs. TCU (L, 48-14)
Sept. 6: at Charlotte (W, 20-3)
Sept 13: vs. Richmond (W, 41-6)
Sept. 20: at UCF (L, 34-9)
Oct. 4: vs. Clemson (L, 38-10)
Oct. 17: at Cal (L, 21-18)
Oct 25: vs. Virginia (L, 17-16
Oct 31: at Syracuse (W, 27-10)
Nov. 8: vs Stanford (W, 20-15
Nov. 15: at Wake Forest (L, 28-12)
Nov. 22: vs. Duke
Nov. 29: at NC State (7:30 p.m.)
This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Football vs. Duke: Preview, info, prediction and more
